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2018 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 13, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore23
BY 11final margin
BengalsCincinnati34
Baltimore Ravens 23 at Cincinnati Bengals 34. Final.
Bengals -1 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
Cincinnati Bengals 34, Ravens 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:24, 1st and 10, on Jessie Bates — 15.3 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:24 · 1st and 10
Jessie Bates
Bengals
(12:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at BAL 37. 30-J.Bates to BAL 16 for 21 yards (15-M.Crabtree).
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Cincinnati Bengals 34–23. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, Bengals +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. GreenBengalsQ1 6:33(6:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [48-P.Onwuasor].
9.8pts
John BrownRavensQ4 9:41(9:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 13-J.Brown for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Ravens199 of 213 plays carry both curves
(12:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at BAL 37. 30-J.Bates to BAL 16 for 21 yards (15-M.Crabtree).
Swing +15.3 for BengalsExpected points +5.44 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 6 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:24BAL +15% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at BAL 37. 30-J.Bates to BAL 16 for 21 yards (15-M.Crabtree).
1st · 6:33CIN +10% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [48-P.Onwuasor].
4th · 9:41CIN +10% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 13-J.Brown for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:15BAL +6% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 25 for -1 yards (97-G.Atkins).
1st · 11:27CIN +6% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Eifert. PENALTY on BAL-23-T.Jefferson, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BAL 12 - No Play.
3rd · 2:08BAL +6% win prob(2:08) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle intended for 13-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams [96-C.Dunlap] at CIN 24. 36-S.Williams to CIN 25 for 1 yard (13-J.Brown).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Green's 4-yard touchdown catch with 10:40 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:40A.J. Green·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy DaltonLead never changed again+70–7
1st6:33A.J. Green·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+70–14
2nd13:07A.J. Green·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+70–21
2nd3:04Tyler Boyd·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+77–28
2nd0:12Mark Andrews·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+714–28
3rd12:35Justin Tucker·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+317–28
4th9:41John Brown·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · two-point no good+623–28
4th3:03Randy Bullock·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+323–31
4th2:29Randy Bullock·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+323–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens4–5Bengals
425Total yards373
5.3Yards per play5.3
48%Success rate41%
47%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
26First downs21
4Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Ravens: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.22Bengals: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Ravens: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.15Bengals: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 80 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Bengals’s 70 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Bengals 5.
NoteRavens outgained Bengals 425-373 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 2 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 1.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bengals16.9%
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 70.6 points above their season mean of 29.4% and 2.4 times their own 29.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
53 dressed · 7 never used
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%85 snaps
72Alex LewisG · Every snap100%85 snaps
74James HurstG · Every snap100%85 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%85 snaps
5Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%85 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Full-time86%73 snaps
15Michael CrabtreeWR · Full-time86%73 snaps
13John BrownWR · Full-time80%68 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation67%57 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation51%43 snaps
37Javorius AllenRB · Rotational49%42 snaps
34Alex CollinsRB · Rotational49%42 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational41%35 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational33%28 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Rotational31%26 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Situational14%12 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Situational7%6 snaps
42Patrick RicardDL · Situational6%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Maurice CanadyCBWillie HenryDTZach SielerDTRobert Griffin IIIQBJermaine EluemunorTHayden HurstTEJordan LasleyWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at BAL 37. 30-J.Bates to BAL 16 for 21 yards (15-M.Crabtree).
Q1 12:24 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at BAL 18 · gained nothing · -5.44 EP · −14.2% win probability
198 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 213 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 213 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 87 yards from the BAL 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
213 of 213 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
213
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
798
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0686%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1872%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.1364%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2943%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-1.3057%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.080%
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
213 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
213 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 26
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, two receivers and one linemanDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Ravens0Bengals6
Ravens0Bengals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 1
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 29 to midfield
Ravens0Bengals13
Ravens0Bengals14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Ravens 32
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 26
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Ravens 12
2nd quarter64 plays
Ravens0Bengals20
Ravens0Bengals21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 7
Ravens6Bengals21
Ravens7Bengals21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 1
Ravens7Bengals27
Ravens7Bengals28
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Ravens 9
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 38
Punt4 plays
Ravens13Bengals28
Ravens14Bengals28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Bengals 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 41
Ravens17Bengals28
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bengals 37
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 40
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Bengals 44
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Ravens 37
Intercepted6 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 49
4th quarter57 plays
Punt2 plays
Ravens23Bengals28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Bengals 16
Ravens23Bengals31
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 10
Fumble lost5 plays
Ravens23Bengals34
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 22
The period ended17 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -1
Closing total
43
Ravens moneyline
+104
Bengals moneyline
-115
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 43; the game landed 57 — over by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Ravens 4 days · Bengals 4 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Marvin Lewis
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:30CIN +5% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Brown. PENALTY on CIN-27-D.Kirkpatrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at CIN 31 - No Play.
1st · 12:37CIN +5% win prob(12:37) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-J.Grant to BAL 22 for 2 yards (29-T.McRae; 42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (29-T.McRae), recovered by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 18. 25-T.Young to BAL 18 for no gain (57-V.Rey).
