For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
27
6
Buffalo Bills 27–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:16, MIN +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Bills | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 66 |
| Total yards | 292 | 292 |
| Yards per play | 4.6 (edge) | 4.4 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.01 (edge) | -0.37 |
| Success rate | 38% (edge) | 36% |
| Dropback rate | 46% | 92% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.37 (edge) | -0.36 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.30 (edge) | -0.54 |
| Third downs | 4/13 | 5/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 1 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 3 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
40/55, 296 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-21.4 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
15/22, 196 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.1 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 11 | 50 | 4:59 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | MIN | MIN 7 | 4 | 3 | 0:40 | Fumble | |
| 3 | BUF | MIN 15 | 4 | 9 | 1:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | MIN | MIN 25 | 4 | 0 | 1:27 | Fumble | |
| 5 | BUF | MIN 25 | 3 | 25 | 0:48 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | MIN | MIN 25 | 7 | 19 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 35 | 12 | 69 | 5:45 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | MIN | MIN 8 | 5 | 1 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 9 | BUF | MIN 48 | 8 | 37 | 3:46 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | MIN | MIN 17 | 5 | 3 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 10 | 10 | 55 | 3:40 | Punt | |
| 12 | MIN | MIN 19 | 4 | 20 | 0:56 | End of half | |
| 13 | MIN | MIN 22 | 8 | 9 | 3:22 | Punt | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 20 | 4 | 0 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 15 | MIN | BUF 42 | 2 | 0 | 0:12 | Interception | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 34 | 9 | 23 | 5:27 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIN | MIN 5 | 5 | 17 | 1:17 | Punt | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 31 | 4 | 8 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIN | MIN 13 | 12 | 61 | 4:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 26 | 6 | 12 | 4:08 | Punt | |
| 21 | MIN | MIN 8 | 14 | 83 | 4:20 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | BUF | BUF 49 | 5 | 4 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 23 | MIN | MIN 5 | 7 | 76 | 1:53 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 83 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/22 | 196 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 | -7.3 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 2 | 6.1 |
| Marcus Murphy | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 18% | 6.0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 23% | 0.4 |
| Andre Holmes | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Hyde | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Milano | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Rafael Bush |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 40/55 | 296 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -21.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Boone | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -16.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| 0.0 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 5% | 3.4 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 14% | 0.8 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | -1.5 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -1.1 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre'Davious White | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Poyer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Lewis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent Murphy | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deon Lacey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 14 | 19 | 105 | 0 | 35% | 0.1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 11% | 2.9 |
| C.J. Ham | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 11% | -2.2 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 7% | 3.0 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 13% | -5.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 18% | -4.7 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | 0.6 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | -0.0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Weatherly | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Barr | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashawn Bower | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Linval Joseph | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Sendejo | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mackensie Alexander | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
