2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium

Denver Broncos

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -5.5 ✓U 46 ✓Ravens closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Baltimore Ravens 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 7:11, BAL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:11DEN — BAL DEN ball · 1st & 10BAL 56%

(7:11) 10-E.Sanders left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:11BAL +10% win prob(7:11) 10-E.Sanders left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around play.
Q2 · 2:31DEN +10% win prob(2:31) 4-C.Keenum sacked at BAL 35 for -10 yards (55-T.Suggs). FUMBLES (55-T.Suggs) [55-T.Suggs], recovered by DEN-66-J.Veldheer at BAL 37. 66-J.Veldheer to BAL 37 for no gain (55-T.Suggs). PENALTY on DEN-30-P.Lindsay, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 37.
Q2 · 4:45DEN +9% win prob(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (31-J.Simmons), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, RECOVERED by DEN-25-C.Harris at DEN 42. 25-C.Harris for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DEN-94-D.Peko, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.
Q2 · 11:01BAL +8% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree pushed ob at DEN 32 for 19 yards (29-B.Roby).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Ravens
Offensive plays	61	66
Total yards	293	345 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	43% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	61%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	6/14	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	16	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

25/40, 277 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.9 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

22/34, 192 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.1 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

18 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Royce FreemanRB

13 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

John BrownWR

5/9 for 86 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Demaryius ThomasWR

5/5 for 63 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 16	5	-3	1:27	Punt
2	DEN	BAL 6	2	6	0:04	Touchdown
3	BAL	DEN 48	7	48	2:32	Touchdown
4	DEN	DEN 30	10	65	3:55	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 26	9	40	3:24	Turnover on downs
6	DEN	DEN 21	6	17	2:55	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 24	6	20	2:01	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 8	4	3	1:27	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 48	10	52	3:49	Touchdown
10	DEN	DEN 25	5	9	1:26	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 28	5	52	2:28	Turnover on downs
12	DEN	BAL 49	6	12	2:45	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 14	6	15	0:56	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 15	4	0	0:25	Punt
15	BAL	50	4	16	0:26	Turnover on downs
16	DEN	DEN 23	6	11	1:15	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 18	15	77	6:19	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 25	11	63	6:04	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 5	7	17	2:16	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 45	10	50	5:05	Defensive touchdown
21	BAL	BAL 34	4	-3	1:39	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 30	11	57	4:25	Turnover on downs
23	BAL	BAL 11	6	14	2:57	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 77 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	22/34	192	0	1	3	-7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Royce Freeman	13	53	4.1	1	-0.7
Emmanuel Sanders	1	35	35.0	1	3.5
Phillip Lindsay	4	20	5.0	0	-0.1
Devontae Booker	5	10	2.0	0	-1.3
Andy Janovich	1	2	2.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Demaryius Thomas	5	5	63	15%	5.5
Emmanuel Sanders	5	8	38	24%	-1.8
Courtland Sutton	2	3	37	9%	4.8
Devontae Booker	5	7	34	21%	2.5
Jake Butt	2	4	8	12%	-4.5
Jeff Heuerman	2	4	7	12%	-7.3
Royce Freeman	1	1	5	3%	0.4
Phillip Lindsay	0	2	0	6%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Josey Jewell	5	3	1
Todd Davis	4	4	0
Darian Stewart	5	3	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	1	0
Justin Simmons	4	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	3	1	0
Chris Harris	3	0	1
Derek Wolfe	2	1	2
Bradley Roby	2	0	0
Will Parks	1	1	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	25/40	277	1	0	2	6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	18	68	3.8	1	-1.1
Javorius Allen	6	7	1.2	1	-1.1
Joe Flacco	4	2	0.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
John Brown	5	9	86	0	24%	2.3
Michael Crabtree	7	10	61	0	26%	-0.5
Mark Andrews	2	3	59	0	8%	4.9
Willie Snead	3	5	39	0	13%	2.7
Javorius Allen	3	4	19	1	11%	2.6
Alex Collins	3	4	6	0	11%	-2.0
Maxx Williams	1	1	5	0	3%	0.5
Nick Boyle	1	1	2	0	3%	0.1
Lamar Jackson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kenny Young	8	2	0.0	0	0
Brandon Carr	5	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Weddle	4	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Levine	5	0	0.0	0	0
Tony Jefferson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Terrell Suggs	3	1	1.5	0	0
Patrick Onwuasor	2	1	0.0	1	1
Tavon Young	2	1	0.0	0	0
Brent Urban	1	1	0.0	0	1
Za'Darius Smith	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -5.5
Closing total: 46
DEN moneyline: +201
BAL moneyline: -225

Ravens closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 46; the game landed 41 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: DEN 7 days · BAL 10 days
Coaches: Vance Joseph vs John Harbaugh