2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Miami DolphinsWinner

TEN -1 upsetO 43.5 ✓Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 27–20. Biggest swing: Q3 6:57, TEN +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:57TEN — MIA MIA ball · 2nd & 4MIA 76%

(6:57) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN -1. 21-M.Butler to TEN 33 for 34 yards (80-D.Amendola).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:57TEN +33% win prob(6:57) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 86-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN -1. 21-M.Butler to TEN 33 for 34 yards (80-D.Amendola).
Q4 · 14:17MIA +27% win prob4-R.Succop kicks 67 yards from TEN 35 to MIA -2. 19-J.Grant for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 6:20TEN +17% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short left intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at MIA 34. 20-R.Jones to TEN 12 for 54 yards (64-J.Kline).
Q3 · 6:47TEN +16% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 33-D.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso at TEN 29. 47-K.Alonso to TEN 28 for 1 yard (64-J.Kline).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Dolphins
Offensive plays	67	56
Total yards	336	344 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.29	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	40%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

20/28, 230 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Blaine GabbertQB

11/22, 117 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · -20.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Dion LewisRB

16 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Frank GoreRB

9 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Kenny StillsWR

4/5 for 106 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

6/13 for 62 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · -3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 35	10	37	4:42	Turnover on downs
2	MIA	MIA 22	6	21	2:40	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 20	11	78	5:56	Turnover on downs
4	MIA	MIA 2	13	88	5:21	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	7	15	3:10	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 15	11	80	6:17	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 15	7	25	1:36	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 17	1	0	0:18	End of half
9	MIA	MIA 25	5	7	1:28	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 49	4	6	1:27	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 10	4	8	2:07	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 35	2	4	0:54	Interception
13	MIA	TEN 35	5	26	2:17	Interception
14	TEN	TEN 33	1	0	0:05	Interception
15	MIA	TEN 28	6	19	2:37	Turnover on downs
16	TEN	TEN 25	11	70	4:48	Touchdown
17	MIA	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 25	8	27	2:25	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 11	5	89	1:17	Touchdown
20	TEN	—	2	0	0:11	Defensive touchdown
21	MIA	MIA 25	4	6	1:24	Interception
22	TEN	TEN 43	6	16	2:43	Interception
23	MIA	TEN 12	4	0	2:15	Turnover on downs
24	TEN	TEN 25	6	18	0:42	Turnover on downs
25	MIA	TEN 43	4	0	2:00	Punt
26	TEN	TEN 20	6	40	0:56	Turnover on downs
27	MIA	TEN 48	2	0	0:11	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 89 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blaine Gabbert	11/22	117	0	1	0	-7.0
Marcus Mariota	9/16	103	0	2	0	-12.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dion Lewis	16	75	4.7	1	1.0
Derrick Henry	10	26	2.6	0	-3.0
Marcus Mariota	3	15	5.0	0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	6	13	62	34%	-3.4
Delanie Walker	4	7	52	18%	-4.9
Luke Stocker	2	2	37	5%	2.7
Dion Lewis	5	8	35	21%	-6.5
Tajae Sharpe	1	3	17	8%	-5.0
Jonnu Smith	1	3	12	8%	-0.3
Derrick Henry	1	1	5	3%	-0.4
Taywan Taylor	0	1	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Wesley Woodyard	3	5	0.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	4	3	0.0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	4	1	0.0	1	1
Malcolm Butler	4	1	0.0	1	2
Adoree' Jackson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Kamalei Correa	1	2	1.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jayon Brown	2	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Kline	2	0	0.0	0	0
Daren Bates	1	1	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	20/28	230	2	2	1	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	9	61	6.8	0.7
Kenyan Drake	14	48	3.4	-3.2
Albert Wilson	2	7	3.5	-0.1
Ryan Tannehill	4	4	1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Stills	4	5	106	2	18%	8.0
Jakeem Grant	5	7	38	0	25%	1.2
Albert Wilson	3	4	31	0	14%	2.4
Danny Amendola	4	6	26	0	21%	-2.6
Kenyan Drake	3	4	18	0	14%	-1.5
Mike Gesicki	1	2	11	0	7%	-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
T.J. McDonald	6	1	0	0
Reshad Jones	4	3	2	2
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	3	0	1
Jerome Baker	3	3	0	0
Xavien Howard	2	2	0	0
Akeem Spence	2	2	0	0
Cameron Wake	1	2	0	0
Vincent Taylor	2	1	0	0
Kiko Alonso	3	0	1	1
Davon Godchaux	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -1
Closing total: 43.5
TEN moneyline: -115
MIA moneyline: +104

Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 47 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 89°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: TEN 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Adam Gase