2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Heinz Field

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -4.5 upsetO 52 ✓Steelers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 42–37. Biggest swing: Q3 12:47, PIT +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:47KC — PIT KC ball · 2nd & 9PIT 50%

(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:47PIT +12% win prob(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:24PIT +11% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 13-J.Washington for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-S.Nelson was injured during the play.
Q4 · 13:47PIT +9% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward]. Penalty on PIT-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q3 · 3:19PIT +8% win prob(3:19) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Robinson. Kansas City challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Steelers
Offensive plays	52	75
Total yards	451	477 (edge)
Yards per play	8.7 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.51 (edge)	0.22
Success rate	56% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	60%	85%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.83 (edge)	0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	2/5 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	21	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.51 expected points added per play vs 0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

39/60, 452 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.1 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/28, 326 yds, 6 TD, 0 INT

28.6 expected points added · +22.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

18 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

5 att, 18 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Jesse JamesTE

5/5 for 138 yds, 1 TD

8% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

13/19 for 121 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 21	5	-2	0:52	Punt
2	KC	PIT 10	3	20	1:03	Touchdown
3	PIT	PIT 25	5	-3	1:25	Punt
4	KC	KC 29	6	71	2:32	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 11	10	63	4:04	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 39	7	61	2:40	Touchdown
7	PIT	PIT 19	8	76	3:04	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	5	10	2:12	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 15	12	83	5:41	Touchdown
10	KC	KC 25	7	21	3:21	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 10	11	77	2:48	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:18	End of half
13	KC	KC 25	7	75	2:18	Touchdown
14	PIT	PIT 25	13	71	5:30	Touchdown
15	KC	KC 25	9	70	3:57	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 25	5	7	1:29	Punt
17	KC	KC 35	6	65	3:04	Touchdown
18	PIT	PIT 25	6	15	1:28	Punt
19	KC	KC 1	2	-1	0:12	Turnover on downs
20	PIT	PIT 30	8	24	2:46	Punt
21	KC	KC 20	7	41	4:13	Fumble
22	PIT	PIT 34	10	66	3:04	Touchdown
23	KC	KC 25	7	18	1:59	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/28	326	6	0	1	28.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	18	75	4.2	-0.8
Sammy Watkins	1	31	31.0	2.3
Patrick Mahomes	5	18	3.6	0.5
Spencer Ware	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	7	10	109	2	36%	9.0
Sammy Watkins	6	7	100	0	25%	7.3
Tyreek Hill	5	6	90	1	21%	7.9
Chris Conley	2	2	17	1	7%	-1.8
Kareem Hunt	1	1	5	1	4%	2.7
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	3	1	4%	1.1
Damien Williams	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Anthony Hitchens	7	5	0
Eric Murray	5	1	0
Kendall Fuller	5	1	2
Reggie Ragland	4	1	0
Terrance Smith	4	0	0
Justin Houston	2	2	0
Steven Nelson	3	0	0
Ron Parker	3	0	0
Xavier Williams	2	0	0
Tremon Smith	2	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	39/60	452	3	0	1	15.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	8	17	2.1	1	-2.0
Ben Roethlisberger	2	9	4.5	1	4.1
Ryan Switzer	2	5	2.5	0	-0.7
Stevan Ridley	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jesse James	5	5	138	1	8%	10.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster	13	19	121	1	32%	4.9
Antonio Brown	9	17	67	0	28%	-1.5
James Conner	5	5	48	0	8%	3.0
Vance McDonald	3	5	26	0	8%	-0.7
Roosevelt Nix	1	1	19	0	2%	1.6
Ryan Switzer	1	2	14	0	3%	-0.3
James Washington	1	5	14	1	8%	-0.2
Stevan Ridley	1	1	5	0	2%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Morgan Burnett	3	3	0
Jon Bostic	4	2	0
Stephon Tuitt	2	3	1
Terrell Edmunds	4	0	0
Mike Hilton	1	2	0
Artie Burns	2	1	0
Cameron Heyward	3	0	0
Coty Sensabaugh	2	1	0
Sean Davis	1	1	0
T.J. Watt	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -4.5
Closing total: 52
KC moneyline: +179
PIT moneyline: -199

Steelers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 79 — over by 27.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: KC 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Mike Tomlin