2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -2 upsetU 43.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, ARI +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00WAS — ARI WAS ball · 2nd & 10WAS 55%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-R.Nkemdiche].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00ARI +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-R.Nkemdiche].
Q2 · 8:46ARI +8% win prob(8:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 86-J.Reed pushed ob at ARI 27 for 22 yards (41-A.Bethea).
Q1 · 14:19ARI +7% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 86-J.Reed to WAS 44 for 16 yards (36-B.Baker). PENALTY on ARI-33-T.Boston, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 44.
Q1 · 10:29WAS +7% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left [20-D.Bucannon]. PENALTY on WAS-11-A.Smith, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at ARI 29.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Cardinals
Offensive plays	74	51
Total yards	430 (edge)	214
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	54% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	49%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.38
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	1/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

21/30, 255 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.3 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Sam BradfordQB

20/34, 153 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.8 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

26 att, 96 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris ThompsonRB

5 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Larry FitzgeraldWR

7/10 for 76 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

2/3 for 70 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 23	10	38	4:47	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 8	8	32	4:26	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 20	12	80	5:53	Touchdown
4	ARI	ARI 25	5	3	1:38	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 27	16	73	9:06	Touchdown
6	ARI	ARI 25	5	2	0:51	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 8	11	70	3:11	Touchdown
8	ARI	ARI 25	2	0	0:08	End of half
9	ARI	ARI 25	6	34	2:08	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 8	4	-4	0:45	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 31	4	4	1:00	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 8	13	53	6:46	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 15	6	38	2:26	Interception
14	WAS	WAS 24	10	58	4:42	Turnover on downs
15	ARI	ARI 25	15	71	6:26	Touchdown
16	WAS	WAS 6	5	9	1:17	Punt
17	ARI	WAS 26	5	19	1:10	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 7	3	53	1:35	Fumble
19	ARI	ARI 40	6	11	1:39	Fumble
20	WAS	WAS 49	1	0	0:06	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	21/30	255	2	0	3	13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	26	96	3.7	1	0.7
Chris Thompson	5	65	13.0	0	3.9
Alex Smith	8	14	1.8	0	-0.6
Rob Kelley	3	7	2.3	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adrian Peterson	2	3	70	0	10%	-0.7
Chris Thompson	6	7	63	1	24%	6.2
Jordan Reed	4	5	48	1	17%	5.9
Jamison Crowder	3	4	32	0	14%	3.9
Paul Richardson	4	6	22	0	21%	-1.7
Josh Doctson	1	3	11	0	10%	-0.4
Vernon Davis	1	1	9	0	3%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Zach Brown	5	0	0	0
D.J. Swearinger	5	0	0	1
Quinton Dunbar	4	1	1	3
Montae Nicholson	5	0	0	0
Mason Foster	2	2	0	0
Zach Vigil	3	0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	1	0	0
Fabian Moreau	1	1	0	0
Adrian Peterson	1	0	0	0
Josh Norman	1	0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Bradford	20/34	153	0	1	2	-14.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	9	37	4.1	1	1.5
Chase Edmonds	4	24	6.0	0	0.8
Sam Bradford	2	7	3.5	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Larry Fitzgerald	7	10	76	29%	2.1
David Johnson	5	9	30	26%	-4.6
Chase Edmonds	4	4	24	12%	0.3
Ricky Seals-Jones	3	6	19	18%	-5.9
Christian Kirk	1	2	4	6%	-2.4
Chad Williams	0	3	0	9%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Budda Baker	8	3	0.0	0
Josh Bynes	8	3	0.0	0
Antoine Bethea	9	1	0.0	0
Deone Bucannon	5	2	0.0	0
Tre Boston	5	1	0.0	1
Corey Peters	4	1	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	3	1	0.0	0
Jamar Taylor	3	0	0.0	0
Robert Nkemdiche	3	0	1.0	0
Chandler Jones	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -2
Closing total: 43.5
WAS moneyline: +117
ARI moneyline: -129

Cardinals closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: WAS 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Steve Wilks