2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · NRG Stadium

New York GiantsWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -6.5 upsetO 44 ✓DomeTexans closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 27–22. Biggest swing: Q4 14:15, NYG +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:15NYG — HOU HOU ball · 2nd & 25NYG 71%

(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 26-L.Miller INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at NYG 0. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:15NYG +17% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 26-L.Miller INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at NYG 0. Touchback.
Q3 · 3:56NYG +13% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller to NYG 27 for 6 yards (72-K.Wynn). FUMBLES (72-K.Wynn), RECOVERED by NYG-38-D.Deayon at NYG 25. 38-D.Deayon to NYG 25 for no gain (88-J.Akins).
Q4 · 7:43HOU +10% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 15-W.Fuller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:58HOU +8% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to HOU 16 for 30 yards (20-J.Reid).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Texans
Offensive plays	59	61
Total yards	380	427 (edge)
Yards per play	6.4	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	0.08
Success rate	47%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.47 (edge)	0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Texans outgained Giants 427–380 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

24/40, 385 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.2 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

25/29, 297 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.5 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

17 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

5 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Odell BeckhamWR

9/10 for 109 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

5/11 for 101 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 26	12	69	4:50	Turnover on downs
2	NYG	NYG 25	12	80	6:00	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 22	5	11	2:07	Punt
4	NYG	NYG 16	9	48	5:14	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 25	5	6	1:15	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 24	10	64	5:59	Turnover on downs
7	HOU	HOU 25	5	4	1:19	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 29	7	71	1:56	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 25	10	70	1:20	Turnover on downs
10	NYG	NYG 22	7	15	3:06	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 24	7	41	3:13	Turnover on downs
12	NYG	NYG 9	6	20	2:59	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 45	5	28	1:55	Fumble
14	NYG	NYG 25	5	1	1:50	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 39	5	46	2:52	Interception
16	NYG	NYG 20	5	4	2:56	Punt
17	HOU	HOU 33	8	77	3:32	Touchdown
18	NYG	NYG 23	11	77	5:29	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 25	14	75	2:07	Touchdown
20	NYG	NYG 29	2	0	0:01	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	25/29	297	2	0	4	15.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	17	82	4.8	1	-1.3
Wayne Gallman	6	25	4.2	0	-1.0
Jonathan Stewart	2	8	4.0	0	-0.3
Odell Beckham	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6
Eli Manning	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	9	10	109	0	34%	6.3
Sterling Shepard	6	7	80	1	24%	9.5
Rhett Ellison	3	3	39	1	10%	4.2
Saquon Barkley	5	5	35	0	17%	1.1
Evan Engram	1	1	19	0	3%	1.4
Cody Latimer	1	2	15	0	7%	0.2
Wayne Gallman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Curtis Riley	4	3	0.0	0	0
Damon Harrison	3	4	0.0	0	0
Kerry Wynn	4	2	0.0	0	1
Landon Collins	3	3	0.0	0	1
Alec Ogletree	2	3	0.0	1	1
Donte Deayon	3	1	0.0	0	0
B.W. Webb	3	0	0.0	0	1
Lorenzo Carter	2	1	1.0	0	0
Janoris Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0	1
Kareem Martin	0	2	0.0	0	1

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	24/40	385	2	1	3	13.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Deshaun Watson	5	36	7.2	2.3
Alfred Blue	4	13	3.3	-0.9
Lamar Miller	10	10	1.0	-5.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	5	11	101	1	29%	4.4
DeAndre Hopkins	6	10	86	0	26%	3.3
Jordan Thomas	2	2	53	0	5%	3.4
Ryan Griffin	2	4	44	0	11%	0.7
Lamar Miller	5	6	41	1	16%	-5.2
Vyncint Smith	1	2	28	0	5%	1.3
Jordan Akins	1	1	18	0	3%	1.6
Bruce Ellington	1	1	10	0	3%	2.1
Alfred Blue	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tyrann Mathieu	7	2	0.0	1
J.J. Watt	4	4	3.0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	4	0.0	1
Benardrick McKinney	3	4	0.0	0
Aaron Colvin	4	2	0.0	0
Zach Cunningham	4	1	0.0	0
Justin Reid	4	0	0.0	0
Angelo Blackson	3	0	1.0	0
Shareece Wright	2	1	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -6.5
Closing total: 44
NYG moneyline: +230
HOU moneyline: -259

Texans closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 49 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: NYG 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Pat Shurmur vs Bill O'Brien