2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

PHI -3 upsetO 46.5 ✓91°FEagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–21. Biggest swing: Q2 4:51, TB +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:51PHI — TB TB ball · 1st & 10PHI 62%

(4:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 80-O.Howard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:51TB +20% win prob(4:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 80-O.Howard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 15:00TB +20% win prob(15:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:03PHI +11% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at PHI 38 for -8 yards (58-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (58-K.Alexander) [58-K.Alexander], RECOVERED by TB-33-C.Davis at PHI 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q2 · 0:07PHI +10% win prob(:07) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	74	57
Total yards	412	437 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	7.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	43%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	5/15	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

27/33, 402 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

19.3 expected points added · +19.7% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Nick FolesQB

35/48, 334 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.9 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Corey ClementRB

6 att, 30 yds, 1 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Wendell SmallwoodRB

7 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

DeSean JacksonWR

4/4 for 129 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

O.J. HowardTE

3/4 for 96 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	3	75	0:11	Touchdown
2	PHI	PHI 25	5	5	1:54	Punt
3	TB	TB 17	6	22	2:34	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 13	7	50	4:17	Punt
5	TB	TB 15	6	25	2:11	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 28	5	18	2:57	Fumble
7	TB	PHI 47	2	-6	0:43	Interception
8	PHI	TB 47	4	2	1:09	Punt
9	TB	TB 20	8	27	3:04	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 22	14	69	6:09	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	3	75	0:12	Touchdown
12	PHI	PHI 25	5	5	2:13	Punt
13	TB	TB 30	7	70	1:44	Touchdown
14	PHI	PHI 25	8	51	0:38	Turnover on downs
15	TB	TB 32	1	0	0:04	End of half
16	PHI	PHI 25	6	29	2:24	Turnover on downs
17	TB	TB 46	8	54	3:17	Touchdown
18	PHI	PHI 25	5	3	2:20	Punt
19	TB	TB 16	7	21	3:08	Punt
20	PHI	PHI 16	10	84	3:42	Touchdown
21	TB	TB 25	7	40	2:39	Fumble
22	PHI	PHI 43	8	22	3:47	Turnover on downs
23	TB	TB 35	4	8	2:07	Punt
24	PHI	PHI 22	9	68	3:50	Touchdown
25	TB	TB 15	10	26	2:27	Punt
26	PHI	PHI 10	3	6	0:19	Fumble

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	35/48	334	1	0	3	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Corey Clement	6	30	5.0	1	1.7
Wendell Smallwood	7	28	4.0	0	0.5
Jay Ajayi	7	23	3.3	1	-1.7
Nick Foles	3	8	2.7	0	4.8
Nelson Agholor	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	11	13	94	0	28%	-2.3
Nelson Agholor	8	12	88	1	26%	9.4
Joshua Perkins	4	6	57	0	13%	1.9
Corey Clement	5	6	55	0	13%	-0.8
Kamar Aiken	5	6	39	0	13%	-1.2
Jay Ajayi	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.1
Wendell Smallwood	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.7
Shelton Gibson	0	2	0	0	4%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nigel Bradham	2	5	1.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	4	3	0.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	7	0	0.0	1	1
Fletcher Cox	4	1	1.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	4	1	0.0	0	0
Rodney McLeod	2	1	0.0	0	1
Derek Barnett	3	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Bennett	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	27/33	402	4	1	2	19.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Peyton Barber	16	22	1.4	-8.5
Jacquizz Rodgers	5	13	2.6	0.1
Shaun Wilson	1	9	9.0	0.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeSean Jackson	4	4	129	1	12%	11.1
O.J. Howard	3	4	96	1	12%	2.3
Mike Evans	10	12	83	1	36%	-2.4
Chris Godwin	5	6	56	1	18%	5.8
Jacquizz Rodgers	3	3	23	0	9%	-1.4
Adam Humphries	1	2	8	0	6%	0.2
Peyton Barber	1	2	7	0	6%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ryan Smith	6	2	0.0	2
Chris Conte	5	2	0.0	0
Lavonte David	4	3	0.0	1
Kwon Alexander	5	1	1.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	2	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	6	0	0.0	1
Justin Evans	4	1	0.0	1
M.J. Stewart	4	1	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	0	1.0	0
Gerald McCoy	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -3
Closing total: 46.5
PHI moneyline: -142
TB moneyline: +129

Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 91°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: PHI 10 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Dirk Koetter