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Miami Dolphins 20, Jets 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 2:53, 2nd and 6, on T.J. McDonald — 17.8 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:53 · 2nd and 6
T.J. McDonald
Dolphins
(2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at NYJ 46. 22-T.McDonald to NYJ 15 for 31 yards (29-B.Powell).
Jets closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 20–12. Biggest swing: Q1 2:53, Dolphins +17.8% win probability on one snap.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Robbie ChosenDolphinsQ2 5:07(5:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-R.Anderson to NYJ 46 for 7 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso), RECOVERED by MIA-52-R.McMillan at NYJ 49. 52-R.McMillan to NYJ 49 for no gain (83-E.Tomlinson). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
12.8pts
Ryan TannehillJetsQ3 11:44(11:44) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 17 for -12 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins) [48-J.Jenkins], RECOVERED by NYJ-48-J.Jenkins at MIA 12. 48-J.Jenkins to MIA 12 for no gain (17-R.Tannehill).
13.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 10 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Dolphins155 of 166 plays carry both curves
(2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at NYJ 46. 22-T.McDonald to NYJ 15 for 31 yards (29-B.Powell).
Swing −17.8 for JetsExpected points −6.82 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:53MIA +18% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at NYJ 46. 22-T.McDonald to NYJ 15 for 31 yards (29-B.Powell).
3rd · 11:44MIA +13% win prob(11:44) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 17 for -12 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins) [48-J.Jenkins], RECOVERED by NYJ-48-J.Jenkins at MIA 12. 48-J.Jenkins to MIA 12 for no gain (17-R.Tannehill).
2nd · 5:07MIA +13% win prob(5:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-R.Anderson to NYJ 46 for 7 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso), RECOVERED by MIA-52-R.McMillan at NYJ 49. 52-R.McMillan to NYJ 49 for no gain (83-E.Tomlinson). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 11:38MIA +12% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 16-T.Pryor INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 0. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 7:00NYJ +8% win prob(7:00) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to NYJ 10, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
2nd · 7:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenyan Drake's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 1:16 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:16Kenyan Drake·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd4:19Albert Wilson·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+714–0
2nd0:46A.J. Derby·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill · kick no good, wide right+620–0
3rd11:58Bilal Powell·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold · kick no good, wide left+620–6
4th10:11Jason Myers·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+320–9
4th6:00Jason Myers·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+320–12
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Dolphins4–5Jets
260Total yards362
4.7Yards per play5.7
49%Success rate33%
50%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays8
15First downs20
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers3
The read
Jets ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Dolphins: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.28Jets: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Dolphins: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.25Jets: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Dolphins: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.38Jets: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 55 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Jets’s 63 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Jets 3.
NoteJets outgained Dolphins 362-260 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.5% in week 1 against 25.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jets25.9%
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.5%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 52.9% and 1.9 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at NYJ 46. 22-T.McDonald to NYJ 15 for 31 yards (29-B.Powell).
Q1 2:53 · Jets · 2nd & 6 at NYJ 39 · gained nothing · -6.82 EP · −19.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 75 yards from the NYJ 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
39%
Yards
619
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.3479%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0954%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1659%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.8160%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 48
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 4 to the Jets 15
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 40
Dolphins6Jets0
Dolphins7Jets0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 6
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 46
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 41
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Jets 44
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 39
Dolphins13Jets0
Dolphins14Jets0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Jets 29
Punt5 plays
Dolphins20Jets0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Jets 19
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 14
3rd quarter37 plays
Dolphins20Jets6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 28
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 45
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Jets 37
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Jets 39
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 41 to midfield
4th quarter43 plays
Dolphins20Jets9
Field goal10 plays, from midfield to the Dolphins 25
Punt5 plays
Dolphins20Jets12
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Dolphins 23
The period ended18 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jets -3
Closing total
43
Dolphins moneyline
+153
Jets moneyline
-170
Jets closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 32 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Jets 6 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Todd Bowles
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
MIA +7% win prob
(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 48 for -8 yards (51-B.Copeland).
3rd · 1:32MIA +7% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill Aborted. 67-D.Kilgore FUMBLES at NYJ 39, RECOVERED by NYJ-54-A.Williamson at NYJ 41. 54-A.Williamson to NYJ 41 for no gain (78-L.Tunsil).
2nd · 4:19NYJ +6% win prob(4:19) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
