For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Texans159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(2:29) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 84-C.Davis to HOU 22 for 18 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), ball out of bounds at HOU 18.
Swing +20.6 for TitansExpected points +1.65 for TitansThe model had Titans 8 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:29TEN +21% win prob(2:29) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 84-C.Davis to HOU 22 for 18 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), ball out of bounds at HOU 18.
1st · 10:00TEN +19% win prob(10:00) (Punt formation) 31-K.Byard pass deep right to 29-D.Cruikshank for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:32TEN +17% win prob(13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:17HOU +15% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins to TEN 21 for 31 yards (21-M.Butler).
4th · 11:38TEN +10% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe to HOU 28 for 14 yards (24-J.Joseph).
1st · 5:16HOU +9% win prob(5:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 31-yard field goal with 1:05 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:00Dane Cruikshank·66-yd TD catch66-yard touchdown catchfrom Kevin Byardfrom Kevin Byard+70–7
4th9:48Ryan Succop·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+317–17
4th1:05Ryan Succop·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.BrinkleyLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Texans6–3Titans
437Total yards283
7.2Yards per play5.0
41%Success rate37%
45%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays2
19First downs14
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Texans ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Texans: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.03Titans: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Texans: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.33Titans: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Texans: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.17Titans: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 61 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Titans’s 57 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Titans 3.
NoteTexans outgained Titans 437-283 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's sack or hit rate, 28.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 1.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 30.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 9.5 points clear of the next team along.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TEN's pass rate over expected, −16.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Titans28.2%
off script — got home · +14.8 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.2%, 14.8 points above their season mean of 13.4% and 2.1 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:32 · Texans · 2nd & 7 at TEN 39 · gained 39 · +4.54 EP · +20.1% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 79 yards from the TEN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
36%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3561%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28-0.0221%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.0868%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1748%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.5617%
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 37
Offense on the fieldTwo tight ends, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and four backsDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and four backsRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Texans0Titans6
Texans0Titans7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 34
No good11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 34
Texans0Titans13
Texans0Titans14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Texans 18
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
2nd quarter44 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Titans 37
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 39
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Texans 21
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 32
Texans6Titans14
Texans7Titans14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Titans 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 4 to the Titans 33
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 5 to the Titans 10
Texans10Titans14
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Titans 9
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Texans16Titans14
Texans17Titans14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Titans 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Texans17Titans17
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 24
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 37
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Texans17Titans20
Field goal17 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw13.3 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -3.5
Closing total
41
Texans moneyline
-176
Titans moneyline
+159
Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 37 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 84°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the north-east; partly cloudy.
Referee
Peter Morelli
Rest
Texans 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Mike Vrabel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 6:50
HOU +9% win prob
(6:50) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 20.
3rd · 3:26HOU +9% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at TEN 16 for -7 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey), and recovers at TEN 16.
