For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Seahawks164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(6:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 20-R.Penny INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at SEA 49. 20-P.Amukamara for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.2 for BearsExpected points +8.65 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:47SEA +14% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 20-R.Penny INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at SEA 49. 20-P.Amukamara for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:19CHI +7% win prob(10:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:50CHI +7% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles up the middle to SEA 33 for 17 yards (51-B.Mingo).
2nd · 9:05SEA +6% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 12-A.Robinson II INTERCEPTED by 26-LA.Griffin (30-B.McDougald) at SEA 49. 26-LA.Griffin to CHI 43 for 8 yards (65-C.Whitehair).
2nd · 0:02CHI +6% win prob(:02) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 13:20CHI +5% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 18-J.Brown to SEA 48 for 10 yards (23-K.Fuller).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trey Burton's 3-yard touchdown catch with 4:59 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th0:18Will Dissly·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+717–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryBears
Seahawks3–3Bears
276Total yards273
4.5Yards per play4.4
44%Success rate47%
42%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays1
16First downs18
6Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Seahawks, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Seahawks: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.09Bears: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Seahawks: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.02Bears: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.20Bears: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Bears’s 62 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Bears 3.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.3 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bears19.0%
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.3%, 19.6 points above their season mean of 43.7% and 1.6 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
53 dressed · 9 never used
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%66 snaps
64J.R. SweezyG · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Germain IfediG · Every snap100%66 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time91%60 snaps
68Justin BrittC · Full-time83%55 snaps
15Brandon MarshallWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
18Jaron BrownWR · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
88Will DisslyTE · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
81Nick VannettTE · Rotational39%26 snaps
83David MooreWR · Rotational30%20 snaps
20Rashaad PennyRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
32Chris CarsonRB · Rotational29%19 snaps
22C.J. ProsiseRB · Rotational27%18 snaps
53Joey HuntC · Situational17%11 snaps
27Mike DavisRB · Situational14%9 snaps
38Tre MaddenFB · Situational9%6 snaps
19Keenan ReynoldsWR · Situational8%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Tre FlowersCBTom JohnsonDTBobby WagnerMLBJordan SimmonsOGD.J. FlukerOGK.J. WrightOLBBrett HundleyQBDelano HillSSDoug BaldwinWR
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 8 never used
65Cody WhitehairC · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Kyle LongOG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%66 snaps
64Eric KushOG · Every snap100%66 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time95%63 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Full-time95%63 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Full-time86%57 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Heavy rotation56%37 snaps
88Dion SimsTE · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Rotational32%21 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Situational3%2 snaps
11Kevin WhiteWR · Situational3%2 snaps
84Ben BrauneckerTE · Situational2%1 snap
85Daniel BrownTE · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Nick WilliamsDTMichael BurtonFBDeAndre Houston-CarsonFSIsaiah IrvingLBKylie FittsLBRashaad CowardOTChase DanielQBJavon WimsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 20-R.Penny INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at SEA 49. 20-P.Amukamara for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:47 · Seahawks · 2nd & 9 at SEA 46 · gained nothing · -8.65 EP · −13.4% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 99 yards from the SEA 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
41%
Yards
547
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1666%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.2357%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0058%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.6160%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bears 44
Seahawks0Bears6
Seahawks0Bears7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 4 to the Seahawks 3
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 39
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Seahawks 48
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 17
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Seahawks 27
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Bears 44
Punt5 plays
Seahawks0Bears10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks3Bears10
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bears 38
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 43
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 33
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 23 to midfield
Punt5 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Seahawks 25
4th quarter55 plays
Seahawks3Bears16
Seahawks3Bears17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 10
Seahawks9Bears17
Seahawks10Bears17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bears 19
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 22
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Seahawks10Bears23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 46
Seahawks10Bears24
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 41
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Seahawks 38
Seahawks16Bears24
Seahawks17Bears24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 1 to the Bears 2
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -5
Closing total
42.5
Seahawks moneyline
+206
Bears moneyline
-231
Bears closed -5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 41 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Walt Coleman
Rest
Seahawks 8 days · Bears 8 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Matt Nagy
3rd · 12:23
SEA +4% win prob
(12:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 31 for -12 yards (56-M.Kendricks).
2nd · 11:59SEA +4% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson II INTERCEPTED by 26-LA.Griffin at SEA 24. 26-LA.Griffin to SEA 24 for no gain (12-A.Robinson II).
