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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati21
BY 10final margin
PanthersCarolina31
Cincinnati Bengals 21 at Carolina Panthers 31. Final.
Panthers -2.5 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
Carolina Panthers 31, Bengals 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:36, 2nd and 14, on Tyler Boyd — 13.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:36 · 2nd and 14
Tyler Boyd
Bengals
(8:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 25 for 49 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
Panthers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Carolina Panthers 31–21. Biggest swing: Q4 8:36, Bengals +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian McCaffreyPanthersQ1 5:22(5:22) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CIN 6 for 45 yards (30-J.Bates).
11.6pts
Tyler BoydBengalsQ2 9:57(9:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 26 for 23 yards (26-D.Jackson).
8.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 5 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bengals at 9 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Bengals at 4 of 10 on third down.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Bengals160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(8:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 25 for 49 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
Swing −13.8 for PanthersExpected points −3.85 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 138
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:36CAR +14% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 25 for 49 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
1st · 5:22CAR +12% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CIN 6 for 45 yards (30-J.Bates).
2nd · 9:57CAR +9% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 26 for 23 yards (26-D.Jackson).
3rd · 3:03CAR +8% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:35CIN +7% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 80-J.Malone INTERCEPTED by 94-E.Obada (24-J.Bradberry) at CIN 26. 94-E.Obada to CIN 26 for no gain (68-B.Hart).
2nd · 7:46CAR +6% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 15-J.Ross to CAR 1 for 9 yards (26-D.Jackson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.J. Anderson's 24-yard touchdown catch with 2:56 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd3:03Tyler Boyd·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+721–28
4th1:16Graham Gano·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+321–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryPanthers
Bengals4–5Panthers
396Total yards378
6.6Yards per play5.8
48%Success rate48%
40%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays11
24First downs21
2Sacks taken1
5Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.14Panthers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.12Panthers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 60 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Panthers’s 65 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Panthers 4.
NoteBengals outgained Panthers 396-378 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected, −12.5 pts, sat 13.6 points below their season number of +1.1 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 2.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers8.5%
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 30.8%, 27.7 points below their season mean of 58.5% and 2.2 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 9 never used
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%65 snaps
65Clint BolingG · Every snap100%65 snaps
62Alex RedmondG · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Cordy GlennOT · Every snap100%65 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Full-time88%57 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
85Tyler EifertTE · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
15John RossWR · Rotational48%31 snaps
80Josh MaloneWR · Rotational45%29 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational32%21 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Situational11%7 snaps
32Mark WaltonHB · Situational11%7 snaps
16Cody CoreWR · Situational9%6 snaps
94Sam HubbardDE · Situational5%3 snaps
74Jake FisherOT · Situational5%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Billy PriceCDarius PhillipsCBMichael JohnsonDEJoe MixonHBPreston BrownMLBCedric OgbuehiOTJeff DriskelQBThomas RawlsRBAuden TateWR
Carolina Panthers
53 dressed · 9 never used
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%67 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%67 snaps
74Chris ClarkOT · Every snap100%67 snaps
69Tyler LarsenC · Every snap100%67 snaps
1Cam NewtonQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Every snap100%67 snaps
67Ryan KalilC · Every snap100%67 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
17Devin FunchessWR · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
11Torrey SmithWR · Heavy rotation66%44 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Heavy rotation58%39 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Rotational49%33 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Rotational39%26 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
20C.J. AndersonRB · Situational4%3 snaps
65Amini SilatoluT · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Lorenzo DossCBTrai TurnerGMarquis HaynesLBAndre SmithLBTaylor HeinickeQBCorey RobinsonTGreg OlsenTECurtis SamuelWRDamiere ByrdWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CAR 25 for 49 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
Q4 8:36 · Bengals · 2nd & 14 at CIN 26 · gained 49 · +3.85 EP · +16.1% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
773
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1389%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0551%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.8664%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2333%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.040%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4243%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2150%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 33
Bengals6Panthers0
Bengals7Panthers0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Panthers 1
Bengals7Panthers6
Bengals7Panthers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Bengals 2
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Panthers 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 44
2nd quarter42 plays
Bengals7Panthers13
Bengals7Panthers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the Bengals 4
Bengals13Panthers14
Bengals14Panthers14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Panthers 1
Bengals14Panthers20
Bengals14Panthers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Bengals 24
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Panthers 6
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Panthers 46
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Bengals 45
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Bengals 24
Bengals14Panthers27
Bengals14Panthers28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 5
Bengals20Panthers28
Bengals21Panthers28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Panthers 27
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Bengals 40
4th quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Bengals 44
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.5 seconds
No good8 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Panthers 25
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Bengals 38
Intercepted2 plays
Bengals21Panthers31
Field goal11 plays, from midfield to the Bengals 22
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Panthers 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
