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Detroit Lions 27 at San Francisco 49ers 30. Final.
49ers -6 no coverO 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
San Francisco 49ers 30, Lions 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:33, 3rd and 15, on Michael Roberts — 12.7 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:33 · 3rd and 15
Michael Roberts
Lions
(3:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-M.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:33, Lions +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kenny GolladayLionsQ1 2:52(2:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
9.8pts
T.Walker49ersQ4 2:24(2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-M.Breida INTERCEPTED by 47-T.Walker at SF 44. 47-T.Walker to SF 7 for 37 yards (10-J.Garoppolo). PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 43 - No Play.
11.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against 49ers at 3 of 11 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 1 giveaway.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.01 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Lions178 of 190 plays carry both curves
(3:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-M.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.7 for 49ersExpected points −3.99 for 49ersThe model had Lions 3 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:33SF +13% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-M.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:24SF +11% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-M.Breida INTERCEPTED by 47-T.Walker at SF 44. 47-T.Walker to SF 7 for 37 yards (10-J.Garoppolo). PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 43 - No Play.
1st · 2:52SF +10% win prob(2:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
2nd · 6:39DET +9% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 18 for -8 yards (47-E.Lee). FUMBLES (47-E.Lee), RECOVERED by SF-54-C.Marsh at DET 16. 54-C.Marsh to DET 16 for no gain (71-R.Wagner). Total Sack loss 10 yards
3rd · 1:06SF +9% win prob(1:06) 22-M.Breida right tackle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00SF +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kendrick Bourne's 4-yard touchdown catch with 12:10 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:22Robbie Gould·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+30–3
1st2:52Kenny Golladay·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–3
2nd12:10Kendrick Bourne·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+77–10
2nd5:00Robbie Gould·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+37–13
2nd0:06Matt Prater·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+310–13
3rd13:22Garrett Celek·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+710–20
3rd8:50Matt Prater·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+313–20
4th11:25Robbie Gould·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+313–30
4th8:40Marvin Jones·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+720–30
4th3:33Michael Roberts·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+727–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by category49ers
Lions5–349ers
427Total yards347
5.8Yards per play5.9
42%Success rate47%
44%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
22First downs19
2Sacks taken6
1Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.1549ers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Lions: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Lions: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 73 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against 49ers’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, 49ers 6.
NoteLions outgained 49ers 427-347 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.7% in week 1 against 24.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
DET's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 1 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers8.9%
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.2%, 10.6 points above their season mean of 13.7% and 1.8 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Pinion punts−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DET 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 16 for no gain.
Q4 1:16 · 49ers · 4th & 18 at SF 40 · gained nothing · -0.13 EP · −15.5% win probability
176 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 97 yards from the SF 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
44%
Yards
773
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0873%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31+0.4748%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14-0.5779%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR14+0.06100%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0156%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0857%
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0017%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 24 to the 49ers 48
Lions049ers3
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the Lions 10
Lions649ers3
Lions749ers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 31 to the 49ers 30
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the Lions 44
2nd quarter50 plays
Lions749ers9
Lions749ers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Lions 4
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 39
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 26
Lions749ers13
Field goal4 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 14
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 46
Punt4 plays
Lions1049ers13
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 34 to the 49ers 9
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Lions1049ers19
Lions1049ers20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 11
Lions1349ers20
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 48 to the 49ers 18
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Lions 45
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 14 to the 49ers 47
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Lions1349ers26
Lions1349ers27
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 3 to the 49ers 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 23
4th quarter59 plays
Punt2 plays
Lions1349ers30
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Lions 15
Lions1949ers30
Lions2049ers30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 20 to the 49ers 5
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Lions2649ers30
Lions2749ers30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 21 to the 49ers 7
Punt13 plays, from the 49ers 22 to midfield
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
