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New England Patriots 10 at Detroit Lions 26. Final.
Patriots -7 upsetU 55.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
Detroit Lions 26, Patriots 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:10, 3rd and 8, on James White — 11.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:10 · 3rd and 8
James White
Patriots
(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 26–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:10, Patriots +11.8% win probability on one snap.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kenny GolladayLionsQ3 8:39(8:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay ran ob at DET 42 for 16 yards (30-J.McCourty).
8.2pts
Marvin JonesLionsQ3 3:53(3:53) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 3 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Lions won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 9 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.27 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Patriots149 of 159 plays carry both curves
(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.8 for LionsExpected points −3.14 for LionsThe model had Lions 18 points higher than the market did.play 92
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:10DET +12% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:53DET +11% win prob(3:53) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:39DET +8% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay ran ob at DET 42 for 16 yards (30-J.McCourty).
1st · 2:39DET +7% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson left tackle to NE 36 for 9 yards (51-J.Bentley).
2nd · 13:12NE +7% win prob(13:12) 26-S.Michel right end to NE 33 for -1 yards (97-R.Jean Francois).
1st · 6:00NE +7% win prob(6:00) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
3rd · 13:42NE +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 38-yard field goal with 6:00 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:00Matt Prater·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.MuhlbachLead never changed again+30–3
2nd14:17Kenny Golladay·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+70–10
2nd5:02Matt Prater·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+30–13
2nd0:44Stephen Gostkowski·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+33–13
3rd10:10James White·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+710–13
3rd3:53Marvin Jones·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+710–20
4th12:48Matt Prater·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+310–23
4th2:00Matt Prater·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+310–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryLions
Patriots1–6Lions
209Total yards414
4.4Yards per play6.0
47%Success rate46%
22%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays9
11First downs24
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Patriots: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.06Lions: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Patriots: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.05Lions: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 47 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Lions’s 69 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Lions 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Lions21.4%
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 15.3% and 1.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
53 dressed · 8 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%48 snaps
77Trent BrownT · Every snap100%48 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%48 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%48 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Every snap100%48 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%48 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Every snap100%48 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Full-time94%45 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Heavy rotation71%34 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Heavy rotation52%25 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Rotational48%23 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Rotational40%19 snaps
83Dwayne AllenTE · Rotational35%17 snaps
68LaAdrian WaddleT · Rotational29%14 snaps
46James DevelinFB · Situational17%8 snaps
34Rex BurkheadRB · Situational15%7 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Brian SchwenkeCEric RoweCBTrey FlowersDEBrian HoyerQBPatrick ChungSSCole CrostonTJacob HollisterTEJosh GordonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:10 · Patriots · 3rd & 8 at DET 10 · gained 10 · +3.14 EP · +8.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
623
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0055%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.5872%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0843%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.1269%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1236%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.34100%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0120%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 48
Patriots0Lions3
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Patriots 21
Punt5 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Patriots 24
2nd quarter47 plays
Patriots0Lions9
Patriots0Lions10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 4
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Patriots0Lions13
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Patriots 7
Patriots3Lions13
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Lions 16
The period ended10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 49
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
Patriots9Lions13
Patriots10Lions13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Lions 10
Patriots10Lions19
Patriots10Lions20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Patriots 33
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 43
4th quarter43 plays
Patriots10Lions23
Field goal5 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 14
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 23
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 24
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 43
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 45
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 23
Patriots10Lions26
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Patriots 10
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Lions 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -7
Closing total
55.5
Patriots moneyline
-306
Lions moneyline
+269
Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 36 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Matt Patricia
(13:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Willson INTERCEPTED by 51-J.Bentley at NE 48. 51-J.Bentley to NE 48 for no gain (82-L.Willson).
3rd · 12:44NE +7% win prob(12:44) 26-S.Michel up the middle to DET 20 for 3 yards (24-N.Lawson). PENALTY on NE-77-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 23 - No Play.
