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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:34 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 21 at Washington Commanders 9. Final.
Commanders -6 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
Indianapolis Colts 21, Commanders 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:17, 3rd and 4, on D.J. Swearinger — 12.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:17 · 3rd and 4
D.J. Swearinger
Commanders
(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger (54-M.Foster) at WAS 38. 36-D.Swearinger to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-J.Doyle).
U 48 ✓
Commanders closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 21–9. Biggest swing: Q2 13:17, Commanders +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dustin HopkinsColtsQ2 0:05(:05) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
9.8pts
Alex SmithColtsQ4 15:00(15:00) 11-A.Smith sacked at IND 29 for -10 yards (53-D.Leonard).
9.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Colts won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Commanders at 5 of 15 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.14 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Colts167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger (54-M.Foster) at WAS 38. 36-D.Swearinger to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-J.Doyle).
Swing +12.4 for CommandersExpected points +4.61 for CommandersThe model had Colts 14 points higher than the market did.play 41
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:17IND +12% win prob(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger (54-M.Foster) at WAS 38. 36-D.Swearinger to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-J.Doyle).
2nd · 0:05IND +10% win prob(:05) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
4th · 15:00IND +10% win prob(15:00) 11-A.Smith sacked at IND 29 for -10 yards (53-D.Leonard).
3rd · 9:26IND +9% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger [93-J.Allen] at IND 36. 36-D.Swearinger to IND 29 for 7 yards (13-T.Hilton).
4th · 5:08IND +8% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 86-J.Reed to IND 21 for 8 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-35-P.Desir at IND 19. 35-P.Desir to IND 19 for no gain (25-C.Thompson).
3rd · 5:43IND +7% win prob(5:43) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eric Ebron's 7-yard touchdown catch with 9:30 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:30Eric Ebron·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew LuckLead never changed again+77–0
2nd11:16Dustin Hopkins·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+37–3
3rd5:43Dustin Hopkins·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+314–6
4th13:33Dustin Hopkins·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+314–9
4th7:37T.Y. Hilton·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+721–9
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryCommanders
Colts4–3Commanders
283Total yards334
4.9Yards per play4.8
45%Success rate48%
56%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
15First downs20
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Colts: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Colts: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Colts: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.31Commanders: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 58 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Commanders’s 69 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Commanders 2.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Commanders21.2%
leaned — got home · +6.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.2%, 6.0 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 1.1 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Luck pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger (54-M.Foster) at WAS 38. 36-D.Swearinger to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-J.Doyle).
Q2 13:17 · Colts · 3rd & 4 at WAS 37 · gained nothing · -4.61 EP · −12.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64-0.1770%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.0461%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1052%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1440%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Colts6Commanders0
Colts7Commanders0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Commanders 7
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Colts 44
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 14
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Colts 43
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Commanders 37
Colts7Commanders3
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Colts 31
Colts13Commanders3
Colts14Commanders3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Commanders 8
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 36
Fumble lost1 play
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Colts 46
No good7 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Colts 31
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Commanders 47
Colts14Commanders6
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 9
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 29
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Colts 20
4th quarter51 plays
Colts14Commanders9
Field goal3 plays
Drive ended12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Commanders 8
Colts20Commanders9
Colts21Commanders9
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Colts 29
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 41
Drive ended2 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 26
Drive ended4 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 46
The period ended1 play
Turnover on downs1 play
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Coltscategory by categoryCommanders
Colts6
Commanders0
