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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 31. Final.
Patriots -2 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Patriots 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 13:30, 2nd and 9, on K.Van — 14.6 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:30 · 2nd and 9
K.Van
Patriots
(13:30) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at JAX 25. 53-K.Van Noy to JAX 25 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
O 44.5 ✓
92°F
Patriots closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 31–20. Biggest swing: Q4 13:30, Patriots +14.6% win probability on one snap.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Stephen GostkowskiJaguarsQ1 11:49(11:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
9.3pts
Tom BradyJaguarsQ4 12:35(12:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at JAX 32 for -8 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler), RECOVERED by JAX-56-D.Fowler at JAX 32. 56-D.Fowler to JAX 32 for no gain (68-L.Waddle).
12.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against Patriots at 4 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 6 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Patriots at +0.01 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Patriots163 of 172 plays carry both curves
(13:30) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at JAX 25. 53-K.Van Noy to JAX 25 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
Swing −14.6 for JaguarsExpected points −4.28 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 4 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:30NE +15% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at JAX 25. 53-K.Van Noy to JAX 25 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
4th · 12:35NE +13% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at JAX 32 for -8 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler), RECOVERED by JAX-56-D.Fowler at JAX 32. 56-D.Fowler to JAX 32 for no gain (68-L.Waddle).
1st · 11:49NE +9% win prob(11:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
1st · 11:02JAX +6% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins to NE 41 for 11 yards (32-D.McCourty).
3rd · 6:00NE +5% win prob(6:00) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark to JAX 49 for 13 yards (24-S.Gilmore). FUMBLES (24-S.Gilmore), RECOVERED by NE-21-D.Harmon at NE 48. 21-D.Harmon to JAX 48 for 4 yards (72-J.Wells).
4th · 14:54NE +5% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to JAX 28 for -2 yards (25-D.Hayden).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Donte Moncrief's 4-yard touchdown catch with 7:52 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th3:48Chris Hogan·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+720–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryJaguars
Patriots1–8Jaguars
303Total yards481
5.0Yards per play7.1
40%Success rate47%
33%Third-down rate71%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
17First downs27
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Jaguars ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Patriots: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.21Jaguars: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Patriots: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.35Jaguars: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Patriots: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.20Jaguars: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Jaguars 5.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, +17.5 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Jaguars13.2%
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 17.5 pts, 17.5 points above their season mean of 0.0 pts and 1.6 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
53 dressed · 9 never used
68LaAdrian WaddleT · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Trent BrownT · Every snap100%61 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%61 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%61 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time95%58 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Full-time90%55 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Full-time90%55 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Rotational46%28 snaps
46James DevelinFB · Rotational33%20 snaps
34Rex BurkheadRB · Situational23%14 snaps
47Jacob HollisterTE · Situational23%14 snaps
83Dwayne AllenTE · Situational23%14 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Situational21%13 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Brian SchwenkeCJ.C. JacksonDBKeion CrossenDBDerek RiversDEBrian HoyerQBKenjon BarnerRBCole CrostonTMarcus CannonTCorey ColemanWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Bortles pass−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:30) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at JAX 25. 53-K.Van Noy to JAX 25 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
Q4 13:30 · Jaguars · 2nd & 9 at JAX 18 · gained nothing · -4.28 EP · −10.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 84 yards from the JAX 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
782
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2868%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0763%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.1543%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.09100%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5067%
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.58100%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.540%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1680%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
No good9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jaguars 36
Patriots0Jaguars6
Patriots0Jaguars7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Patriots 4
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Patriots0Jaguars13
Patriots0Jaguars14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Patriots 24
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 45
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Patriots 40
Patriots3Jaguars14
Field goal17 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Jaguars 11
Patriots3Jaguars20
Patriots3Jaguars21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Patriots 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Drive ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 39
Patriots3Jaguars24
Drive ended5 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 18
Punt1 play
Fumble lost1 play
Patriots9Jaguars24
Patriots10Jaguars24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 26
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Jaguars 32
4th quarter46 plays
Patriots13Jaguars24
Field goal3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 18
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 24
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Patriots 43
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 18
Patriots13Jaguars30
Patriots13Jaguars31
Touchdown2 plays
Patriots19Jaguars31
Patriots20Jaguars31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jaguars 29
The period ended14 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Patriots 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -2
Closing total
44.5
Patriots moneyline
-133
Jaguars moneyline
+120
Patriots closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Hot, 92°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Doug Marrone
1st · 8:23JAX +5% win prob(8:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 30-C.Grant to NE 4 for 8 yards (53-K.Van Noy). JAX-74-C.Robinson was injured during the play. He is Out.
2nd · 4:14JAX +5% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 15-C.Hogan to JAX 22 for 6 yards (50-Tel.Smith). PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 11 yards, enforced at JAX 22.
