For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Los Angeles Chargers 31 at Buffalo Bills 20. Final.
Chargers -7.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
Los Angeles Chargers 31, Bills 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:29, 2nd and 5, on Austin Ekeler — 98.8 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:29 · 2nd and 5
Austin Ekeler
Bills
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 40 for 10 yards (57-L.Alexander, 49-T.Edmunds).
Chargers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Los Angeles Chargers 31–20. Biggest swing: Q2 0:29, Bills +98.8% win probability on one snap.
98.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh AllenChargersQ1 11:32(11:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 14 for -3 yards (42-U.Nwosu).
2.7pts
Virgil GreenChargersQ1 10:53(10:53) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to BUF 13 for 25 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught at BUF 33, crossing from left.
6.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.60 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Bills at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.08 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Bills at 5 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Chargers155 of 162 plays carry both curves
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 40 for 10 yards (57-L.Alexander, 49-T.Edmunds).
Swing +98.8 for BillsExpected points −1.18 for BillsThe model had Bills 2 points higher than the market did.play 80
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:29LAC +99% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 40 for 10 yards (57-L.Alexander, 49-T.Edmunds).
1st · 10:53BUF +6% win prob(10:53) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to BUF 13 for 25 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught at BUF 33, crossing from left.
1st · 11:32LAC +3% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 14 for -3 yards (42-U.Nwosu).
1st · 7:13BUF +3% win prob(7:13) 30-A.Ekeler right end to BUF 35 for 16 yards (50-R.Humber, 21-J.Poyer). End-around.
1st · 12:55BUF +3% win prob(12:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 45-M.Murphy.
3rd · 2:54LAC +3% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 45-M.Murphy INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Phillips [54-M.Ingram] at LAC 25. 31-A.Phillips to LAC 25 for no gain (45-M.Murphy).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Williams's 10-yard touchdown catch with 9:32 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:32Mike Williams·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+77–0
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Chargers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.08Bills: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.60Chargers: +0.60 expected points added per play
−0.02Bills: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Chargers: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Bills: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 54 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Bills’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Bills 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.7% in week 1 against 46.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bills16.7%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 21.7 points below their season mean of 21.7% and 1.7 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Ekeler left−93% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 40 for 10 yards (57-L.Alexander, 49-T.Edmunds).
Q2 0:29 · Chargers · 2nd & 5 at LAC 30 · gained 10 · +1.18 EP · −93.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 81 yards from the LAC 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
612
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1172%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4871%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2527%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3540%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4913%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 17
Chargers6Bills0
Chargers7Bills0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 10
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
Chargers13Bills0
Chargers14Bills0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Bills 20
The period ended13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chargers 21
2nd quarter43 plays
Chargers14Bills3
Field goal3 plays
Chargers20Bills3
Chargers21Bills3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bills 9
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 33
Chargers27Bills3
Chargers28Bills3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Bills 2
Chargers28Bills6
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chargers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defenders
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter37 plays
Chargers28Bills12
Chargers28Bills13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chargers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Chargers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 15
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter1 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
4th quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Bills 46
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Bills 33
Intercepted2 plays
Chargers31Bills13
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 1
Chargers31Bills19
Chargers31Bills20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chargers 3
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
