For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 42 at Pittsburgh Steelers 37. Final.
Steelers -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs 42, Steelers 37 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 12:47, 2nd and 9, on Travis Kelce — 11.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:47 · 2nd and 9
Travis Kelce
Chiefs
(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 52 ✓
Steelers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Kansas City Chiefs 42–37. Biggest swing: Q3 12:47, Chiefs +11.8% win probability on one snap.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James WashingtonSteelersQ2 0:24(:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 13-J.Washington for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-S.Nelson was injured during the play.
11.4pts
Tyreek HillChiefsQ4 13:47(13:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward]. Penalty on PIT-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Holding, declined.
9.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.83 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at +0.30 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.51 expected points per snap, against Steelers at +0.22 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Chiefs182 of 193 plays carry both curves
(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.8 for SteelersExpected points −3.39 for SteelersThe model had Chiefs 7 points higher than the market did.play 105
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:47PIT +12% win prob(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:24PIT +11% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 13-J.Washington for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-S.Nelson was injured during the play.
4th · 13:47PIT +9% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward]. Penalty on PIT-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 3:19PIT +8% win prob(3:19) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Robinson. Kansas City challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:10PIT +8% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-C.Conley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 15:00PIT +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill to PIT 39 for 36 yards (25-A.Burns).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Demarcus Robinson's 3-yard touchdown catch with 3:19 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:10Chris Conley·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–0
1st9:13Travis Kelce·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–0
1st2:29Kareem Hunt·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+721–0
2nd14:30Jesse James·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+721–7
2nd6:31JuJu Smith-Schuster·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · kick no good, wide right+621–13
2nd0:24James Washington·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point good+821–21
3rd12:47Travis Kelce·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+728–21
Chiefs ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.83 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.51Chiefs: +0.51 expected points added per play
+0.22Steelers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.83Chiefs: +0.83 expected points added per play
+0.30Steelers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Chiefs: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.28Steelers: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 52 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Steelers’s 75 at 85%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Steelers 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.51 expected points added per play vs 0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 81.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 1.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +2.8 pts in week 1 against +15.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
PIT's pass rate over expected turned over: −1.9 pts in week 1 against +17.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 64 dropbacks
Steelers16.1%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.2 pts, 7.2 points above their season mean of 8.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 8 never used
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%58 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%58 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 13-J.Washington for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-S.Nelson was injured during the play.
Q2 0:24 · Steelers · 3rd & 10 at KC 14 · gained 14 · +3.57 EP · +17.4% win probability
180 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 90 yards from the PIT 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
48%
Yards
926
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.2887%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.6172%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.1225%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.4214%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7+0.1586%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays
Chiefs6Steelers0
Chiefs7Steelers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 5
Punt5 plays
Chiefs13Steelers0
Chiefs14Steelers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Steelers 19
No good12 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Chiefs 31
Chiefs20Steelers0
Chiefs21Steelers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Steelers 5
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Chiefs21Steelers6
Chiefs21Steelers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 26
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 30
Chiefs21Steelers13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Chiefs 2
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 47
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Chiefs21Steelers19
Chiefs21Steelers21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Chiefs 14
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs27Steelers21
Chiefs28Steelers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Steelers 25
Chiefs28Steelers27
Chiefs28Steelers28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs34Steelers28
Chiefs35Steelers28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Steelers 3
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Steelers 34
4th quarter54 plays
Chiefs41Steelers28
Chiefs42Steelers28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 40
Chiefs42Steelers30
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 44
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Steelers 36
Chiefs42Steelers36
Chiefs42Steelers37
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Steelers 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -4.5
Closing total
52
Chiefs moneyline
+179
Steelers moneyline
-199
Steelers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52; the game landed 79 — over by 27.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 78°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Mike Tomlin
1st · 10:23PIT +7% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at PIT 20 for 40 yards (21-S.Davis).
3rd · 8:52PIT +7% win prob(8:52) 76-C.Okorafor reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 45-R.Nix to KC 5 for 19 yards (48-Te.Smith, 59-R.Ragland).
