2018 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 13, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -1 ✓O 43 ✓Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.

Cincinnati Bengals 34–23. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, BAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:24BAL — CIN BAL ball · 1st & 10CIN 52%

(12:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at BAL 37. 30-J.Bates to BAL 16 for 21 yards (15-M.Crabtree).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:24BAL +15% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at BAL 37. 30-J.Bates to BAL 16 for 21 yards (15-M.Crabtree).
Q1 · 6:33CIN +10% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [48-P.Onwuasor].
Q4 · 9:41CIN +10% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 13-J.Brown for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:15BAL +6% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 25 for -1 yards (97-G.Atkins).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bengals
Offensive plays	80	70
Total yards	425 (edge)	373
Yards per play	5.3	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	74%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Ravens outgained Bengals 425–373 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

32/55, 376 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-9.0 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

24/42, 265 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

21 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

9 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

John BrownWR

4/10 for 92 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

6/9 for 91 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	5	0	1:36	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 31	4	-1	1:00	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 18	1	0	0:11	Interception
4	CIN	BAL 16	5	5	1:38	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 29	7	26	2:25	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 20	6	80	1:44	Touchdown
7	BAL	BAL 25	5	1	2:31	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 28	13	67	5:53	Touchdown
9	BAL	BAL 25	12	68	4:42	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 22	14	78	5:22	Touchdown
11	BAL	BAL 25	9	37	1:36	Turnover on downs
12	CIN	CIN 38	4	0	0:20	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 19	8	51	0:54	Touchdown
14	CIN	—	1	0	0:08	End of half
15	CIN	CIN 25	6	16	1:24	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 35	5	28	1:06	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 24	7	16	3:20	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 21	6	36	2:35	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	CIN 43	6	20	1:58	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 9	6	38	2:37	Interception
21	CIN	CIN 25	6	25	2:10	Punt
22	BAL	BAL 13	13	92	5:15	Touchdown
23	CIN	CIN 25	11	60	6:36	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	BAL 25	4	0	0:17	Fumble
25	CIN	BAL 29	4	7	0:17	Turnover on downs
26	BAL	BAL 25	14	48	2:25	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 92 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	32/55	376	2	2	4	-9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	9	35	3.9	0	-2.1
Joe Flacco	3	8	2.7	0	1.3
Javorius Allen	6	8	1.3	1	-1.4
Maxx Williams	1	7	7.0	0	0.9
Lamar Jackson	2	6	3.0	0	-0.4
Chris Moore	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
John Brown	4	10	92	1	19%	4.9
Michael Crabtree	5	10	56	0	19%	-5.8
Alex Collins	3	4	55	0	8%	2.9
Willie Snead	5	8	54	0	15%	-4.4
Javorius Allen	5	7	36	0	13%	-4.9
Maxx Williams	3	3	31	0	6%	2.3
Nick Boyle	2	4	26	0	8%	0.6
Mark Andrews	3	4	17	1	8%	4.5
Chris Moore	2	3	9	0	6%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Tony Jefferson	6	3	1
Patrick Onwuasor	3	5	0
Kenny Young	5	3	0
Marlon Humphrey	5	2	0
Eric Weddle	5	1	1
Tavon Young	4	0	0
Brandon Carr	2	1	1
Matt Judon	3	0	0
Javorius Allen	2	0	0
Chris Wormley	2	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	24/42	265	4	0	0	9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	21	84	4.0	-2.3
Giovani Bernard	6	27	4.5	-0.5
John Ross	1	-3	-3.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	6	9	91	1	22%	6.1
A.J. Green	5	9	69	3	22%	8.0
C.J. Uzomah	3	4	45	0	10%	2.3
Tyler Eifert	2	4	23	0	10%	-0.8
Giovani Bernard	4	7	15	0	17%	-2.9
Tyler Kroft	2	2	11	0	5%	0.9
John Ross	1	4	8	0	10%	-2.2
Joe Mixon	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.5
Josh Malone	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Darqueze Dennard	7	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Vigil	6	3	0.0	0	1
Hardy Nickerson	5	3	0.0	0	1
Shawn Williams	6	2	1.0	1	1
Jordan Evans	4	2	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	3	2	1.0	0	0
Geno Atkins	2	3	2.0	0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	2	1	0.0	0	1
Jessie Bates	3	0	0.0	1	1
Clayton Fejedelem	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1
Closing total: 43
BAL moneyline: +104
CIN moneyline: -115

Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 43; the game landed 57 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: BAL 4 days · CIN 4 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Marvin Lewis

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.