2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium

New England Patriots

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

NE -2 upsetO 44.5 ✓15 mph windPatriots closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–20. Biggest swing: Q4 13:30, NE +15% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:30NE — JAX JAX ball · 2nd & 9JAX 88%

(13:30) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at JAX 25. 53-K.Van Noy to JAX 25 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:30NE +15% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at JAX 25. 53-K.Van Noy to JAX 25 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
Q4 · 12:35NE +13% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at JAX 32 for -8 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler), RECOVERED by JAX-56-D.Fowler at JAX 32. 56-D.Fowler to JAX 32 for no gain (68-L.Waddle).
Q1 · 11:49NE +9% win prob(11:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q1 · 11:02JAX +6% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins to NE 41 for 11 yards (32-D.McCourty).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Jaguars
Offensive plays	60	68
Total yards	303	481 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	40%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18	0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.20 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	10/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

29/45, 376 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

19.5 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

24/35, 234 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.9 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

T.J. YeldonRB

10 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

6 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Keelan ColeWR

7/8 for 116 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Dede WestbrookWR

4/5 for 82 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	9	39	3:22	Turnover on downs
2	JAX	JAX 44	10	49	3:52	Touchdown
3	NE	NE 25	5	8	1:44	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 16	8	89	3:52	Touchdown
5	NE	NE 25	8	23	2:18	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 20	6	50	3:47	Punt
7	NE	NE 6	16	72	8:20	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 25	15	75	2:36	Touchdown
9	NE	NE 38	2	0	0:09	End of half
10	JAX	JAX 19	16	71	7:10	Turnover on downs
11	NE	NE 10	5	5	1:07	Punt
12	JAX	JAX 30	2	19	0:55	Fumble
13	NE	JAX 48	9	48	4:06	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 25	5	1	1:05	Punt
15	NE	NE 41	5	31	1:27	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 17	3	1	0:47	Interception
17	NE	JAX 25	3	-7	0:57	Fumble
18	JAX	JAX 32	5	25	2:49	Punt
19	NE	NE 9	4	9	1:49	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 39	2	61	0:13	Touchdown
21	NE	NE 25	10	75	3:55	Touchdown
22	JAX	JAX 16	10	40	3:40	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 89 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	24/35	234	2	0	2	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	10	34	3.4	-3.9
Rex Burkhead	6	22	3.7	-0.7
James White	4	11	2.8	-2.0
Tom Brady	3	10	3.3	2.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	5	5.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James White	7	8	73	0	23%	5.3
Phillip Dorsett	5	7	44	0	20%	-0.1
Chris Hogan	3	5	42	2	14%	5.4
Jacob Hollister	3	3	35	0	9%	2.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	5	18	0	14%	-1.4
Rob Gronkowski	2	4	15	0	11%	0.3
Sony Michel	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.3
James Develin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Kyle Van Noy	5	1	1	1
Jason McCourty	6	0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	5	0	0	2
Malcom Brown	5	0	0	0
Dont'a Hightower	3	1	0	0
Devin McCourty	4	0	0	0
Eric Rowe	3	0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	2	1	0	0
Keionta Davis	3	0	0	0
Patrick Chung	3	0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blake Bortles	29/45	376	4	1	0	19.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	10	58	5.8	-0.3
Blake Bortles	6	35	5.8	2.2
Corey Grant	4	13	3.3	-1.1
Brandon Wilds	3	4	1.3	-1.5
Dede Westbrook	1	-6	-6.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keelan Cole	7	8	116	1	18%	10.9
Dede Westbrook	4	5	82	1	11%	6.9
Corey Grant	6	7	56	0	16%	3.3
Donte Moncrief	4	9	34	1	20%	-2.5
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	3	4	23	1	9%	2.3
Niles Paul	1	1	22	0	2%	1.8
James O'Shaughnessy	1	1	17	0	2%	1.2
T.J. Yeldon	2	5	13	0	11%	-2.0
D.J. Chark	1	4	13	0	9%	-7.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Telvin Smith	7	1	0.0
Myles Jack	7	1	0.0
Ronnie Harrison	7	0	0.0
Barry Church	3	1	0.0
Tashaun Gipson	3	1	0.0
A.J. Bouye	4	0	0.0
D.J. Hayden	4	0	1.0
Jalen Ramsey	3	0	0.0
Marcell Dareus	3	0	0.0
Josh Wells	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2
Closing total: 44.5
NE moneyline: -133
JAX moneyline: +120

Patriots closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 97°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: NE 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Doug Marrone

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.