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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Giants 27, Texans 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:15, 2nd and 25, on Alec Ogletree — 17.2 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:15 · 2nd and 25
Alec Ogletree
Giants
(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 26-L.Miller INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at NYG 0. Touchback.
Dome
Texans closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 27–22. Biggest swing: Q4 14:15, Giants +17.2% win probability on one snap.
17.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lamar MillerGiantsQ3 3:56(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller to NYG 27 for 6 yards (72-K.Wynn). FUMBLES (72-K.Wynn), RECOVERED by NYG-38-D.Deayon at NYG 25. 38-D.Deayon to NYG 25 for no gain (88-J.Akins).
12.8pts
Will FullerTexansQ4 7:43(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 15-W.Fuller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants won this one — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Texans at 5 of 12 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Giants164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 26-L.Miller INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at NYG 0. Touchback.
Swing −17.2 for TexansExpected points −4.05 for TexansThe model had Giants 9 points higher than the market did.play 126
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:15NYG +17% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 26-L.Miller INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at NYG 0. Touchback.
3rd · 3:56NYG +13% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller to NYG 27 for 6 yards (72-K.Wynn). FUMBLES (72-K.Wynn), RECOVERED by NYG-38-D.Deayon at NYG 25. 38-D.Deayon to NYG 25 for no gain (88-J.Akins).
4th · 7:43HOU +10% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 15-W.Fuller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:58HOU +8% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to HOU 16 for 30 yards (20-J.Reid).
1st · 11:52HOU +6% win prob(11:52) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas pushed ob at NYG 5 for 39 yards (35-C.Riley).
3rd · 1:27HOU +6% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to NYG 22 for 15 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 15-yard rushing touchdown with 4:17 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:13Ka'imi Fairbairn·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+30–3
1st4:17Saquon Barkley·15-yd TD run15-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
2nd11:53Aldrick Rosas·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+310–3
2nd4:38Aldrick Rosas·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+313–3
2nd1:24Rhett Ellison·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning+720–3
2nd0:04Ka'imi Fairbairn·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+320–6
3rd8:46Ka'imi Fairbairn·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+320–9
Texans ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Giants: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.08Texans: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Giants: +0.47 expected points added per play
+0.24Texans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.47Texans: −0.47 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 59 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Texans’s 61 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Texans 5.
NoteTexans outgained Giants 427-380 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.7% in week 2 against 18.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 2 against 47.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 13 pts
off script — got home · +10.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Texans18.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.4%, 10.4 points above their season mean of 13.0% and 2.1 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 26-L.Miller INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at NYG 0. Touchback.
Q4 14:15 · Texans · 2nd & goal at NYG 25 · gained nothing · -4.05 EP · −11.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 77 yards from the NYG 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
806
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1474%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2669%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.0359%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2942%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Giants0Texans3
Field goal14 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Giants 2
Giants6Texans3
Giants7Texans3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Texans 15
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 39
2nd quarter50 plays
Giants10Texans3
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Texans 26
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Giants13Texans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Texans 6
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
Giants19Texans3
Giants20Texans3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Texans 16
Giants20Texans6
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Giants 5
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 37
Giants20Texans9
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Giants 35
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 29
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Giants 33
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Giants 8
4th quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Giants20Texans15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Giants 6
Giants26Texans15
Giants27Texans15
Touchdown14 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Texans 6
Giants27Texans21
Giants27Texans22
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Giants 4
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
