2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Cleveland Browns

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -10 no coverU 51 ✓DomeSaints closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:10, CLE +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:10CLE — NO CLE ball · 2nd & 4CLE 63%

(5:10) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at CLE 40. 43-M.Williams to CLE 18 for 22 yards (5-T.Taylor). NO-21-P.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionab

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:10CLE +36% win prob(5:10) 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at CLE 40. 43-M.Williams to CLE 18 for 22 yards (5-T.Taylor). NO-21-P.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q4 · 1:24NO +34% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 11-A.Callaway for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 47, YAC 0
Q4 · 1:16CLE +18% win prob2-Z.Gonzalez extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q4 · 0:08CLE +15% win prob(:08) 2-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Saints
Offensive plays	60	61
Total yards	327 (edge)	278
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	38%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	4/12	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	14	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Tyrod TaylorQB

22/30, 246 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

28/35, 243 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.5 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

13 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Carlos HydeRB

16 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

12/13 for 89 yds, 2 TD

37% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Antonio CallawayWR

3/4 for 81 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 32	5	9	2:02	Punt
2	NO	NO 30	3	16	1:27	Fumble
3	CLE	NO 46	6	25	3:02	Turnover on downs
4	NO	NO 25	12	48	5:42	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 20	8	15	3:25	Punt
6	NO	NO 19	7	22	3:43	Fumble
7	CLE	NO 46	4	8	1:27	Turnover on downs
8	NO	NO 38	9	46	4:56	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	CLE 34	7	45	2:21	Turnover on downs
10	NO	NO 25	5	2	1:17	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 9	2	4	0:38	End of half
12	NO	NO 25	5	9	1:50	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 21	13	46	6:27	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 40	7	10	3:28	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 18	10	56	3:59	Turnover on downs
16	NO	NO 34	10	61	5:35	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 25	5	-3	1:21	Punt
18	NO	NO 35	4	-5	1:28	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 24	2	6	0:55	Interception
20	NO	CLE 18	5	20	2:17	Touchdown
21	CLE	CLE 25	8	75	1:24	Touchdown
22	NO	NO 25	7	49	0:55	Turnover on downs
23	CLE	CLE 25	4	41	0:18	Turnover on downs
24	NO	NO 42	1	0	0:03	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	22/30	246	1	1	3	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Carlos Hyde	16	43	2.7	1	-2.7
Tyrod Taylor	4	26	6.5	0	2.3
Nick Chubb	2	14	7.0	0	0.8
Antonio Callaway	2	7	3.5	0	-0.3
Duke Johnson	3	3	1.0	0	-5.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Callaway	3	4	81	1	13%	8.8
Jarvis Landry	5	7	69	0	23%	0.5
Rashard Higgins	5	7	47	0	23%	1.8
David Njoku	4	7	20	0	23%	-8.6
Darren Fells	2	2	15	0	7%	1.0
Carlos Hyde	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Duke Johnson	2	2	7	0	7%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Joe Schobert	3	5	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	6	2	1.0	0
Denzel Ward	5	2	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	4	2	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	3	2	0.0	0
Terrance Mitchell	5	0	0.0	0
Damarious Randall	4	1	0.0	2
Chris Smith	2	2	0.0	0
James Burgess	2	1	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	3	0	2.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	28/35	243	2	0	3	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	13	46	3.5	0.7
Mike Gillislee	8	18	2.3	-4.7
Drew Brees	1	-1	-1.0	0.0
Jonathan Williams	1	-1	-1.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	12	13	89	2	37%	1.1
Ted Ginn	4	7	55	0	20%	-3.1
Alvin Kamara	6	6	53	0	17%	4.3
Benjamin Watson	3	5	19	0	14%	-0.7
Tre'Quan Smith	1	1	18	0	3%	1.0
Josh Hill	1	1	5	0	3%	0.2
Zach Line	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Austin Carr	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
A.J. Klein	6	3	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	3	6	0.0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	4	1.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	3	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Robinson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kurt Coleman	4	0	0.0	0	0
Ken Crawley	3	1	0.0	0	1
Marshon Lattimore	3	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	4	0	0.0	1	1
Manti Te'o	1	3	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -10
Closing total: 51
CLE moneyline: +351
NO moneyline: -407

Saints closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51; the game landed 39 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CLE 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Hue Jackson vs Sean Payton