For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
ColtsIndianapolis16
BY 4final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia20
Indianapolis Colts 16 at Philadelphia Eagles 20. Final.
Eagles -6.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
Philadelphia Eagles 20, Colts 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:19, 4th and 3, on Andrew Luck — 44.9 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:19 · 4th and 3
Andrew Luck
Eagles
(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
Eagles closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, Eagles +44.9% win probability on one snap.
44.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Carson WentzEaglesQ4 6:24(6:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Matthews [92-M.Hunt]. PENALTY on IND-93-J.Sheard, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 42 - No Play.
17.3pts
Ryan GrantColtsQ4 2:40(2:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 11-R.Grant to PHI 23 for 22 yards (24-C.Graham).
16.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 2 of 12 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Colts177 of 189 plays carry both curves
(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
Swing +44.9 for EaglesExpected points +3.07 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 5 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:19IND +45% win prob(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
4th · 6:24PHI +17% win prob(6:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Matthews [92-M.Hunt]. PENALTY on IND-93-J.Sheard, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 42 - No Play.
4th · 2:40PHI +16% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 11-R.Grant to PHI 23 for 22 yards (24-C.Graham).
3rd · 9:41IND +15% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 50-A.Walker at PHI 28. 50-A.Walker to PHI 17 for 11 yards (61-S.Wisniewski).
4th · 7:50IND +13% win prob(7:50) 11-C.Wentz sacked at IND 49 for -9 yards (53-D.Leonard).
4th · 6:19IND +13% win prob(6:19) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 28-W.Smallwood to IND 45 for -8 yards (92-M.Hunt).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wendell Smallwood's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 3:06 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
1st0:28Ryan Grant·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+77–7
2nd3:09Jake Elliott·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+37–10
3rd9:44Adam Vinatieri·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–10
3rd8:26Adam Vinatieri·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+313–10
3rd2:53Jake Elliott·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+313–13
4th14:22Adam Vinatieri·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–13
4th3:06Wendell Smallwood·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+716–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryEagles
Colts2–7Eagles
209Total yards379
3.7Yards per play4.9
32%Success rate48%
17%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays7
12First downs22
2Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Eagles ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Colts: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.14Eagles: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.02Eagles: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 56 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Eagles’s 77 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 2 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.1 points.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Eagles13.6%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 45.0 points above their season mean of 21.7% and 1.9 times their own 23.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Luck sacked−40% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
Q4 1:19 · Colts · 4th & 3 at PHI 4 · lost 16 · -3.07 EP · −40.1% win probability
175 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 79 yards from the PHI 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
588
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0680%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR28+0.1543%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.1160%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.3164%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5273%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 38
Colts0Eagles6
Colts0Eagles7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Colts 13
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Colts 9
No good8 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Colts 34
Colts6Eagles7
Colts7Eagles7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Eagles 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 42
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Eagles 41
Colts7Eagles10
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Colts 7
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 38
3rd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Eagles 23
Colts10Eagles10
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Eagles 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Colts13Eagles10
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Eagles 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Colts13Eagles13
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Colts 6
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Colts16Eagles13
Field goal2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Colts16Eagles19
Colts16Eagles20
Touchdown23 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Colts 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Eagles 4
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.5 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Colts 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -6.5
Closing total
45.5
Colts moneyline
+243
Eagles moneyline
-274
Eagles closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 36 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north-east; 0.14 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Colts 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Doug Pederson
3rd · 0:27
IND +13% win prob
(:27) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 13 for -6 yards (92-M.Hunt). FUMBLES (92-M.Hunt), touched at PHI 13, RECOVERED by IND-92-M.Hunt at PHI 13. 92-M.Hunt to PHI 13 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
4th · 4:47PHI +12% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor ran ob at IND 26 for 10 yards (29-M.Hooker).
