2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Oakland Raiders

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -5.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓92°FBroncos closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Denver Broncos 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:18, DEN +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:18OAK — DEN DEN ball · 2nd & 10OAK 60%

(:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at LV 18 for 26 yards (27-R.Nelson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:18DEN +26% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at LV 18 for 26 yards (27-R.Nelson).
Q4 · 0:06OAK +18% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper pushed ob at LV 38 for 13 yards (22-T.Brock).
Q4 · 2:06OAK +16% win prob(2:06) 5-J.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
Q4 · 0:10DEN +15% win prob(:10) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

19/35, 222 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

14 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

4.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Royce FreemanRB

8 att, 28 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Emmanuel SandersWR

4/4 for 96 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jake ButtTE

4/5 for 48 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · -2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	10	62	5:27	Turnover on downs
2	DEN	DEN 25	5	5	1:29	Punt
3	LV	LV 24	4	2	1:38	Fumble
4	DEN	DEN 25	4	9	1:27	Punt
5	LV	LV 20	4	7	1:42	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 18	4	9	1:36	Punt
7	LV	LV 29	9	53	4:54	Turnover on downs
8	DEN	DEN 25	6	57	2:15	Interception
9	LV	LV 16	4	8	2:00	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 36	4	-2	2:06	Punt
11	LV	LV 25	11	70	4:51	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 25	5	34	0:35	End of half
13	DEN	DEN 25	13	70	5:54	Touchdown
14	LV	LV 25	8	85	3:41	Touchdown
15	DEN	DEN 25	11	54	2:42	Turnover on downs
16	LV	LV 25	11	42	4:37	Turnover on downs
17	DEN	DEN 33	15	77	7:08	Touchdown
18	LV	LV 25	10	31	4:00	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 20	10	72	1:52	Turnover on downs
20	LV	LV 25	2	13	0:06	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	19/35	222	0	1	1	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	14	107	7.6	0	4.3
Royce Freeman	8	28	3.5	1	-0.5
Devontae Booker	3	17	5.7	0	-0.9
Case Keenum	3	16	5.3	1	3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	4	4	96	12%	7.3
Jake Butt	4	5	48	15%	-2.7
Tim Patrick	1	2	26	6%	1.4
Demaryius Thomas	5	11	18	32%	-0.7
Andy Janovich	1	1	11	3%	0.7
Jeff Heuerman	2	3	10	9%	0.3
Courtland Sutton	1	6	9	18%	-4.3
Phillip Lindsay	1	1	4	3%	-0.1
Royce Freeman	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Simmons	8	1	0.0	0
Tramaine Brock	5	1	0.0	1
Todd Davis	4	1	0.0	0
Bradley Roby	5	0	0.0	0
Von Miller	3	2	1.0	0
Domata Peko	4	0	0.0	0
Brandon Marshall	2	2	0.0	0
Zach Kerr	1	2	0.0	0
Adam Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -5.5
Closing total: 44.5
OAK moneyline: +207
DEN moneyline: -231

Broncos closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 39 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 92°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: OAK 6 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Vance Joseph

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.