2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Carolina PanthersWinner

CAR -2.5 ✓O 44 ✓Panthers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Carolina Panthers 31–21. Biggest swing: Q4 8:36, CAR +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:36CIN — CAR CIN ball · 2nd & 14CAR 88%

(8:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 25 for 49 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:36CAR +14% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 25 for 49 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
Q1 · 5:22CAR +12% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CIN 6 for 45 yards (30-J.Bates).
Q2 · 9:57CAR +9% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 26 for 23 yards (26-D.Jackson).
Q3 · 3:03CAR +8% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Panthers
Offensive plays	60	65
Total yards	396 (edge)	378
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	0.08	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	78%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	5	0 (edge)

Bengals outgained Panthers 396–378 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

29/46, 352 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT

3.4 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

15/24, 150 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.1 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

28 att, 184 yds, 0 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Giovani BernardRB

12 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

6/7 for 132 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler EifertTE

6/8 for 74 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	5	8	1:17	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 25	12	73	6:03	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	11	75	4:38	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 25	5	24	1:07	Interception
5	CAR	CAR 33	10	67	4:52	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	14	75	5:04	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 25	9	75	4:12	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	8	25	1:38	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 2	3	4	1:09	End of half
10	CIN	CIN 25	6	17	2:10	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 24	6	31	2:13	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 11	2	18	1:10	Interception
13	CAR	CIN 26	7	20	3:53	Touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 25	7	75	2:41	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 25	8	19	2:56	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	CIN 41	4	3	1:32	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 10	7	26	3:30	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 14	7	61	2:41	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 43	6	25	2:53	Punt
20	CIN	CIN 17	2	-10	0:48	Interception
21	CAR	50	7	28	2:22	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 25	7	35	1:11	Interception

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	29/46	352	2	4	2	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Giovani Bernard	12	61	5.1	1	1.3
Tyler Boyd	1	5	5.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	6	7	132	1	16%	11.0
Tyler Eifert	6	8	74	0	18%	4.3
A.J. Green	5	8	58	0	18%	2.0
Giovani Bernard	5	9	25	0	20%	-4.0
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	19	1	4%	2.3
John Ross	3	7	16	0	16%	-3.7
Tyler Kroft	1	1	16	0	2%	1.0
Josh Malone	1	3	12	0	7%	-5.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Vigil	9	3	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	4	4	0.0	0
Hardy Nickerson	4	3	0.0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	5	2	0.0	0
Carlos Dunlap	4	2	1.0	1
Shawn Williams	2	3	0.0	0
Darqueze Dennard	3	2	0.0	0
Jordan Evans	1	2	0.0	0
John Ross	2	0	0.0	0
Sam Hubbard	2	0	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	15/24	150	2	0	1	4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	28	184	6.6	0	3.9
Cam Newton	10	36	3.6	2	0.3
C.J. Anderson	2	9	4.5	0	-0.0
Alex Armah	1	1	1.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Devin Funchess	4	7	67	1	29%	4.4
C.J. Anderson	1	1	24	1	4%	3.6
Ian Thomas	3	5	20	0	21%	-1.8
Torrey Smith	3	6	19	0	25%	-1.3
Christian McCaffrey	2	2	10	0	8%	-0.6
Jarius Wright	1	1	7	0	4%	1.6
D.J. Moore	1	2	3	0	8%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	7	1	0.0	0	0
Colin Jones	4	4	0.0	0	0
Donte Jackson	7	0	0.0	2	2
Luke Kuechly	3	2	0.0	1	1
James Bradberry	3	1	0.0	0	3
Mike Adams	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kawann Short	2	1	0.0	0	0
Efe Obada	1	0	1.0	1	1
Bryan Cox	1	0	0.0	0	0
Mario Addison	1	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -2.5
Closing total: 44
CIN moneyline: +128
CAR moneyline: -142

Panthers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 44; the game landed 52 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: CIN 10 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs Ron Rivera