2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Ford Field

New England Patriots

Detroit LionsWinner

NE -7 upsetU 55.5 ✓DomePatriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 26–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:10, DET +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:10NE — DET NE ball · 3rd & 8DET 60%

(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:10DET +12% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:53DET +11% win prob(3:53) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:39DET +8% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay ran ob at DET 42 for 16 yards (30-J.McCourty).
Q1 · 2:39DET +7% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson left tackle to NE 36 for 9 yards (51-J.Bentley).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Lions
Offensive plays	47	69
Total yards	209	414 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	60%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

27/36, 262 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

14/26, 133 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

16 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

14 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Golden TateWR

6/8 for 69 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Marvin JonesWR

4/6 for 69 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 42	5	6	1:28	Punt
2	DET	DET 14	12	65	7:37	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 25	5	-1	1:02	Punt
4	DET	DET 40	10	70	5:41	Touchdown
5	NE	NE 25	5	8	1:46	Punt
6	DET	DET 22	14	61	7:28	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 25	12	57	4:18	Turnover on downs
8	DET	DET 25	6	35	0:40	End of half
9	DET	DET 25	4	6	1:26	Interception
10	NE	NE 48	8	47	3:31	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	12	75	6:18	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 29	7	16	1:47	Punt
13	DET	DET 25	8	61	4:14	Turnover on downs
14	NE	NE 21	5	9	1:42	Punt
15	DET	DET 20	4	4	1:44	Punt
16	NE	NE 26	4	17	1:55	Interception
17	DET	DET 19	7	36	2:47	Punt
18	NE	NE 15	4	-2	1:20	Turnover on downs
19	DET	NE 13	4	1	1:20	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 8	6	52	1:56	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	14/26	133	1	1	2	-10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	14	50	3.6	-2.2
James White	4	37	9.3	0.8
Tom Brady	1	2	2.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	4	5	51	0	21%	3.0
Chris Hogan	3	4	31	0	17%	-0.3
Rex Burkhead	2	3	26	0	13%	1.4
James White	3	3	14	1	13%	1.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	12	0	4%	0.5
Phillip Dorsett	0	5	0	0	21%	-8.4
Sony Michel	1	3	-1	0	13%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Duron Harmon	7	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	3	4	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	4	3	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jason McCourty	4	2	0.0	0	0
Dont'a Hightower	3	2	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	2	0.0	1	1
Stephon Gilmore	3	1	0.0	0	0
Danny Shelton	3	1	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	3	1	1.0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	27/36	262	2	1	1	5.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	16	101	6.3	1.4
LeGarrette Blount	16	48	3.0	-2.9
Matthew Stafford	1	10	10.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Golden Tate	6	8	69	0	23%	1.4
Marvin Jones	4	6	69	1	17%	4.4
Kenny Golladay	6	7	53	1	20%	2.8
Theo Riddick	3	3	36	0	9%	2.9
LeGarrette Blount	2	2	17	0	6%	1.2
Luke Willson	2	3	10	0	9%	-3.2
Kerryon Johnson	2	3	9	0	9%	0.7
T.J. Jones	1	2	4	0	6%	-1.5
Nick Bellore	1	1	-5	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jarrad Davis	3	1	0.0	1
Glover Quin	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Jones	3	1	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	1	0.0	0
Eli Harold	3	0	2.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	3	0	0.0	0
Ricky Jean Francois	2	1	0.0	0
Tavon Wilson	1	2	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	2	0	0.0	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7
Closing total: 55.5
NE moneyline: -306
DET moneyline: +269

Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 36 — under by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NE 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Matt Patricia