2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

Houston Texans

Tennessee TitansWinner

HOU -3.5 upsetU 41 ✓Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:29, TEN +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:29HOU — TEN TEN ball · 2nd & 12TEN 56%

(2:29) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 84-C.Davis to HOU 22 for 18 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), ball out of bounds at HOU 18.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:29TEN +21% win prob(2:29) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 84-C.Davis to HOU 22 for 18 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), ball out of bounds at HOU 18.
Q1 · 10:00TEN +19% win prob(10:00) (Punt formation) 31-K.Byard pass deep right to 29-D.Cruikshank for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 13:32TEN +17% win prob(13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:17HOU +15% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins to TEN 21 for 31 yards (21-M.Butler).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Titans
Offensive plays	61	57
Total yards	437 (edge)	283
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	0.03
Success rate	41% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	64%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Texans outgained Titans 437–283 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

22/32, 310 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.4 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Blaine GabbertQB

13/20, 117 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

14 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

18 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

8/9 for 113 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

6/11 for 110 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	7	13	2:55	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 16	6	79	2:14	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 25	9	38	4:41	Turnover on downs
4	TEN	TEN 44	10	56	4:35	Touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 25	8	53	3:21	Interception
6	TEN	TEN 20	7	19	3:20	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 12	4	9	1:18	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 22	8	14	4:08	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 47	7	68	2:30	Touchdown
10	TEN	TEN 25	4	9	0:58	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 25	5	6	1:35	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 4	11	58	5:08	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 5	4	5	1:38	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 48	9	36	4:00	Turnover on downs
15	TEN	TEN 25	5	-3	2:31	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 30	6	70	1:43	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	9	36	3:42	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 25	8	38	3:02	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 25	12	62	5:41	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 25	6	54	1:00	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 79 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	22/32	310	2	1	4	6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Miller	14	68	4.9	-0.7
Deshaun Watson	5	44	8.8	0.9
Alfred Blue	7	36	5.1	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	8	9	113	1	29%	11.4
DeAndre Hopkins	6	11	110	1	35%	-0.1
Bruce Ellington	3	3	45	0	10%	2.3
Jordan Akins	2	2	21	0	6%	0.8
Ryan Griffin	1	1	19	0	3%	1.8
Lamar Miller	2	2	2	0	6%	-1.2
Jordan Thomas	0	3	0	0	10%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	5	2	0.0	0
Benardrick McKinney	1	5	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	3	0.0	2
J.J. Watt	4	2	0.0	0
Brandon Dunn	3	2	0.0	0
Justin Reid	4	1	0.0	0
Aaron Colvin	2	1	0.0	0
D.J. Reader	1	2	0.0	0
Duke Ejiofor	2	1	1.0	0
Whitney Mercilus	2	1	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Blaine Gabbert	13/20	117	1	1	-0.5
Kevin Byard	1/1	66	1	0	7.6
Derrick Henry	1/1	8	0	0	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	18	56	3.1	-2.8
Dion Lewis	14	42	3.0	-4.8
Blaine Gabbert	2	2	1.0	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dane Cruikshank	1	1	66	1	5%	7.6
Corey Davis	5	7	55	0	33%	3.1
Taywan Taylor	3	4	32	1	19%	1.6
Luke Stocker	2	2	15	0	10%	1.0
Tajae Sharpe	1	2	14	0	10%	0.3
Rishard Matthews	2	4	8	0	19%	-3.1
Dion Lewis	1	1	1	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kevin Byard	6	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	6	0	0.0	0	2
Wesley Woodyard	3	3	0.0	0	0
Kamalei Correa	3	2	1.0	0	0
Jurrell Casey	4	1	2.0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	4	1	0.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	4	0	1.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	4	0	0.0	1	2
Derrick Morgan	1	2	0.0	0	0
Dane Cruikshank	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3.5
Closing total: 41
HOU moneyline: -176
TEN moneyline: +159

Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 37 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: HOU 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.