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2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

20

New York Jets

12

NYJ -3 upsetU 43 ✓

Miami Dolphins 20–12. Biggest swing: Q1 2:53, MIA +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑MIA ↓
Q1 · 2:53MIA — NYJ NYJ ball · 2nd & 6NYJ 64%

(2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at NYJ 46. 22-T.McDonald to NYJ 15 for 31 yards (29-B.Powell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 2:53MIA +18% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at NYJ 46. 22-T.McDonald to NYJ 15 for 31 yards (29-B.Powell).
  2. Q3 · 11:44MIA +13% win prob(11:44) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 17 for -12 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins) [48-J.Jenkins], RECOVERED by NYJ-48-J.Jenkins at MIA 12. 48-J.Jenkins to MIA 12 for no gain (17-R.Tannehill).
  3. Q2 · 5:07MIA +13% win prob(5:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-R.Anderson to NYJ 46 for 7 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso), RECOVERED by MIA-52-R.McMillan at NYJ 49. 52-R.McMillan to NYJ 49 for no gain (83-E.Tomlinson). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  4. Q3 · 11:38MIA +12% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 16-T.Pryor INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 0. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsJets
Offensive plays5563
Total yards260362 (edge)
Yards per play4.75.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.13 (edge)-0.28
Success rate49% (edge)33%
Dropback rate49%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.21 (edge)-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06 (edge)-0.38
Third downs6/12 (edge)3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)58 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1520 (edge)
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Jets outgained Dolphins 362–260 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

25/41, 334 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

17/23, 168 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-5.6 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Kenyan DrakeRB

11 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

8 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Quincy EnunwaWR

7/11 for 92 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Terrelle PryorWR

4/8 for 84 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 256232:36Punt
2NYJNYJ 46173:15Punt
3MIAMIA 404-132:23Punt
4NYJNYJ 107244:05Interception
5MIANYJ 154151:29Touchdown
6NYJNYJ 255-32:02Punt
7MIAMIA 40461:24Punt
8NYJNYJ 175241:45Punt
9MIAMIA 188303:42Punt
10NYJNYJ 84382:23Fumble
11MIANYJ 493340:46Touchdown
12NYJNYJ 255-71:41Punt
13MIAMIA 389571:47Touchdown
14NYJNYJ 256740:42End of half
15NYJNYJ 259753:09Touchdown
16MIAMIA 292-170:13Fumble
17NYJMIA 12100:05Interception
18MIAMIA 207253:07Punt
19NYJNYJ 76303:09Punt
20MIAMIA 176393:57Fumble
21NYJNYJ 4111276:14Turnover on downs
22MIAMIA 25501:05Punt
23NYJNYJ 1410633:05Turnover on downs
24MIAMIA 2513615:56End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Ryan Tannehill17/23168204-5.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenyan Drake11534.811.4
Ryan Tannehill8445.50-5.3
Frank Gore9252.80-3.0
Albert Wilson284.000.2
Jakeem Grant155.001.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Albert Wilson3537122%-0.2
Danny Amendola4432017%1.6
Jakeem Grant2427017%0.8
Frank Gore111904%2.6
A.J. Derby121919%1.1
Kenyan Drake4417017%-0.1
Kenny Stills2317013%1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kiko Alonso1200.000
Davon Godchaux420.000
Bobby McCain400.001
Akeem Spence210.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick210.000
Reshad Jones210.000
Raekwon McMillan300.000
Vincent Taylor210.000
Andre Branch200.000
Cameron Wake110.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold25/41334123-5.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isaiah Crowell12352.90-3.4
Bilal Powell561.20-2.6
Sam Darnold210.50-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Quincy Enunwa71192027%-1.8
Terrelle Pryor4884020%-0.8
Bilal Powell5674115%4.3
Christopher Herndon2430010%-3.5
Robbie Chosen3527012%-4.4
Eric Tomlinson122405%1.9
Isaiah Crowell23407%-1.0
Jermaine Kearse12-105%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Buster Skrine610.000
Doug Middleton520.000
Jamal Adams431.000
Leonard Williams510.000
Avery Williamson400.000
Darron Lee130.000
Steve McLendon210.000
Trumaine Johnson210.000
Brandon Copeland301.000
Morris Claiborne110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -3
Closing total
43
MIA moneyline
+153
NYJ moneyline
-170

Jets closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 32 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
80°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
MIA 7 days · NYJ 6 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.