2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -16.5 upsetU 41 ✓DomeVikings closed -16.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 27–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:16, MIN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:16BUF — MIN BUF ball · 4th & 1BUF 56%

(12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:16MIN +19% win prob(12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:37MIN +14% win prob(:37) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 33-C.Ivory to MIN 6 for 55 yards (34-A.Sendejo, 21-M.Hughes).
Q1 · 7:27BUF +11% win prob(7:27) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q1 · 9:30BUF +10% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 10 for 0 yards (93-T.Murphy). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy) [93-T.Murphy], RECOVERED by BUF-57-L.Alexander at MIN 15.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Vikings
Offensive plays	63	66
Total yards	292	292
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.37
Success rate	38% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	46%	92%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	-0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30 (edge)	-0.54
Third downs	4/13	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	13	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.37.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

40/55, 296 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-21.4 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/22, 196 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.1 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Chris IvoryRB

20 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-7.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

10 att, 39 yds, 2 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

14/19 for 105 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Chris IvoryRB

3/4 for 70 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	11	50	4:59	Touchdown
2	MIN	MIN 7	4	3	0:40	Fumble
3	BUF	MIN 15	4	9	1:57	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	MIN 25	4	0	1:27	Fumble
5	BUF	MIN 25	3	25	0:48	Touchdown
6	MIN	MIN 25	7	19	2:10	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 35	12	69	5:45	Touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 8	5	1	2:12	Punt
9	BUF	MIN 48	8	37	3:46	Turnover on downs
10	MIN	MIN 17	5	3	1:40	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 10	10	55	3:40	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 19	4	20	0:56	End of half
13	MIN	MIN 22	8	9	3:22	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 20	4	0	2:02	Punt
15	MIN	BUF 42	2	0	0:12	Interception
16	BUF	BUF 34	9	23	5:27	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 5	5	17	1:17	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 31	4	8	2:07	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 13	12	61	4:06	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 26	6	12	4:08	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 8	14	83	4:20	Touchdown
22	BUF	BUF 49	5	4	1:06	Punt
23	MIN	MIN 5	7	76	1:53	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 83 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/22	196	1	0	3	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Ivory	20	56	2.8	0	-7.3
Josh Allen	10	39	3.9	2	6.1
Marcus Murphy	8	33	4.1	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Ivory	3	4	70	0	18%	6.0
Kelvin Benjamin	3	5	29	0	23%	0.4
Andre Holmes	3	4	29	0	18%	0.0
Jason Croom	1	1	26	1	5%	3.4
Charles Clay	2	3	18	0	14%	0.8
Zay Jones	1	1	17	0	5%	-0.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	6	0	5%	0.2
Marcus Murphy	1	1	1	0	5%	-1.5
Robert Foster	0	2	0	0	9%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	7	3	0.0	0	1
Micah Hyde	7	1	0.0	0	1
Matt Milano	4	4	1.0	1	2
Rafael Bush	7	0	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	4	2	0.0	0	1
Tre'Davious White	4	0	0.0	0	1
Jordan Poyer	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ryan Lewis	2	0	0.0	0	1
Trent Murphy	2	0	1.0	0	1
Deon Lacey	1	0	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	40/55	296	1	1	4	-21.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mike Boone	2	11	5.5	0.4
Kirk Cousins	2	2	1.0	-2.2
Latavius Murray	2	1	0.5	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	14	19	105	0	35%	0.1
Kyle Rudolph	5	6	48	1	11%	2.9
C.J. Ham	5	6	47	0	11%	-2.2
Laquon Treadwell	4	4	33	0	7%	3.0
Latavius Murray	5	7	30	0	13%	-5.7
Stefon Diggs	4	10	17	0	18%	-4.7
Aldrick Robinson	1	1	9	0	2%	0.6
Tyler Conklin	1	1	7	0	2%	-0.0
Mike Boone	1	1	0	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	4	3	0.0	0
Stephen Weatherly	5	2	1.0	0
Anthony Barr	4	3	0.0	0
Tashawn Bower	4	2	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	5	0	1.0	0
Linval Joseph	2	3	0.0	0
Harrison Smith	4	1	1.0	0
Mike Hughes	1	3	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	2	2	0.0	1
Mackensie Alexander	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -16.5
Closing total: 41
BUF moneyline: +803
MIN moneyline: -1200

Vikings closed -16.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike Zimmer