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2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
ChargersLos Angeles23
BY 12final margin
RamsLos Angeles35
Los Angeles Chargers 23 at Los Angeles Rams 35. Final.
Rams -7.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
Los Angeles Rams 35, Chargers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:50, 2nd and 12, on Mike Williams — 8.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:50 · 2nd and 12
Mike Williams
Chargers
(4:50) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Rams closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Los Angeles Rams 35–23. Biggest swing: Q1 4:50, Chargers +8.1% win probability on one snap.
8.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Robert WoodsRamsQ1 14:36(14:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods to LA 40 for 13 yards (57-J.Brown).
6.9pts
Keenan AllenRamsQ3 13:38(13:38) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LA 46 for 10 yards (21-A.Talib). FUMBLES (21-A.Talib), RECOVERED by LA-20-L.Joyner at LA 45. 20-L.Joyner to LA 45 for no gain (13-K.Allen).
7.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 8 of 11 on third down, against Chargers at 7 of 13 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Chargers at 10 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Chargers157 of 169 plays carry both curves
(4:50) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.1 for RamsExpected points −4.61 for RamsThe model had Chargers 13 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:50LA +8% win prob(4:50) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:38LAC +7% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LA 46 for 10 yards (21-A.Talib). FUMBLES (21-A.Talib), RECOVERED by LA-20-L.Joyner at LA 45. 20-L.Joyner to LA 45 for no gain (13-K.Allen).
1st · 14:36LA +7% win prob(14:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods to LA 40 for 13 yards (57-J.Brown).
1st · 6:39LA +6% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 12-B.Cooks for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 12-B.Cooks to LAC 1 for 16 yards (26-C.Hayward).
2nd · 7:50LAC +6% win prob(7:50) 8-D.Kaser punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-47-M.Windt, RECOVERED by LA-24-B.Countess at LAC -6. TOUCHDOWN. LAC-8-D.Kaser was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 12:15LA +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Todd Gurley's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:19 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:19Todd Gurley·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:50Mike Williams·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · kick no good, wide right+66–7
1st0:55Robert Woods·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+76–14
2nd7:50Blake Countess·return TDreturn touchdownon the kickon the kick+76–21
3rd12:51Cooper Kupp·53-yd TD catch53-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+713–28
3rd8:28Mike Williams·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+720–28
3rd3:24Robert Woods·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+720–35
4th11:54Caleb Sturgis·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Kaser · snap M.Windt+323–35
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryRams
Chargers0–8Rams
356Total yards523
6.8Yards per play7.5
42%Success rate59%
54%Third-down rate73%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays12
17First downs30
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Chargers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.28Rams: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Chargers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.46Rams: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Chargers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.07Rams: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 52 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Rams’s 70 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Rams15.6%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LAC's sack or hit rate, 7.9% against a season mean of 12.9% — and LAC swings 5.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:50) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:50 · Chargers · 2nd & 12 at LA 42 · gained 42 · +4.61 EP · +13.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 80 yards from the LA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
47%
Yards
877
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR70+0.2853%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.1791%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2754%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1943%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.0414%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 29
Chargers0Rams6
Chargers0Rams7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Chargers 1
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Chargers6Rams7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Rams 40
Chargers6Rams13
Chargers6Rams14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chargers 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 26
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Intercepted13 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Chargers 10
Chargers6Rams20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Chargers 4
Chargers6Rams21
Drive ended5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Rams 42
Chargers12Rams21
Chargers13Rams21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Rams 11
No good14 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Chargers 28
3rd quarter41 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
Chargers13Rams27
Chargers13Rams28
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Rams 47
Chargers19Rams28
Chargers20Rams28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Rams 19
Chargers20Rams34
Chargers20Rams35
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Chargers 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Rams 35
4th quarter36 plays
Chargers23Rams35
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Rams 8
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 30
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Rams 19
The period ended13 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -7.5
Closing total
49
Chargers moneyline
+254
Rams moneyline
-288
Rams closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 49; the game landed 58 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 78°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Sean McVay
(12:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to LA 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Natson to LA 20 for 1 yard (42-U.Nwosu).
1st · 13:11LAC +5% win prob(13:11) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley to LAC 29 for 5 yards (92-B.Mebane). FUMBLES (92-B.Mebane), RECOVERED by LAC-20-D.King at LAC 24. 20-D.King to LAC 24 for no gain (77-A.Whitworth).
3rd · 12:51LA +5% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-C.Kupp for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-U.Nwosu].
