For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Packers164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(13:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.8 for CommandersExpected points +3.68 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 14 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:02WAS +11% win prob(13:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:24WAS +9% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00WAS +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 85-V.Davis pushed ob at GB 21 for 50 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
2nd · 7:13WAS +8% win prob(7:13) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 86-J.Reed to WAS 40 for 34 yards (50-B.Martinez, 38-T.Williams).
4th · 5:32GB +8% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to GB 47 for 1 yard (31-F.Moreau). FUMBLES (31-F.Moreau), RECOVERED by WAS-24-J.Norman at GB 46. 24-J.Norman to GB 46 for no gain (18-R.Cobb). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 11:26GB +6% win prob(11:26) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 86-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at GB 44. 21-H.Clinton-Dix ran ob at GB 45 for 1 yard.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Paul Richardson's 46-yard touchdown catch with 13:02 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:02Paul Richardson·46-yd TD catch46-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex SmithLead never changed again+70–7
4th2:00Dustin Hopkins·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+317–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryCommanders
Packers3–5Commanders
340Total yards388
5.2Yards per play7.3
42%Success rate40%
47%Third-down rate45%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
19First downs16
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Packers: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.13Commanders: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Packers: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.30Commanders: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Packers: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 66 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Commanders’s 53 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Commanders 6.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.4% in week 2 against 35.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.3 pts in week 2 against +2.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Commanders14.0%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.7%, 19.3 points below their season mean of 55.0% and 1.5 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Smith pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:02 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at GB 46 · gained 46 · +3.68 EP · +11.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 98 yards from the WAS 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
726
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1276%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1246%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0438%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.2220%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2850%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Packers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Packers0Commanders6
Packers0Commanders7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Packers 46
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 23
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Packers 30
Packers0Commanders13
Packers0Commanders14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Packers 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Commanders 28
2nd quarter49 plays
Packers3Commanders14
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 17
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 43
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Commanders 41
Packers3Commanders20
Packers3Commanders21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 2 to the Packers 9
Packers9Commanders21
Packers10Commanders21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 36
Packers10Commanders27
Packers10Commanders28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Packers 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Commanders 43
3rd quarter37 plays
Packers16Commanders28
Packers17Commanders28
Touchdown18 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Commanders 2
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 22
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Commanders 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Packers 39
4th quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Packers 45
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 39
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 16
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Packers 46
Packers17Commanders31
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Packers 17
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
