2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · FedExField

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -6 upsetU 48 ✓Commanders closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 21–9. Biggest swing: Q2 13:17, IND +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:17IND — WAS IND ball · 3rd & 4IND 57%

(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger (54-M.Foster) at WAS 38. 36-D.Swearinger to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-J.Doyle).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:17IND +12% win prob(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger (54-M.Foster) at WAS 38. 36-D.Swearinger to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-J.Doyle).
Q2 · 0:05IND +10% win prob(:05) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 · 15:00IND +10% win prob(15:00) 11-A.Smith sacked at IND 29 for -10 yards (53-D.Leonard).
Q3 · 9:26IND +9% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger [93-J.Allen] at IND 36. 36-D.Swearinger to IND 29 for 7 yards (13-T.Hilton).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Commanders
Offensive plays	58	69
Total yards	283	334 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	45%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	15	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

33/46, 292 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.4 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

21/31, 179 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

0.7 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jordan WilkinsRB

10 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

10 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Chris ThompsonRB

13/14 for 92 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

7/11 for 83 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	13	75	5:35	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 25	6	31	2:48	Punt
3	IND	IND 10	4	4	1:39	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 38	7	3	4:01	Punt
5	IND	IND 5	7	45	2:48	Interception
6	WAS	WAS 42	5	22	1:57	Turnover on downs
7	IND	IND 25	10	38	4:21	Touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 25	5	4	1:25	Punt
9	IND	IND 28	4	8	1:27	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 25	2	8	2:07	Turnover on downs
11	WAS	IND 40	3	-1	0:57	Fumble
12	WAS	WAS 15	5	6	0:54	Punt
13	WAS	IND 39	6	54	0:01	Turnover on downs
14	WAS	WAS 9	2	-3	4:22	End of half
15	WAS	IND 22	9	44	1:21	Punt
16	WAS	IND 29	4	-1	3:37	Interception
17	WAS	IND 24	6	21	1:05	Turnover on downs
18	IND	WAS 27	5	5	6:07	Punt
19	WAS	IND 25	12	44	5:56	Turnover on downs
20	IND	WAS 25	14	73	2:33	Touchdown
21	WAS	IND 19	9	54	1:12	Fumble
22	WAS	WAS 20	9	34	3:29	Punt
23	WAS	IND 34	8	49	0:18	End of game
24	IND	IND 34	1	0	0:18	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	21/31	179	2	2	1	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Wilkins	10	61	6.1	0	1.9
Marlon Mack	10	34	3.4	0	-1.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	7	1.8	1	0.0
Andrew Luck	4	2	0.5	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	7	11	83	1	35%	-0.6
Ryan Grant	2	2	30	0	6%	2.1
Eric Ebron	3	4	26	1	13%	3.5
Jack Doyle	2	5	20	0	16%	-0.8
Chester Rogers	3	3	17	0	10%	0.1
Jordan Wilkins	2	2	3	0	6%	-0.7
Marlon Mack	1	2	2	0	6%	-1.0
Ryan Hewitt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	1	-2	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	11	4	1.0	1
Clayton Geathers	4	8	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	2	5	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	4	2	0.0	0
Nate Hairston	2	2	0.0	0
Jabaal Sheard	2	2	1.0	1
Pierre Desir	2	2	0.0	3
Al-Quadin Muhammad	1	2	0.0	0
Kemoko Turay	2	1	0.0	0
Quincy Wilson	1	1	0.0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	33/46	292	0	0	3	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamison Crowder	2	29	14.5	1.5
Adrian Peterson	11	20	1.8	-5.4
Alex Smith	4	14	3.5	1.9
Chris Thompson	4	1	0.3	-3.0
Rob Kelley	1	1	1.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Thompson	13	14	92	32%	0.1
Paul Richardson	4	6	63	14%	1.0
Jordan Reed	6	8	55	18%	-1.8
Josh Doctson	4	7	37	16%	0.9
Adrian Peterson	3	3	30	7%	1.2
Jamison Crowder	2	4	8	9%	-1.7
Vernon Davis	1	1	7	2%	0.6
Jehu Chesson	0	1	0	2%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Mason Foster	6	4	0	1
Zach Brown	2	6	0	0
Josh Norman	3	4	0	0
Montae Nicholson	4	3	0	1
Quinton Dunbar	4	0	0	1
Jonathan Allen	3	1	0	0
D.J. Swearinger	3	0	2	2
Preston Smith	1	2	0	0
Fabian Moreau	1	1	0	0
Daron Payne	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -6
Closing total: 48
IND moneyline: +213
WAS moneyline: -239

Commanders closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 30 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: IND 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Jay Gruden