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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bills163 of 174 plays carry both curves
(12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.8 for VikingsExpected points −2.41 for VikingsThe model had Bills 33 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:16MIN +19% win prob(12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:37MIN +14% win prob(:37) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 33-C.Ivory to MIN 6 for 55 yards (34-A.Sendejo, 21-M.Hughes).
1st · 7:27BUF +11% win prob(7:27) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
1st · 9:30BUF +10% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 10 for 0 yards (93-T.Murphy). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy) [93-T.Murphy], RECOVERED by BUF-57-L.Alexander at MIN 15.
1st · 4:38MIN +9% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 44-M.Boone left tackle to MIN 39 for 11 yards (23-M.Hyde).
1st · 6:04BUF +9% win prob(6:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 19 for -8 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at MIN 25. 58-M.Milano to MIN 25 for no gain (74-M.Remmers).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 10:11 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:11Josh Allen·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st7:27Stephen Hauschka·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+310–0
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bills: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.37Vikings: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Bills: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.36Vikings: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Bills: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.54Vikings: −0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 63 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Vikings’s 66 at 92%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Vikings 1.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's early-down pass rate, 90.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 9.0 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +16.5 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −4.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Vikings17.2%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 90.0%, 29.5 points above their season mean of 60.5% and 1.9 times their own 15.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 10 for 0 yards (93-T.Murphy). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy) [93-T.Murphy], RECOVERED by BUF-57-L.Alexander at MIN 15.
Q1 9:30 · Vikings · 3rd & 7 at MIN 10 · gained nothing · -4.46 EP · −8.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 92 yards from the MIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
34%
Yards
584
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.3595%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.1556%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1647%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0130%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4275%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.210%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Bills6Vikings0
Bills7Vikings0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Vikings 10
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Vikings 7 to the Vikings 10
Bills10Vikings0
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 6
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
Bills16Vikings0
Bills17Vikings0
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Bills 46
2nd quarter48 plays
Bills23Vikings0
Bills24Vikings0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 6 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 17
Bills27Vikings0
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Vikings 31
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 20
Punt14 plays, from the Bills 10 to midfield
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 30
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 22 to midfield
Punt4 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Vikings 43
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Vikings 22
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 39
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Vikings 20
4th quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Bills 26
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 39
Bills27Vikings6
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Bills 4
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Vikings 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Bills 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -16.5
Closing total
41
Bills moneyline
+803
Vikings moneyline
-1200
Vikings closed -16.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Bills 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike Zimmer
2nd · 14:16
MIN +7% win prob
(14:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to MIN 16 for 2 yards (55-A.Barr). PENALTY on MIN-55-A.Barr, Horse Collar Tackle, 8 yards, enforced at MIN 16.
1st · 5:15MIN +7% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 80-J.Croom for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
