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2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · FedExField

Green Bay Packers

17

Washington CommandersWinner

31

GB -2.5 upsetO 46.5 ✓

Washington Commanders 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 13:02, WAS +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑GB ↓
Q1 · 13:02GB — WAS WAS ball · 1st & 10GB 55%

(13:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:02WAS +11% win prob(13:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 2:24WAS +9% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 2:00WAS +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 85-V.Davis pushed ob at GB 21 for 50 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
  4. Q2 · 7:13WAS +8% win prob(7:13) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 86-J.Reed to WAS 40 for 34 yards (50-B.Martinez, 38-T.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersCommanders
Offensive plays6653
Total yards340388 (edge)
Yards per play5.27.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.100.13 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)40%
Dropback rate76%45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.170.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.01
Third downs7/15 (edge)5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers11

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

27/44, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-5.3 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

12/20, 220 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.0 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

19 att, 120 yds, 2 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

6 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Geronimo AllisonWR

2/4 for 76 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Jordan ReedTE

4/7 for 65 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 256752:06Touchdown
2GBGB 257112:11Punt
3WASWAS 22410:54Punt
4GBGB 23471:31Punt
5WASWAS 2111576:04Touchdown
6GBGB 2510414:22Turnover on downs
7WASWAS 254181:32Interception
8GBGB 457123:40Punt
9WASWAS 29983:14Touchdown
10GBGB 246762:11Touchdown
11WASWAS 267741:54Touchdown
12GBGB 255320:21End of half
13GBGB 2517757:02Touchdown
14WASWAS 17552:25Punt
15GBGB 325303:01Turnover on downs
16WASWAS 435122:57Punt
17GBGB 165182:07Punt
18WASWAS 354102:17Punt
19GBGB 107362:45Punt
20WASWAS 12441:31Punt
21GBGB 42240:32Fumble
22WASGB 468343:25Turnover on downs
23GBGB 255-21:12Turnover on downs
24WASGB 13200:46End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 98 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers27/44265204-5.3
J.K. Scott0/10000-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones6427.002.4
Jamaal Williams5295.800.7
Ty Montgomery4164.00-1.3
Aaron Rodgers2136.501.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Geronimo Allison247619%6.1
Davante Adams7952120%-0.6
Ty Montgomery6749016%1.0
Jimmy Graham5745016%2.5
Randall Cobb41122024%-10.2
Jamaal Williams231607%0.9
Aaron Jones11502%-0.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling01002%-3.3
Mason Crosby01002%-0.7
Lance Kendricks01002%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Blake Martinez250.001
Kenny Clark430.001
Nick Perry330.000
Jaire Alexander510.000
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix130.011
Kentrell Brice220.000
Antonio Morrison120.000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling200.000
Josh Jackson110.000
Oren Burks110.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Alex Smith12/202202106.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Adrian Peterson191206.322.2
Alex Smith7202.90-2.2
Chris Thompson6172.80-2.4
Jamison Crowder166.000.2
Kapri Bibbs231.50-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Vernon Davis2270010%5.0
Jordan Reed4765035%-0.5
Paul Richardson1246110%2.5
Jamison Crowder4439120%3.9
Chris Thompson120010%-2.1
Josh Doctson030015%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Mason Foster180.000
Josh Norman250.000
Montae Nicholson240.000
Zach Brown230.000
Jonathan Allen322.000
Preston Smith310.000
Fabian Moreau310.000
Josh Harvey-Clemons210.000
Daron Payne211.000
Kenny Ladler110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -2.5
Closing total
46.5
GB moneyline
-135
WAS moneyline
+122

Packers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
62°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
GB 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Jay Gruden