2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · New Era Field

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Buffalo Bills

LAC -7.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓Chargers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Los Angeles Chargers 31–20. Biggest swing: Q2 0:29, LAC +99% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:29LAC — BUF LAC ball · 2nd & 5LAC 100%

(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 40 for 10 yards (57-L.Alexander, 49-T.Edmunds).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:29LAC +99% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 40 for 10 yards (57-L.Alexander, 49-T.Edmunds).
Q1 · 10:53BUF +6% win prob(10:53) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to BUF 13 for 25 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught at BUF 33, crossing from left.
Q1 · 11:32LAC +3% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 14 for -3 yards (42-U.Nwosu).
Q1 · 7:13BUF +3% win prob(7:13) 30-A.Ekeler right end to BUF 35 for 16 yards (50-R.Humber, 21-J.Poyer). End-around.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Bills
Offensive plays	54	59
Total yards	350 (edge)	263
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	48% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	56%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.60 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	3/9	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

23/27, 256 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.6 expected points added · +16.4% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

18/33, 245 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

11 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

LeSean McCoyRB

9 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

6/8 for 67 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Zay JonesWR

2/3 for 63 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	2:13	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 14	4	0	1:54	Punt
3	LAC	BUF 38	4	38	1:27	Touchdown
4	BUF	BUF 25	5	0	1:44	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 39	7	61	3:24	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	13	46	5:40	Turnover on downs
7	LAC	LAC 25	7	75	2:55	Touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 25	5	7	2:02	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 19	13	86	6:46	Touchdown
10	BUF	BUF 25	7	57	1:08	Turnover on downs
11	LAC	LAC 25	3	15	0:47	End of half
12	BUF	BUF 25	9	75	3:54	Touchdown
13	LAC	LAC 25	5	4	2:12	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 35	7	20	3:21	Punt
15	LAC	LAC 12	4	-6	1:40	Punt
16	BUF	LAC 42	3	1	1:08	Interception
17	LAC	LAC 25	4	6	2:22	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 34	7	12	2:44	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 20	9	47	5:28	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 3	1	0	0:11	Interception
21	LAC	BUF 16	7	15	3:10	Turnover on downs
22	BUF	BUF 25	13	45	3:12	Touchdown
23	LAC	BUF 23	2	0	0:38	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	23/27	256	3	0	2	17.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	11	77	7.0	0	2.1
Melvin Gordon	9	28	3.1	1	-2.0
Philip Rivers	3	5	1.7	0	-2.3
J.J. Jones	1	0	0.0	0	-0.8
Detrez Newsome	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4
Geno Smith	1	-1	-1.0	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	6	8	67	0	30%	5.2
Virgil Green	3	3	55	0	11%	3.9
Tyrell Williams	3	3	48	0	11%	3.5
Melvin Gordon	6	7	38	2	26%	4.1
Mike Williams	2	2	27	1	7%	5.3
Austin Ekeler	3	3	21	0	11%	0.2
Antonio Gates	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Derwin James	6	1	1.0	0	1
Jahleel Addae	6	1	0.0	0	1
Adrian Phillips	3	2	0.0	1	1
Denzel Perryman	4	0	0.0	0	0
Melvin Ingram	3	1	1.5	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	3	1	1.0	0	0
Isaac Rochell	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	3	0	0.0	1	2
Jatavis Brown	2	0	1.0	0	1
Desmond King	2	0	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	18/33	245	1	2	5	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
LeSean McCoy	9	39	4.3	0	-1.8
Josh Allen	8	32	4.0	0	0.5
Chris Ivory	2	7	3.5	1	0.9
Marcus Murphy	3	6	2.0	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Jones	2	3	63	0	9%	3.6
Chris Ivory	1	2	30	0	6%	-0.8
Robert Foster	2	3	30	0	9%	2.4
LeSean McCoy	4	4	29	0	12%	0.8
Charles Clay	2	3	29	0	9%	1.2
Patrick DiMarco	1	1	24	0	3%	1.7
Kelvin Benjamin	2	3	19	1	9%	1.9
Marcus Murphy	1	5	7	0	15%	-2.2
Logan Thomas	1	1	7	0	3%	1.0
Jason Croom	2	4	7	0	12%	-3.9
Andre Holmes	0	4	0	0	12%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Poyer	6	1	0.0	0
Rafael Bush	3	3	0.0	0
Lorenzo Alexander	3	2	1.0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	4	1	0.0	0
Jerry Hughes	4	1	1.0	0
Eddie Yarbrough	2	1	0.0	0
Matt Milano	1	2	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	1	2	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	2	1	0.0	0
Trent Murphy	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -7.5
Closing total: 41.5
LAC moneyline: -296
BUF moneyline: +261

Chargers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 51 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: LAC 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Sean McDermott