2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

Detroit Lions

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -6 no coverO 48.5 ✓49ers closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

San Francisco 49ers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:33, SF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:33DET — SF DET ball · 3rd & 15SF 93%

(3:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-M.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:33SF +13% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-M.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:24SF +11% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-M.Breida INTERCEPTED by 47-T.Walker at SF 44. 47-T.Walker to SF 7 for 37 yards (10-J.Garoppolo). PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 43 - No Play.
Q1 · 2:52SF +10% win prob(2:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q2 · 6:39DET +9% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 18 for -8 yards (47-E.Lee). FUMBLES (47-E.Lee), RECOVERED by SF-54-C.Marsh at DET 16. 54-C.Marsh to DET 16 for no gain (71-R.Wagner). Total Sack loss 10 yards

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	49ers
Offensive plays	73	59
Total yards	427 (edge)	347
Yards per play	5.8	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	42%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Lions outgained 49ers 427–347 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

34/53, 347 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

18/26, 206 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.4 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

11 att, 138 yds, 1 TD

7.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Alfred MorrisRB

14 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Golden TateWR

7/13 for 109 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

6/9 for 89 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 24	8	23	4:08	Punt
2	SF	SF 10	8	53	4:34	Turnover on downs
3	DET	DET 31	9	69	3:33	Touchdown
4	SF	SF 12	15	83	5:38	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 25	5	7	1:39	Punt
6	SF	SF 15	5	22	2:22	Punt
7	DET	DET 19	3	-3	1:36	Fumble
8	SF	DET 16	4	-8	1:35	Turnover on downs
9	DET	DET 25	7	20	3:02	Punt
10	SF	SF 13	4	-9	1:04	Punt
11	DET	DET 34	9	42	0:46	Turnover on downs
12	SF	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
13	SF	DET 26	6	26	1:43	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 48	9	47	4:31	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 22	9	33	2:59	Punt
16	DET	DET 14	8	39	3:42	Punt
17	SF	SF 3	4	97	1:13	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 21	5	2	1:09	Punt
19	SF	SF 47	7	38	3:22	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 20	7	90	2:45	Touchdown
21	SF	SF 25	5	-1	2:28	Defensive touchdown
22	DET	DET 21	13	68	2:41	Touchdown
23	SF	SF 22	8	13	2:19	Punt
24	DET	DET 16	7	23	0:54	Turnover on downs
25	SF	DET 39	1	0	0:14	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 97 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	34/53	347	3	0	2	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	8	43	5.4	-0.3
LeGarrette Blount	8	38	4.8	-0.6
Golden Tate	1	9	9.0	0.8
Matthew Stafford	1	8	8.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Golden Tate	7	13	109	0	25%	1.4
Kenny Golladay	6	9	89	1	17%	6.9
Marvin Jones	4	9	54	1	17%	3.2
Theo Riddick	9	12	47	0	23%	0.7
Kerryon Johnson	5	6	23	0	12%	-0.9
Michael Roberts	1	1	15	1	2%	4.0
Luke Willson	1	1	13	0	2%	0.8
LeGarrette Blount	1	1	-3	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tavon Wilson	5	1	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	4	1	0.0	2
Darius Slay	5	0	0.0	0
Christian Jones	3	1	1.0	0
Devon Kennard	3	1	2.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	2	0.0	0
Jarrad Davis	3	1	2.0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	3	1	0.0	0
Glover Quin	4	0	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	3	0	0.0	1

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	18/26	206	2	0	6	4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Matt Breida	11	138	12.5	1	7.6
Alfred Morris	14	48	3.4	0	-3.4
Jimmy Garoppolo	3	4	1.3	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pierre Garcon	4	4	57	0	16%	3.9
Dante Pettis	1	2	35	0	8%	1.4
Alfred Morris	2	2	32	0	8%	2.0
George Kittle	2	4	22	0	16%	0.6
Garrett Celek	2	2	22	1	8%	2.3
Matt Breida	3	4	21	0	16%	1.7
Kyle Juszczyk	3	4	13	0	16%	-0.0
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	4	1	4%	1.5
Trent Taylor	0	2	0	0	8%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Elijah Lee	8	2	1.0
Fred Warner	7	2	0.0
Jaquiski Tartt	2	2	0.0
DeForest Buckner	4	0	1.0
Ahkello Witherspoon	3	1	0.0
K'Waun Williams	3	1	0.0
Richard Sherman	2	1	0.0
Raheem Mostert	3	0	0.0
Mark Nzeocha	1	1	0.0
Arik Armstead	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -6
Closing total: 48.5
DET moneyline: +210
SF moneyline: -235

49ers closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 57 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DET 6 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Kyle Shanahan