For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Chicago Bears 16, Cardinals 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:16, 4th and 5, on Bryce Callahan — 23.5 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 4th and 5
Bryce Callahan
Bears
(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Dome
Bears closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Chicago Bears 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Bears +23.5% win probability on one snap.
23.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sam BradfordBearsQ4 11:33(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford sacked at CHI 21 for 0 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by CHI-59-D.Trevathan at CHI 16. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 16 for no gain (64-M.Cole).
17.2pts
Josh RosenBearsQ4 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 39 for -7 yards (27-S.McManis).
18.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 2 giveaways, against Cardinals at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Bears153 of 168 plays carry both curves
(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Swing −23.5 for CardinalsExpected points −1.76 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 7 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:16CHI +24% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
4th · 0:05CHI +18% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 39 for -7 yards (27-S.McManis).
4th · 11:33CHI +17% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford sacked at CHI 21 for 0 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by CHI-59-D.Trevathan at CHI 16. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 16 for no gain (64-M.Cole).
4th · 12:54ARI +14% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at CHI 23 for 32 yards (39-E.Jackson).
2nd · 1:06CHI +11% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left intended for 30-B.Cunningham INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Boston (55-C.Jones) at CHI 34. 33-T.Boston to CHI 34 for no gain (30-B.Cunningham).
1st · 12:20ARI +11% win prob(12:20) 9-S.Bradford pass deep left to 86-R.Seals-Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Hicks].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cody Parkey's 43-yard field goal with 4:34 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:20Ricky Seals-Jones·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Bradfordfrom Sam Bradford+70–7
1st1:46David Johnson·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Bradfordfrom Sam Bradford+70–14
2nd1:57Cody Parkey·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–14
3rd0:49Cody Parkey·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+313–14
4th4:34Cody Parkey·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+316–14
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryCardinals
Bears7–1Cardinals
316Total yards221
4.6Yards per play4.6
42%Success rate29%
36%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays5
18First downs11
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers4
The read
Bears ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.23Cardinals: −0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Bears: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.15Cardinals: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Bears: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.37Cardinals: −0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 69 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 48 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Cardinals 2.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
off script — got home · +14.3 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.47× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cardinals12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 14.3 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 2.5 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 8 never used
65Cody WhitehairC · Every snap100%74 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%74 snaps
75Kyle LongOG · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%74 snaps
64Eric KushOG · Every snap100%74 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time93%69 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Full-time85%63 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Heavy rotation74%55 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation62%46 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Rotational49%36 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Rotational41%30 snaps
88Dion SimsTE · Rotational38%28 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Situational24%18 snaps
11Kevin WhiteWR · Situational16%12 snaps
30Benny CunninghamRB · Situational8%6 snaps
84Ben BrauneckerTE · Situational7%5 snaps
79Bradley SowellT · Situational1%1 snap
46Michael BurtonFB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Marcus CooperCBNick WilliamsDTDeAndre Houston-CarsonFSIsaiah IrvingLBKylie FittsLBRashaad CowardOTChase DanielQBJavon WimsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Rosen pass−30% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Q4 1:16 · Cardinals · 4th & 5 at CHI 45 · gained nothing · -1.76 EP · −30.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 75 yards from the ARI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
33%
Yards
537
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1354%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2176%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.4064%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2725%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.9750%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.8833%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Bears0Cardinals6
Bears0Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bears 35
No good13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Cardinals 13
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 41
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 27
Bears0Cardinals13
Bears0Cardinals14
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 42
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Cardinals 47
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 33
Bears3Cardinals14
Field goal17 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Cardinals 2
Punt6 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 44
The period ended1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 29
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 29
Bears9Cardinals14
Bears10Cardinals14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Cardinals 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 39
Bears13Cardinals14
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Cardinals 22
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Bears 21
Bears16Cardinals14
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Cardinals 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bears 42
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -6
Closing total
39
Bears moneyline
-252
Cardinals moneyline
+224
Bears closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39; the game landed 30 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Bears 6 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Steve Wilks
1st · 1:53CHI +11% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 19 for -8 yards (90-R.Nkemdiche). FUMBLES (90-R.Nkemdiche), RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at CHI 21. 98-C.Peters to CHI 21 for no gain (72-C.Leno Jr).
4th · 2:00CHI +11% win prob(2:00) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle to CHI 45 for -3 yards (98-B.Nichols).
Bearscategory by categoryCardinals
Bears0
Cardinals6
