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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders160 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at LV 18 for 26 yards (27-R.Nelson).
Swing +25.9 for BroncosExpected points +1.77 for BroncosThe model had Raiders 2 points higher than the market did.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:18DEN +26% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at LV 18 for 26 yards (27-R.Nelson).
4th · 0:06OAK +18% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper pushed ob at LV 38 for 13 yards (22-T.Brock).
4th · 2:06OAK +16% win prob(2:06) 5-J.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
4th · 0:10DEN +15% win prob(:10) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.
2nd · 11:42DEN +13% win prob(11:42) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle pushed ob at LV 22 for 53 yards (31-M.Gilchrist).
2nd · 9:41OAK +11% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right intended for 80-J.Butt INTERCEPTED by 22-R.Melvin at LV 1. 22-R.Melvin to LV 16 for 15 yards (61-M.Paradis).
4th · 6:02
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 36-yard field goal with 0:10 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:36M.Nugent·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+33–0
2nd11:52M.Nugent·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+36–0
2nd0:38M.Lynch·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by S.Barrett+612–0
3rd9:06Broncos·7 pts7 pointsthe league feed did not file the play that scored themthe league feed did not file the play that scored them+712–7
4th0:10Brandon McManus·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.King · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+319–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 1.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −0.0 pts in week 1 against −13.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Broncos3.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.8 pts, 11.1 points below their season mean of -2.7 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Oakland Raiders
53 dressed · 8 never used
72Donald PennT · Every snap100%65 snaps
70Kelechi OsemeleG · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%65 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%65 snaps
82Jordy NelsonWR · Full-time83%54 snaps
89Amari CooperWR · Full-time83%54 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Full-time80%52 snaps
24Marshawn LynchRB · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
12Martavis BryantWR · Rotational40%26 snaps
86Lee SmithTE · Rotational34%22 snaps
10Seth RobertsWR · Rotational34%22 snaps
28Doug MartinRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational17%11 snaps
41Keith SmithFB · Situational12%8 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Situational12%8 snaps
19Brandon LaFellWR · Situational11%7 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Situational5%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Nick NelsonCBFadol BrownDEP.J. HallDTT.J. ClemmingsOTJustin MurrayOTAJ McCarronQBDeAndre WashingtonRBDwayne HarrisWR
Denver Broncos
53 dressed · 8 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%66 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%66 snaps
60Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Ronald LearyG · Every snap100%66 snaps
4Case KeenumQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
88Demaryius ThomasWR · Full-time89%59 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time82%54 snaps
10Emmanuel SandersWR · Full-time82%54 snaps
82Jeff HeuermanTE · Heavy rotation62%41 snaps
77Billy TurnerOG · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
66Jared VeldheerT · Rotational48%32 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Rotational42%28 snaps
80Jake ButtTE · Rotational39%26 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Rotational33%22 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Situational24%16 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Situational18%12 snaps
32Andy JanovichRB · Situational17%11 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Situational6%4 snaps
83Matt LaCosseTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Isaac YiadomDBDeMarcus WalkerDESam JonesGA.J. JohnsonMLBChad KellyQBKevin HoganQBShamarko ThomasSSElijah WilkinsonT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper pushed ob at LV 38 for 13 yards (22-T.Brock).
Q4 0:06 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at LV 25 · gained 13 · -0.01 EP · −25.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 75 yards from the LV 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
43%
Yards
758
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0663%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3260%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4238%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2350%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1560%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.9440%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Raiders3Broncos0
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 4
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 31
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 27
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 29 to midfield
2nd quarter41 plays
Raiders6Broncos0
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Broncos 21
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 18
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 25
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 39
Raiders12Broncos0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 39
3rd quarter42 plays
Drive ended10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 4
Raiders12Broncos7
Drive ended4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 31
Raiders18Broncos7
Touchdown2 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 20
Touchdown1 play
Raiders19Broncos7
Raiders19Broncos10
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Raiders 21
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 46
4th quarter50 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Broncos 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders19Broncos16
Raiders19Broncos17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Raiders 1
Punt15 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Raiders19Broncos20
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Raiders 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -5.5
Closing total
44.5
Raiders moneyline
+207
Broncos moneyline
-231
Broncos closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 39 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Hot, 91°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Raiders 6 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Vance Joseph
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DEN +11% win prob
(6:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 1:47DEN +10% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders to DEN 31 for 21 yards (29-L.Hall).
