2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

Indianapolis Colts

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -6.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓Eagles closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, IND +45% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:19IND — PHI IND ball · 4th & 3IND 50%

(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:19IND +45% win prob(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
Q4 · 6:24PHI +17% win prob(6:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Matthews [92-M.Hunt]. PENALTY on IND-93-J.Sheard, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 42 - No Play.
Q4 · 2:40PHI +16% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 11-R.Grant to PHI 23 for 22 yards (24-C.Graham).
Q3 · 9:41IND +15% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 50-A.Walker at PHI 28. 50-A.Walker to PHI 17 for 11 yards (61-S.Wisniewski).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Eagles
Offensive plays	56	77
Total yards	209	379 (edge)
Yards per play	3.7	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	32%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	79%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

25/37, 255 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.6 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

25/40, 164 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-12.4 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Wendell SmallwoodRB

10 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Corey ClementRB

16 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

5/10 for 73 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -2.7 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

7/7 for 73 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 30	5	4	2:39	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 21	13	79	5:11	Touchdown
3	IND	IND 7	5	2	1:37	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 29	7	24	3:17	Turnover on downs
5	IND	IND 45	7	22	1:52	Touchdown
6	PHI	PHI 25	7	12	3:12	Punt
7	IND	IND 24	7	35	2:27	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 10	11	97	6:40	Turnover on downs
9	IND	IND 25	7	4	1:25	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 28	5	18	1:40	End of half
11	PHI	PHI 17	5	6	1:44	Punt
12	IND	IND 35	9	48	3:35	Turnover on downs
13	PHI	PHI 25	2	0	0:11	Interception
14	IND	PHI 17	4	14	1:07	Turnover on downs
15	PHI	PHI 19	14	75	5:33	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 25	5	5	1:34	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 19	3	-6	0:56	Fumble
18	IND	PHI 13	4	3	1:00	Turnover on downs
19	PHI	PHI 25	19	65	11:18	Touchdown
20	IND	IND 25	10	37	1:49	Turnover on downs
21	PHI	PHI 20	4	9	0:30	Punt
22	IND	IND 11	7	35	0:43	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 97 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	25/40	164	1	0	2	-12.4
Jacoby Brissett	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Andrew Luck	1	33	33.0	3.3
Jordan Wilkins	6	19	3.2	0.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	18	3.6	-1.0
Marcus Johnson	1	-2	-2.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	5	10	50	0	24%	-1.6
Ryan Grant	3	5	35	1	12%	4.3
Eric Ebron	5	11	33	0	27%	-3.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	5	25	0	12%	-0.7
Chester Rogers	2	4	14	0	10%	-2.0
Erik Swoope	1	1	7	0	2%	-0.5
Zach Pascal	1	2	3	0	5%	-1.4
Jordan Wilkins	2	2	1	0	5%	-1.6
Ryan Kelly	1	1	-4	0	2%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Clayton Geathers	11	2	0.0	0	1
Shaquille Leonard	9	4	2.0	0	1
Anthony Walker	7	2	0.0	1	1
Malik Hooker	6	0	0.0	0	1
Nate Hairston	4	1	0.0	0	1
Jabaal Sheard	2	2	0.5	0	1
Margus Hunt	4	0	1.0	0	0
Pierre Desir	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	2	1	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	1	2	0.0	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	25/37	255	1	1	5	-6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Wendell Smallwood	10	56	5.6	1	3.5
Corey Clement	16	56	3.5	0	-2.3
Josh Adams	6	30	5.0	0	-0.4
Carson Wentz	3	10	3.3	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	5	10	73	0	27%	-2.7
Dallas Goedert	7	7	73	1	19%	5.9
Wendell Smallwood	3	5	35	0	14%	-0.7
Nelson Agholor	4	5	24	0	14%	2.8
Jordan Matthews	2	2	21	0	5%	0.3
Corey Clement	3	4	19	0	11%	-1.4
Joshua Perkins	1	4	10	0	11%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	8	0	0.0	2
Derek Barnett	3	2	1.5	0
Fletcher Cox	2	2	0.5	0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	1	0.0	1
Jalen Mills	4	0	0.0	2
Nigel Bradham	2	0	0.0	0
Brandon Graham	2	0	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	2	0	0.0	0
Sidney Jones	2	0	0.0	1
Corey Graham	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -6.5
Closing total: 45.5
IND moneyline: +243
PHI moneyline: -274

Eagles closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 36 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: IND 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Doug Pederson