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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee20
BY 7final margin
DolphinsMiami27
Tennessee Titans 20 at Miami Dolphins 27. Final.
Titans -1 upsetO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Miami Dolphins 27, Titans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 6:57, 2nd and 4, on Malcolm Butler — 32.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:57 · 2nd and 4
Malcolm Butler
Titans
(6:57) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN -1. 21-M.Butler to TEN 33 for 34 yards (80-D.Amendola).
Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 27–20. Biggest swing: Q3 6:57, Titans +32.6% win probability on one snap.
32.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetDolphinsQ4 14:174-R.Succop kicks 67 yards from TEN 35 to MIA -2. 19-J.Grant for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27.3pts
Reshad JonesDolphinsQ4 6:20(6:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short left intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at MIA 34. 20-R.Jones to TEN 12 for 54 yards (64-J.Kline).
17.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Dolphins at 2 of 10 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Titans at 2 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.29 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Titans166 of 178 plays carry both curves
(6:57) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN -1. 21-M.Butler to TEN 33 for 34 yards (80-D.Amendola).
Swing −32.6 for DolphinsExpected points −4.78 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 7 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:57TEN +33% win prob(6:57) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN -1. 21-M.Butler to TEN 33 for 34 yards (80-D.Amendola).
4th · 14:17MIA +27% win prob4-R.Succop kicks 67 yards from TEN 35 to MIA -2. 19-J.Grant for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:20TEN +17% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short left intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at MIA 34. 20-R.Jones to TEN 12 for 54 yards (64-J.Kline).
3rd · 6:47TEN +16% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 33-D.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso at TEN 29. 47-K.Alonso to TEN 28 for 1 yard (64-J.Kline).
3rd · 9:19TEN +14% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left intended for 19-T.Sharpe INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at MIA 39. 20-R.Jones to TEN 35 for 26 yards (88-L.Stocker). Penalty on MIA-97-J.Phillips, Taunting, offsetting. Penalty on TEN-33-D.Lewis, Taunting, offsetting. Penalty on MIA-28-B.McCain, Taunting, offsetting.
4th · 10:33MIA +13% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jakeem Grant's 102-yard return touchdown with 14:17 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:22Ryan Succop·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–0
2nd11:26Kenny Stills·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+73–7
3rd4:09Jason Sanders·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap J.Denney+33–10
4th14:17Jakeem Grant·102-yd return TD102-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+710–17
4th10:33Kenny Stills·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+710–24
4th10:22Darius Jennings·94-yd return TD94-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+717–24
4th3:53Jason Sanders·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap J.Denney+317–27
4th0:16Ryan Succop·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryDolphins
Titans3–5Dolphins
336Total yards344
5.0Yards per play6.1
40%Success rate46%
43%Third-down rate20%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays6
17First downs16
0Sacks taken1
3Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.29Titans: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.01Dolphins: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.45Titans: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Titans: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.11Dolphins: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 67 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 56 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Dolphins 7.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins2.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.9 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 10.9 points below their season mean of 13.5% and 1.4 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
53 dressed · 9 never used
71Dennis KellyOT · Every snap100%69 snaps
64Josh KlineG · Every snap100%69 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%69 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap99%68 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Full-time84%58 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
82Delanie WalkerTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
18Rishard MatthewsWR · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
66Kevin PamphileG · Rotational49%34 snaps
7Blaine GabbertQB · Rotational48%33 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Rotational36%25 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
13Taywan TaylorWR · Situational13%9 snaps
15Darius JenningsWR · Situational9%6 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Matt DickersonDEKendrick LewisFSAaron StinnieGWill ComptonILBRashaan EvansLBHarold LandryOLBJack ConklinTAnthony FirkserTECameron BatsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−50% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:57) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN -1. 21-M.Butler to TEN 33 for 34 yards (80-D.Amendola).
Q3 6:57 · Dolphins · 2nd & goal at TEN 4 · gained nothing · -4.78 EP · −50.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 93 yards from the MIA 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.3874%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0458%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.3524%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0363%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.4157%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.680%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Titans3Dolphins0
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Dolphins 28
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 38
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Dolphins 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 2 to the Dolphins 23
2nd quarter44 plays
Titans3Dolphins6
Titans3Dolphins7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Titans 10
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 45
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Titans 15
Punt13 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Dolphins 45
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 19
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 39
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Titans3Dolphins10
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 6
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Dolphins 20
4th quarter59 plays
Titans9Dolphins10
Titans10Dolphins10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 4
Titans10Dolphins16
Titans10Dolphins17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 42
Titans10Dolphins23
Titans10Dolphins24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 25
Titans16Dolphins24
Titans17Dolphins24
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Dolphins 41
Titans17Dolphins27
Field goal5 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 43
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Titans 40
Titans20Dolphins27
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Dolphins 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -1
Closing total
43.5
Titans moneyline
-115
Dolphins moneyline
+104
Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 47 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 86°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south-west; 0.18 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Titans 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Adam Gase
(10:33) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:30MIA +12% win prob(:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to MIA 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 17 for -1 yards (32-D.Fluellen).
4th · 10:22MIA +12% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 59 yards from MIA 35 to TEN 6. 15-D.Jennings for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
