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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 21, Jets 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:27, 1st and 10, on Joe Schobert — 21.3 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:27 · 1st and 10
Joe Schobert
Browns
(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at NYJ 43. 53-J.Schobert to NYJ 43 for no gain.
Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Cleveland Browns 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:27, Browns +21.3% win probability on one snap.
21.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Robbie ChosenBrownsQ3 6:31(6:31) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to NYJ 26 for 17 yards (21-D.Ward). FUMBLES (21-D.Ward), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at NYJ 28. 21-D.Ward to NYJ 8 for 20 yards (11-R.Anderson).
17.3pts
Jarvis LandryBrownsQ3 1:19(1:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to NYJ 1 for 29 yards (36-D.Middleton).
13.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Jets175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at NYJ 43. 53-J.Schobert to NYJ 43 for no gain.
Swing +21.3 for BrownsExpected points +4.15 for BrownsThe model had Jets 3 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:27NYJ +21% win prob(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at NYJ 43. 53-J.Schobert to NYJ 43 for no gain.
3rd · 6:31NYJ +17% win prob(6:31) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to NYJ 26 for 17 yards (21-D.Ward). FUMBLES (21-D.Ward), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at NYJ 28. 21-D.Ward to NYJ 8 for 20 yards (11-R.Anderson).
3rd · 1:19CLE +14% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to NYJ 1 for 29 yards (36-D.Middleton).
4th · 2:07CLE +11% win prob(2:07) 34-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:48CLE +11% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-J.Kearse to NYJ 37 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).
4th · 4:58CLE +10% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 11-A.Callaway pushed ob at NYJ 16 for 10 yards (33-J.Adams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Carlos Hyde's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:07 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:58Jason Myers·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+317–14
4th2:07Carlos Hyde·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–21
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBrowns
Jets2–6Browns
268Total yards327
4.3Yards per play4.5
38%Success rate40%
40%Third-down rate39%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays6
15First downs20
2Sacks taken4
3Turnovers0
The read
Browns ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.18Browns: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 63 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Browns’s 73 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Browns15.2%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 47.5 points below their season mean of 47.5% and 1.3 times their own 36.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at NYJ 43. 53-J.Schobert to NYJ 43 for no gain.
Q4 1:27 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 37 · gained nothing · -4.15 EP · −24.6% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 75 yards from the CLE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
593
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0765%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.0648%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR19-0.1095%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2015%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.2810%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.5533%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.8588%
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 27
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Jets 33
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Jets 48
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 1 to the Jets 4
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Jets 32
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Browns 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 13
2nd quarter53 plays
Jets6Browns0
Jets7Browns0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Jets13Browns0
Jets14Browns0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Browns 2
Punt15 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Jets 25
Punt5 plays
Jets14Browns3
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Jets 27
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 39
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Jets 45
Offense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 14
Jets14Browns6
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Jets14Browns12
Jets14Browns14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Jets 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Jets17Browns14
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Browns 10
Jets17Browns20
Jets17Browns21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jets 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 31
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -3
Closing total
41
Jets moneyline
+153
Browns moneyline
-170
Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 41; the game landed 38 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 78°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south-east; partly cloudy.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Jets 4 days · Browns 4 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Hue Jackson
4th · 6:53CLE +10% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 29-D.Johnson to NYJ 45 for 15 yards (22-T.Johnson; 54-A.Williamson). FUMBLES (22-T.Johnson), recovered by CLE-81-R.Higgins at NYJ 45. 81-R.Higgins to NYJ 45 for no gain (36-D.Middleton).
4th · 13:35CLE +9% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-J.Kearse pushed ob at CLE 31 for 14 yards (21-D.Ward).
