2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -1.5 upsetO 54 ✓DomeFalcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 43–37. Biggest swing: Q2 2:23, ATL +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:23NO — ATL ATL ball · 2nd & 10NO 67%

(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:23ATL +24% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:03ATL +18% win prob(10:03) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:50NO +18% win prob(8:50) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 57-A.Okafor, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at ATL 28. 52-C.Robertson to ATL 16 for 12 yards (20-I.Oliver).
Q4 · 9:35ATL +17% win prob(9:35) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to NO 12 for 58 yards (20-K.Crawley).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Falcons
Offensive plays	76	61
Total yards	535 (edge)	412
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	6.8
Expected points added / play	0.31 (edge)	0.24
Success rate	53% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	67%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.42	0.51 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	30 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

39/49, 396 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

26/35, 374 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

21.9 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

16 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

15 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-6.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

7/8 for 146 yds, 3 TD

24% of team targets · 16.5 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

10/10 for 129 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	8	75	3:15	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 25	5	15	1:23	Punt
3	NO	NO 21	4	9	1:31	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 19	13	81	6:06	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 25	9	31	2:57	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 20	5	8	2:50	Punt
7	NO	NO 38	6	41	2:21	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 25	6	18	1:45	Punt
9	NO	NO 27	8	70	4:46	Turnover on downs
10	ATL	ATL 25	4	75	0:54	Touchdown
11	NO	NO 23	6	21	0:36	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 9	4	5	0:56	Punt
13	NO	NO 42	3	31	0:34	Turnover on downs
14	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
15	ATL	ATL 25	8	30	3:00	Touchdown
16	NO	NO 25	6	10	2:00	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 47	4	7	1:24	Punt
18	NO	ATL 16	5	21	2:29	Touchdown
19	ATL	ATL 18	14	89	6:56	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 25	10	65	4:12	Touchdown
21	ATL	ATL 25	7	66	3:01	Touchdown
22	NO	NO 19	13	81	5:43	Touchdown
23	ATL	ATL 26	7	18	0:59	Punt
24	NO	NO 13	1	0	0:16	Turnover on downs
25	NO	NO 20	16	80	7:05	Touchdown

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 89 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	39/49	396	3	0	1	19.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	16	66	4.1	0	-2.3
Taysom Hill	3	39	13.0	0	3.5
Ted Ginn	1	20	20.0	0	1.2
Mike Gillislee	3	10	3.3	0	-0.1
Drew Brees	3	7	2.3	2	2.8
Jonathan Williams	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	10	10	129	0	20%	11.1
Alvin Kamara	15	20	124	0	41%	0.6
Benjamin Watson	5	6	71	0	12%	3.5
Austin Carr	1	2	25	0	4%	0.9
Josh Hill	1	1	17	0	2%	1.1
Ted Ginn	3	6	12	1	12%	0.2
Cameron Meredith	1	1	11	1	2%	2.1
Zach Line	2	2	6	1	4%	2.1
Jonathan Williams	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	6	3	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	5	0	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	5	0	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	4	1	2.0	1
Jay Bromley	3	1	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Ken Crawley	3	0	0.0	0
A.J. Klein	2	1	0.0	1
Sheldon Rankins	2	0	0.0	0
David Onyemata	2	0	0.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	26/35	374	5	0	3	21.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tevin Coleman	15	33	2.2	-6.1
Matt Ryan	4	12	3.0	0.1
Calvin Ridley	1	9	9.0	0.7
Ito Smith	2	-6	-3.0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	7	8	146	3	24%	16.5
Julio Jones	5	6	96	0	18%	4.4
Ito Smith	3	4	41	0	12%	2.4
Mohamed Sanu	4	7	36	1	21%	2.7
Austin Hooper	3	4	23	0	12%	-0.2
Tevin Coleman	2	3	14	1	9%	0.6
Logan Paulsen	1	1	11	0	3%	0.6
Marvin Hall	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Duke Riley	9	4	0
Brian Poole	10	0	1
Damontae Kazee	8	2	0
Ricardo Allen	5	2	0
De'Vondre Campbell	5	1	0
Isaiah Oliver	4	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	4	0	0
Desmond Trufant	3	1	0
Grady Jarrett	2	1	0
Terrell McClain	3	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -1.5
Closing total: 54
NO moneyline: +113
ATL moneyline: -125

Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 80 — over by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: NO 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.