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New Orleans Saints 43 at Atlanta Falcons 37. Final.
Falcons -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
New Orleans Saints 43, Falcons 37 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:23, 2nd and 10, on Calvin Ridley — 24.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:23 · 2nd and 10
Calvin Ridley
Falcons
(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 54 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 43–37. Biggest swing: Q2 2:23, Falcons +24.0% win probability on one snap.
24.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ3 8:50(8:50) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 57-A.Okafor, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at ATL 28. 52-C.Robertson to ATL 16 for 12 yards (20-I.Oliver).
18.3pts
Zach LineSaintsQ4 10:03(10:03) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
18.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 3 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Falcons at 4 of 11 on third down.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Saints188 of 201 plays carry both curves
(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.0 for FalconsExpected points +6.28 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:23ATL +24% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:03ATL +18% win prob(10:03) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:50NO +18% win prob(8:50) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 57-A.Okafor, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at ATL 28. 52-C.Robertson to ATL 16 for 12 yards (20-I.Oliver).
4th · 9:35ATL +17% win prob(9:35) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to NO 12 for 58 yards (20-K.Crawley).
4th · 12:17ATL +17% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard to ATL 20 for 35 yards (34-B.Poole). PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Horse Collar Tackle, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.
3rd · 12:41ATL +16% win prob(12:41) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Ridley. PENALTY on NO-20-K.Crawley, Defensive Pass Interference, 45 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Drew Brees's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:58 left in overtime put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime2:58Drew Brees·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+643–37
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Saints8–0Falcons
535Total yards412
7.0Yards per play6.8
53%Success rate51%
50%Third-down rate36%
5Red-zone touchdowns4
9Explosive plays3
30First downs22
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Saints: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.24Falcons: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.42Saints: +0.42 expected points added per play
+0.51Falcons: +0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Saints: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.41Falcons: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 76 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Falcons’s 61 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Saints 6, Falcons 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.6 pts in week 2 against +6.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Falcons3.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.9%, 7.6 points below their season mean of 11.5% and 1.5 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 8 never used
61Josh LeRibeusG · Every snap100%79 snaps
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%79 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%79 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%79 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%79 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time96%76 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time85%67 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation62%49 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Heavy rotation57%45 snaps
81Cameron MeredithWR · Rotational43%34 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational33%26 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Situational16%13 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational15%12 snaps
32Jonathan WilliamsRB · Situational11%9 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational6%5 snaps
25Mike GillisleeRB · Situational5%4 snaps
74Jermon BushrodT · Situational5%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Will ClappCTrey HendricksonDEMitchell LoewenDETyeler DavisonDTManti Te'oMLBTeddy BridgewaterQBAndrus PeatTDan ArnoldTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Ryan pass+24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:23 · Falcons · 2nd & 10 at ATL 25 · gained 75 · +6.28 EP · +23.7% win probability
186 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 91 yards from the ATL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
46%
Yards
945
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2974%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2164%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2480%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3850%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.37100%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2750%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+1.0320%
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Saints6Falcons0
Saints7Falcons0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 4
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 30
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 30
Saints7Falcons6
Saints7Falcons7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Saints 18
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 46
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 35
Saints10Falcons7
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Falcons 31
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 43
Saints13Falcons7
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Falcons 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Saints13Falcons13
Saints13Falcons14
Touchdown4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 44
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Falcons 17
Saints16Falcons14
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Falcons 27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Saints16Falcons20
Saints16Falcons21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 5
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 30
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Saints 46
Saints22Falcons21
Saints23Falcons21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 6
The period ended13 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Saints 15
4th quarter48 plays
Saints23Falcons27
Saints23Falcons29
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Saints29Falcons29
Saints30Falcons29
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Saints30Falcons35
Saints30Falcons37
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 3
Saints36Falcons37
Saints37Falcons37
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Falcons 7
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 44
The period ended2 plays
Overtime19 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Saints43Falcons37
Touchdown18 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Falcons 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -1.5
Closing total
54
Saints moneyline
+113
Falcons moneyline
-125
Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54; the game landed 80 — over by 26.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Saints 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Dan Quinn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Overtime · 8:44
ATL +15% win prob
(8:44) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to ATL 46 for 23 yards (27-D.Kazee).
4th · 7:08ATL +15% win prob(7:08) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. PENALTY on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at NO 11 - No Play.
