2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Atlanta FalconsWinner

ATL -5.5 ✓O 44 ✓DomeFalcons closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Atlanta Falcons 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 4:08, ATL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:08CAR — ATL ATL ball · 3rd & 8ATL 55%

(4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:08ATL +9% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:22ATL +9% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left end to ATL 23 for 10 yards (27-D.Kazee). Penalty on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-11-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
Q2 · 7:13ATL +8% win prob(7:13) 26-T.Coleman right tackle to CAR 24 for 36 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), ball out of bounds at CAR 24.
Q2 · 0:28ATL +8% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Falcons
Offensive plays	65	60
Total yards	439	442 (edge)
Yards per play	6.8	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.13	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	51%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12	0.54 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	5/11	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

32/45, 335 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

2.6 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

23/28, 272 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.2 expected points added · +15.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

16 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

14/15 for 102 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Devin FunchessTE

7/9 for 77 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	8	39	3:24	Turnover on downs
2	ATL	ATL 17	11	57	5:55	Turnover on downs
3	CAR	CAR 25	5	-5	2:31	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 25	7	19	3:00	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 30	14	75	6:28	Touchdown
6	ATL	ATL 25	11	61	4:39	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 25	7	12	2:28	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 15	8	85	1:13	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 18	2	1	0:22	End of half
10	ATL	ATL 31	3	30	0:44	Interception
11	CAR	CAR 2	4	8	1:27	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 42	8	58	3:26	Touchdown
13	CAR	CAR 25	8	38	3:50	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 10	8	48	3:49	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 20	12	64	5:21	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 25	9	70	4:06	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 25	5	53	1:03	Interception
18	ATL	ATL 47	4	5	2:18	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 4	6	96	1:36	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 25	5	9	0:32	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 16	8	58	1:48	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	32/45	335	3	1	2	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cam Newton	5	42	8.4	4.1
Christian McCaffrey	8	37	4.6	-0.2
C.J. Anderson	3	31	10.3	1.4
D.J. Moore	1	7	7.0	0.4
Alex Armah	1	4	4.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	14	15	102	0	33%	3.4
Devin Funchess	7	9	77	0	20%	2.6
Jarius Wright	5	7	62	1	16%	5.3
D.J. Moore	1	2	51	1	4%	2.7
Torrey Smith	3	7	33	1	16%	-0.3
Ian Thomas	2	3	10	0	7%	0.1
C.J. Anderson	0	2	0	0	4%	-7.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Luke Kuechly	8	0	0	0
James Bradberry	5	2	0	0
Donte Jackson	7	0	1	1
Kawann Short	4	1	0	0
Mike Adams	4	0	0	0
Mario Addison	3	1	0	0
Rashaan Gaulden	2	1	0	0
Captain Munnerlyn	2	0	0	0
Da'Norris Searcy	2	0	0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	23/28	272	2	1	0	13.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	16	107	6.7	0	0.0
Ito Smith	9	46	5.1	0	-0.5
Matt Ryan	4	18	4.5	2	4.1
Calvin Ridley	1	3	3.0	0	0.0
Matt Schaub	1	0	0.0	0	-1.4
Mohamed Sanu	1	-4	-4.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	4	5	64	1	18%	7.4
Julio Jones	5	9	64	0	32%	-0.6
Austin Hooper	5	5	59	1	18%	5.1
Marvin Hall	1	1	30	0	4%	2.1
Mohamed Sanu	2	2	19	0	7%	-0.2
Tevin Coleman	4	4	18	0	14%	-1.7
Logan Paulsen	1	1	10	0	4%	0.5
Ito Smith	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	8	1	0.0	0	0
Duke Riley	6	3	0.0	0	0
Brian Poole	6	1	1.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	2	3	0.0	0	0
Ricardo Allen	5	0	0.0	1	2
Foyesade Oluokun	2	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Bethel	3	0	0.0	0	0
Desmond Trufant	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jordan Richards	2	1	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -5.5
Closing total: 44
CAR moneyline: +214
ATL moneyline: -240

Falcons closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 44; the game landed 55 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CAR 7 days · ATL 10 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.