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Carolina Panthers 24 at Atlanta Falcons 31. Final.
Falcons -5.5 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
Atlanta Falcons 31, Panthers 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:08, 3rd and 8, on Calvin Ridley — 9.1 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:08 · 3rd and 8
Calvin Ridley
Falcons
(4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Falcons closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Atlanta Falcons 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 4:08, Falcons +9.1% win probability on one snap.
9.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cam NewtonPanthersQ2 12:22(12:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left end to ATL 23 for 10 yards (27-D.Kazee). Penalty on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-11-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
8.9pts
Tevin ColemanFalconsQ2 7:13(7:13) 26-T.Coleman right tackle to CAR 24 for 36 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), ball out of bounds at CAR 24.
8.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.54 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.12 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Panthers at 5 of 11 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Panthers164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +9.1 for FalconsExpected points +3.16 for FalconsThe model had Panthers 12 points higher than the market did.play 61
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:08ATL +9% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:22ATL +9% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left end to ATL 23 for 10 yards (27-D.Kazee). Penalty on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-11-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
2nd · 7:13ATL +8% win prob(7:13) 26-T.Coleman right tackle to CAR 24 for 36 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), ball out of bounds at CAR 24.
2nd · 0:28ATL +8% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:20ATL +8% win prob(8:20) 26-T.Coleman right end pushed ob at CAR 31 for 27 yards (26-D.Jackson).
2nd · 1:52ATL +7% win prob(1:52) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-31-L.Doss. Penalty on ATL-28-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Hooper's 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:28 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:40Graham Gano·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+33–0
1st5:46Matt Bryant·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+33–3
Falcons ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.22Falcons: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Panthers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.54Falcons: +0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Panthers: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.13Falcons: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 65 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Falcons’s 60 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.9 pts in week 1 against −4.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 69.4% in week 1 against 46.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 45.7% in week 1 against 71.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 1 against 6.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.3 pts in week 1 against +5.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons12.0%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -4.6 pts, 8.8 points below their season mean of 4.1 pts and 1.9 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:08 · Falcons · 3rd & 8 at CAR 11 · gained 11 · +3.16 EP · +12.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 96 yards from the CAR 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
49%
Yards
881
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0782%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4050%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3155%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3650%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4238%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2833%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.6320%
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Panthers3Falcons0
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 36
Panthers3Falcons3
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Panthers 22
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 37
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Panthers9Falcons3
Panthers10Falcons3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Falcons 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Panthers10Falcons9
Panthers10Falcons10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 9
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 36
Panthers10Falcons16
Panthers10Falcons17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Panthers 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Panthers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Panthers 10
Panthers10Falcons23
Panthers10Falcons24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Panthers 1
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 45
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Panthers 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 35
4th quarter53 plays
Panthers16Falcons24
Panthers17Falcons24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Falcons 3
Panthers17Falcons30
Panthers17Falcons31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 5
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 22
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Panthers 48
Panthers23Falcons31
Panthers24Falcons31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 4 to the Panthers 49
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Falcons 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
