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Baltimore Ravens 27, Broncos 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:11, 1st and 10, on Emmanuel Sanders — 10.3 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:11 · 1st and 10
Emmanuel Sanders
Broncos
(7:11) 10-E.Sanders left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around play.
Ravens closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Baltimore Ravens 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 7:11, Broncos +10.3% win probability on one snap.
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin TuckerBroncosQ2 4:45(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (31-J.Simmons), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, RECOVERED by DEN-25-C.Harris at DEN 42. 25-C.Harris for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DEN-94-D.Peko, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.
9.2pts
Case KeenumRavensQ2 2:31(2:31) 4-C.Keenum sacked at BAL 35 for -10 yards (55-T.Suggs). FUMBLES (55-T.Suggs) [55-T.Suggs], recovered by DEN-66-J.Veldheer at BAL 37. 66-J.Veldheer to BAL 37 for no gain (55-T.Suggs). PENALTY on DEN-30-P.Lindsay, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 37.
9.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Ravens at 4 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Broncos174 of 186 plays carry both curves
(7:11) 10-E.Sanders left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around play.
Swing −10.3 for RavensExpected points −3.47 for RavensThe model had Broncos 16 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:11BAL +10% win prob(7:11) 10-E.Sanders left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around play.
2nd · 2:31DEN +10% win prob(2:31) 4-C.Keenum sacked at BAL 35 for -10 yards (55-T.Suggs). FUMBLES (55-T.Suggs) [55-T.Suggs], recovered by DEN-66-J.Veldheer at BAL 37. 66-J.Veldheer to BAL 37 for no gain (55-T.Suggs). PENALTY on DEN-30-P.Lindsay, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 37.
2nd · 4:45DEN +9% win prob(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (31-J.Simmons), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, RECOVERED by DEN-25-C.Harris at DEN 42. 25-C.Harris for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DEN-94-D.Peko, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.
2nd · 11:01BAL +8% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree pushed ob at DEN 32 for 19 yards (29-B.Roby).
2nd · 8:30BAL +8% win prob(8:30) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen to DEN 01 for 11 yards (58-V.Miller). Baltimore challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Javorius Allen's 12-yard touchdown catch with 8:30 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.06Ravens: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Broncos: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Broncos: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.09Ravens: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 61 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Ravens’s 66 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Ravens 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Ravens21.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DEN's sack or hit rate, 7.3% against a season mean of 14.4% — and DEN swings 7.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
53 dressed · 8 never used
60Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%68 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%68 snaps
66Jared VeldheerT · Every snap100%68 snaps
65Ronald LearyG · Every snap100%68 snaps
4Case KeenumQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
10Emmanuel SandersWR · Full-time88%60 snaps
88Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
82Jeff HeuermanTE · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
80Jake ButtTE · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Rotational43%29 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Rotational38%26 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Situational22%15 snaps
32Andy JanovichRB · Situational19%13 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Situational16%11 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Situational3%2 snaps
83Matt LaCosseTE · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Adam JonesCBDymonte ThomasDBDeMarcus WalkerDESam JonesGA.J. JohnsonMLBChad KellyQBKevin HoganQBElijah WilkinsonT
Baltimore Ravens
53 dressed · 7 never used
72Alex LewisG · Every snap100%72 snaps
74James HurstG · Every snap100%72 snaps
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%72 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%72 snaps
5Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
13John BrownWR · Heavy rotation76%55 snaps
15Michael CrabtreeWR · Heavy rotation72%52 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
37Javorius AllenRB · Heavy rotation54%39 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
34Alex CollinsRB · Rotational49%35 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational38%27 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Rotational31%22 snaps
42Patrick RicardDL · Situational18%13 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Anthony AverettCBMichael PierceDTWillie HenryDTC.J. MosleyILBRobert Griffin IIIQBHayden HurstTEJordan LasleyWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:31) 4-C.Keenum sacked at BAL 35 for -10 yards (55-T.Suggs). FUMBLES (55-T.Suggs) [55-T.Suggs], recovered by DEN-66-J.Veldheer at BAL 37. 66-J.Veldheer to BAL 37 for no gain (55-T.Suggs). PENALTY on DEN-30-P.Lindsay, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 37.
Q2 2:31 · Broncos · 2nd & 1 at BAL 25 · lost 12 · -3.04 EP · −16.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 82 yards from the BAL 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
635
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1975%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.3185%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2156%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.040%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3433%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2320%
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.22100%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 19
Broncos6Ravens0
Broncos7Ravens0
Touchdown2 plays
Broncos7Ravens6
Broncos7Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 1
Broncos13Ravens7
Broncos14Ravens7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Ravens 35
Broncos14Ravens10
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Broncos 34
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Ravens 26
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Ravens 44
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Broncos14Ravens16
Broncos14Ravens17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Broncos 12
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
No good6 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Broncos 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Ravens 25
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 40
Punt6 plays
Broncos14Ravens20
Field goal5 plays, from midfield to the Broncos 34
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 34
Broncos14Ravens26
Broncos14Ravens27
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Broncos 1
Punt14 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Ravens 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Ravens 14
4th quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 22
Intercepted11 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Ravens 5
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 36
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Ravens 6
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
