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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 24, Cowboys 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 3rd and 9, on Tyler Lockett — 14.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 3rd and 9
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Seattle Seahawks 24–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Seahawks +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Earl ThomasSeahawksQ1 5:37(5:37) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Gallup (37-T.Flowers). Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas (37-T.Flowers) at SEA 49. 29-E.Thomas, dead ball declared at SEA 49 for no gain.
8.2pts
Chris CarsonSeahawksQ2 9:51(9:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson pushed ob at DAL 16 for 19 yards (38-J.Heath).
8.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 4 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Cowboys at 3 of 13 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cowboys165 of 179 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.7 for SeahawksExpected points +6.74 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 3 points higher than the market did.play 76
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00SEA +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:51SEA +8% win prob(9:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson pushed ob at DAL 16 for 19 yards (38-J.Heath).
1st · 5:37DAL +8% win prob(5:37) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Gallup (37-T.Flowers). Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas (37-T.Flowers) at SEA 49. 29-E.Thomas, dead ball declared at SEA 49 for no gain.
1st · 2:58SEA +8% win prob(2:58) 6-C.Jones punts 62 yards to SEA 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-18-J.Brown, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 15 - No Play.
2nd · 10:57SEA +8% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-N.Vannett to DAL 35 for 12 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
2nd · 8:02SEA +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaron Brown's 16-yard touchdown catch with 9:33 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd9:33Jaron Brown·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+70–7
2nd5:30Brett Maher·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–7
2nd2:00Tyler Lockett·52-yd TD catch52-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–14
2nd0:04Sebastian Janikowski·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–17
3rd3:48Brett Maher·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+36–17
4th7:15Tavon Austin·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+713–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categorySeahawks
Cowboys4–4Seahawks
303Total yards296
5.2Yards per play4.5
36%Success rate33%
23%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays4
16First downs16
5Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Cowboys: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Cowboys: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.29Seahawks: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Cowboys: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.18Seahawks: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 58 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 66 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Seahawks 3.
NoteCowboys outgained Seahawks 303-296 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 30.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 2.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
SEA's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.1% in week 2 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 10 pts
leaned — got home · +5.8 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Seahawks25.0%
inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.4%, 5.8 points above their season mean of 15.6% and 1.5 times their own 3.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:37) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Gallup (37-T.Flowers). Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas (37-T.Flowers) at SEA 49. 29-E.Thomas, dead ball declared at SEA 49 for no gain.
Q1 5:37 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 40 · gained nothing · -4.57 EP · −11.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
37%
Yards
598
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0945%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2677%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2260%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cowboys 43
Punt13 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Cowboys 49
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 40
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Cowboys 45
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 21
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 35
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 21
Cowboys0Seahawks6
Cowboys0Seahawks7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Cowboys 16
Cowboys3Seahawks7
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Seahawks 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cowboys3Seahawks13
Cowboys3Seahawks14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 48
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 26
Cowboys3Seahawks17
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Cowboys 29
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 20
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Cowboys 16
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 41
Cowboys6Seahawks17
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Seahawks 17
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Cowboys 23
4th quarter55 plays
Cowboys6Seahawks23
Cowboys6Seahawks24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 5
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Seahawks 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 19
Cowboys12Seahawks24
Cowboys13Seahawks24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Seahawks 3
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
Intercepted8 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Seahawks 19
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Seahawks 19
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -1
Closing total
40
Cowboys moneyline
+106
Seahawks moneyline
-117
Seahawks closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 40; the game landed 37 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 60°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Seahawks 6 days
Coaches
Jason Garrett vs Pete Carroll
(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 11-C.Beasley ran ob at SEA 39 for 18 yards (33-T.Thompson).
4th · 3:17DAL +7% win prob(3:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 89-B.Jarwin INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas (54-B.Wagner) at SEA 15. 29-E.Thomas to SEA 15 for no gain (89-B.Jarwin). PENALTY on SEA-29-E.Thomas, Taunting, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 15.
2nd · 9:33SEA +7% win prob(9:33) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-J.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
