2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

CHI -6 no coverU 39 ✓DomeBears closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Chicago Bears 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, CHI +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:16CHI — ARI ARI ball · 4th & 5CHI 68%

(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:16CHI +24% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Q4 · 0:05CHI +18% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 39 for -7 yards (27-S.McManis).
Q4 · 11:33CHI +17% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford sacked at CHI 21 for 0 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by CHI-59-D.Trevathan at CHI 16. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 16 for no gain (64-M.Cole).
Q4 · 12:54ARI +14% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at CHI 23 for 32 yards (39-E.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Cardinals
Offensive plays	69	48
Total yards	316 (edge)	221
Yards per play	4.6	4.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.23
Success rate	42% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	58%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.37
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

24/35, 220 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.2 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Sam BradfordQB

13/19, 157 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-4.1 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

24 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Tarik CohenRB

5 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

7/8 for 90 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Trey BurtonTE

4/5 for 55 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	7	75	2:48	Touchdown
2	CHI	CHI 25	13	47	7:17	Turnover on downs
3	ARI	ARI 36	4	5	1:43	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 10	4	11	1:26	Fumble
5	ARI	CHI 21	2	21	0:06	Touchdown
6	CHI	CHI 25	10	41	4:28	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 20	7	18	4:51	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 27	11	68	5:27	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	5	-13	0:29	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 37	2	7	0:25	Interception
11	ARI	CHI 34	4	-5	0:29	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 20	1	4	0:31	End of half
13	CHI	CHI 25	5	-1	2:04	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 15	4	13	2:10	Interception
15	CHI	CHI 33	10	67	4:30	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	6	14	2:38	Interception
17	CHI	ARI 44	7	21	2:54	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 25	8	54	4:21	Fumble
19	CHI	CHI 16	13	44	6:52	Turnover on downs
20	ARI	ARI 25	9	25	3:21	Interception
21	CHI	CHI 32	4	7	0:27	Punt
22	ARI	ARI 20	3	14	0:43	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	24/35	220	0	1	3	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	24	61	2.5	1	-5.3
Tarik Cohen	5	53	10.6	0	4.5
Mitchell Trubisky	2	8	4.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Trey Burton	4	5	55	14%	2.3
Allen Robinson	3	7	50	20%	1.6
Anthony Miller	4	5	35	14%	3.0
Taylor Gabriel	6	10	34	29%	-1.1
Jordan Howard	2	2	20	6%	2.9
Tarik Cohen	3	3	15	9%	-0.9
Benny Cunningham	1	2	9	6%	-1.7
Josh Bellamy	1	1	2	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Khalil Mack	5	0	2.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	4	1	0.0	0	0
Roquan Smith	4	0	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	2	2	0.0	0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	1	1.0	0	0
Eddie Goldman	2	2	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	2	1	0.0	1	1
Kevin Toliver	3	0	0.0	0	0
Sherrick McManis	2	0	1.0	1	1
Prince Amukamara	1	1	0.0	0	1

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Bradford	13/19	157	2	2	3	-4.1
Josh Rosen	4/7	36	0	1	1	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	12	31	2.6	-3.7
Josh Rosen	1	12	12.0	0.1
Chase Edmonds	5	10	2.0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	7	8	90	0	32%	4.5
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	3	35	1	12%	0.9
David Johnson	4	4	30	1	16%	1.8
Derrick Coleman	1	1	12	0	4%	0.8
Jermaine Gresham	1	2	9	0	8%	0.7
Larry Fitzgerald	2	2	9	0	8%	-0.1
Chad Williams	1	4	8	0	16%	-3.8
J.J. Nelson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Budda Baker	8	2	0.5	0	0
Josh Bynes	7	3	0.0	0	0
Gerald Hodges	5	2	0.0	0	0
Tre Boston	5	2	0.0	1	2
Benson Mayowa	5	0	0.0	0	0
Antoine Bethea	4	1	0.0	0	1
Chandler Jones	2	2	1.0	0	1
Jamar Taylor	4	0	0.0	0	0
Bene' Benwikere	2	1	0.5	0	1
Patrick Peterson	3	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -6
Closing total: 39
CHI moneyline: -252
ARI moneyline: +224

Bears closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39; the game landed 30 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CHI 6 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Steve Wilks