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Dallas Cowboys 20, Giants 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 13:28, 2nd and 10, on Eli Manning — 8.0 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:28 · 2nd and 10
Eli Manning
Cowboys
(13:28) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 32 for -8 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson) [57-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by DAL-97-T.Charlton at NYG 27. 97-T.Charlton to NYG 27 for no gain (74-E.Flowers).
Dome
Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Dallas Cowboys 20–13. Biggest swing: Q3 13:28, Cowboys +8.0% win probability on one snap.
8.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tavon AustinCowboysQ1 13:37(13:37) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-K.Martin].
7.8pts
Aldrick RosasGiantsQ3 4:34(4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
5.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Giants at 2 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Giants at +0.05 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 17 on third down, against Cowboys at 3 of 10 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Deonte ThompsonCowboysLight5 targets, 22% of the throws — 4 for 33.
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants152 of 161 plays carry both curves
(13:28) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 32 for -8 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson) [57-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by DAL-97-T.Charlton at NYG 27. 97-T.Charlton to NYG 27 for no gain (74-E.Flowers).
Swing +8.0 for CowboysExpected points +5.98 for CowboysThe model had Giants 2 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:28NYG +8% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 32 for -8 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson) [57-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by DAL-97-T.Charlton at NYG 27. 97-T.Charlton to NYG 27 for no gain (74-E.Flowers).
1st · 13:37DAL +8% win prob(13:37) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-K.Martin].
3rd · 4:34DAL +6% win prob(4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4th · 15:00NYG +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 27 for -10 yards (98-T.Crawford).
1st · 15:00DAL +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 17-A.Hurns to DAL 34 for 9 yards (24-E.Apple).
3rd · 1:37DAL +4% win prob(1:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 36 for 3 yards (45-R.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tavon Austin's 64-yard touchdown catch with 13:37 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:37Tavon Austin·64-yd TD catch64-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–7
1st6:06Brett Maher·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+30–10
3rd10:47Brett Maher·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+30–13
3rd4:34Aldrick Rosas·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+33–13
4th1:32Evan Engram·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning+710–20
4th0:15Aldrick Rosas·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+313–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCowboys
Giants2–6Cowboys
255Total yards300
3.8Yards per play6.3
40%Success rate42%
47%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays6
17First downs15
6Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Giants: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.11Cowboys: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Giants: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.09Cowboys: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Giants: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.33Cowboys: +0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 67 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 48 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Cowboys 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.6% in week 1 against 45.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 10 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Cowboys15.7%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 17.3 points above their season mean of 57.7% and 1.4 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:37) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-K.Martin].
Q1 13:37 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 36 · gained 64 · +4.65 EP · +12.5% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 82 yards from the DAL 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
553
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0276%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0450%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.6275%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5122%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.71100%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Giants0Cowboys6
Giants0Cowboys7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 36
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 48
Giants0Cowboys10
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Giants 19
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 45
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 41
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cowboys 37
Punt13 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 49
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 38
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 40
Giants0Cowboys13
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 11
Giants3Cowboys13
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Cowboys 3
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Giants 37
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Giants3Cowboys19
Giants3Cowboys20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Giants 6
Giants9Cowboys20
Giants10Cowboys20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 18
Giants13Cowboys20
Field goal12 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3
Closing total
42
Giants moneyline
+138
Cowboys moneyline
-152
Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 42; the game landed 33 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Parry
Rest
Giants 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Pat Shurmur vs Jason Garrett
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 14:20
NYG +4% win prob
(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 11 for -13 yards (97-T.Charlton).
3rd · 9:12DAL +4% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 12-C.Latimer to DAL 25 for 37 yards (24-C.Awuzie). Injury update> New York's Eli Apple is out with a groin injury.
Giantscategory by categoryCowboys
Giants0
Cowboys6
