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Cleveland Browns 18 at New Orleans Saints 21. Final.
Saints -10 no coverU 51 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
New Orleans Saints 21, Browns 18 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:10, 2nd and 4, on Marcus Williams — 36.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:10 · 2nd and 4
Marcus Williams
Saints
(5:10) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at CLE 40. 43-M.Williams to CLE 18 for 22 yards (5-T.Taylor). NO-21-P.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Dome
Saints closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:10, Saints +36.4% win probability on one snap.
36.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Antonio CallawayBrownsQ4 1:24(1:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 11-A.Callaway for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 47, YAC 0
34.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ4 1:162-Z.Gonzalez extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
18.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Browns157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(5:10) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at CLE 40. 43-M.Williams to CLE 18 for 22 yards (5-T.Taylor). NO-21-P.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionab
Swing +36.4 for SaintsExpected points +6.09 for SaintsThe model had Browns 6 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:10CLE +36% win prob(5:10) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at CLE 40. 43-M.Williams to CLE 18 for 22 yards (5-T.Taylor). NO-21-P.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 1:24NO +34% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 11-A.Callaway for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 47, YAC 0
4th · 1:16CLE +18% win prob2-Z.Gonzalez extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
4th · 0:08CLE +15% win prob(:08) 2-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
4th · 0:26NO +14% win prob(:26) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4th · 6:33CLE +13% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 30 for -9 yards (38-T.Carrie).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 44-yard field goal with 0:26 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:35Zane Gonzalez·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+33–0
1st2:52Wil Lutz·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd2:00Zane Gonzalez·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+36–3
3rd6:48Carlos Hyde·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+612–3
4th1:24Antonio Callaway·47-yd TD catch47-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyrod Taylorfrom Tyrod Taylor · kick no good, wide left+618–18
4th0:26Wil Lutz·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+318–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categorySaints
Browns4–3Saints
327Total yards278
5.5Yards per play4.6
38%Success rate43%
33%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays3
14First downs17
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Browns: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.16Saints: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Browns: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.13Saints: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Browns: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.21Saints: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Saints’s 61 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Saints 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Saints14.3%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NO's early-down pass rate, 60.4% against a season mean of 51.3% — and NO swings 11.9 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Taylor pass−35% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:10) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at CLE 40. 43-M.Williams to CLE 18 for 22 yards (5-T.Taylor). NO-21-P.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q4 5:10 · Browns · 2nd & 4 at CLE 30 · gained nothing · -6.09 EP · −34.5% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 79 yards from the CLE 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0661%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.3990%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2347%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.3218%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2733%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.70100%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 41
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 38
Browns3Saints0
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Saints 21
Browns3Saints3
Field goal14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Browns 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 32
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt2 plays
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 49
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Saints 37
No good9 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Browns 14
Browns6Saints3
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Saints 21
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 11
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Browns12Saints3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Saints 1
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Browns 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Saints 36
4th quarter57 plays
No good4 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 26
Browns12Saints9
Browns12Saints10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Browns 2
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 39
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 30
Browns12Saints16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Browns 5
Browns12Saints18
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Browns18Saints18
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Saints 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Browns18Saints21
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Browns 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
No good5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Saints 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Brownscategory by categorySaints
Browns3
Saints0
