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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia21
BY 6final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay27
Philadelphia Eagles 21 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27. Final.
Eagles -3 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Eagles 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:51, 1st and 10, on O.J. Howard — 20.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:51 · 1st and 10
O.J. Howard
Buccaneers
(4:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 80-O.Howard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 46.5 ✓
Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–21. Biggest swing: Q2 4:51, Buccaneers +20.2% win probability on one snap.
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeSean JacksonBuccaneersQ1 15:00(15:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.9pts
Nick FolesBuccaneersQ1 1:03(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at PHI 38 for -8 yards (58-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (58-K.Alexander) [58-K.Alexander], RECOVERED by TB-33-C.Davis at PHI 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
11.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Eagles170 of 185 plays carry both curves
(4:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 80-O.Howard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.2 for BuccaneersExpected points +6.36 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 15 points higher than the market did.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:51TB +20% win prob(4:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 80-O.Howard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00TB +20% win prob(15:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:03PHI +11% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at PHI 38 for -8 yards (58-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (58-K.Alexander) [58-K.Alexander], RECOVERED by TB-33-C.Davis at PHI 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
2nd · 0:07PHI +10% win prob(:07) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
4th · 2:51TB +9% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:22PHI +9% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 21-R.Darby (23-R.McLeod) at PHI 37. 21-R.Darby to TB 47 for 16 yards (25-P.Barber).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
O.J. Howard's 75-yard touchdown catch with 4:51 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st15:00DeSean Jackson·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+70–7
2nd4:51O.J. Howard·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+67–13
2nd0:46Chris Godwin·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+77–20
3rd9:22Mike Evans·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+77–27
4th2:51Nelson Agholor·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+721–27
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryBuccaneers
Eagles3–5Buccaneers
412Total yards437
5.6Yards per play7.7
43%Success rate47%
33%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays4
22First downs19
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Eagles: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.10Buccaneers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Eagles: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.38Buccaneers: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.34Buccaneers: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 74 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 57 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.6% in week 1 against 23.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers23.5%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.5%, 8.0 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 1.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 15:00 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 25 · gained 75 · +5.53 EP · +21.0% win probability
168 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
848
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1857%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31-0.2077%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3078%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1045%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Eagles0Buccaneers6
Eagles0Buccaneers7
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 30
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 44
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 31
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 46
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter58 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 47
Eagles6Buccaneers7
Eagles7Buccaneers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Buccaneers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Eagles7Buccaneers13
Touchdown4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 30
Eagles7Buccaneers19
Eagles7Buccaneers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Eagles 8
No good12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 49
Eagles7Buccaneers26
Eagles7Buccaneers27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Eagles 4
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 28
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 37
Eagles13Buccaneers27
Eagles14Buccaneers27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Buccaneers 2
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 49
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Buccaneers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 43
Eagles20Buccaneers27
Eagles21Buccaneers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Buccaneers 2
Punt16 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 46
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -3
Closing total
46.5
Eagles moneyline
-142
Buccaneers moneyline
+129
Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 86°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; mainly clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Eagles 10 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Dirk Koetter
2nd · 0:37TB +8% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 86-Z.Ertz ran ob at TB 39 for 34 yards [93-G.McCoy].
4th · 12:44PHI +8% win prob(12:44) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 13-M.Evans to PHI 35 for 16 yards (27-M.Jenkins). FUMBLES (27-M.Jenkins), RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hicks at PHI 30. 58-J.Hicks to PHI 43 for 13 yards (13-M.Evans).
