2018 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 20, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

New York Jets

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -3 ✓U 41 ✓Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Cleveland Browns 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:27, NYJ +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:27NYJ — CLE NYJ ball · 1st & 10CLE 76%

(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at NYJ 43. 53-J.Schobert to NYJ 43 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:27NYJ +21% win prob(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at NYJ 43. 53-J.Schobert to NYJ 43 for no gain.
Q3 · 6:31NYJ +17% win prob(6:31) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to NYJ 26 for 17 yards (21-D.Ward). FUMBLES (21-D.Ward), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at NYJ 28. 21-D.Ward to NYJ 8 for 20 yards (11-R.Anderson).
Q3 · 1:19CLE +14% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to NYJ 1 for 29 yards (36-D.Middleton).
Q4 · 2:07CLE +11% win prob(2:07) 34-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Browns
Offensive plays	63	73
Total yards	268	327 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	-0.06 (edge)
Success rate	38%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	7/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

17/23, 201 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +14.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

15/31, 169 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -16.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Carlos HydeRB

23 att, 98 yds, 2 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Bilal PowellRB

14 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

8/14 for 103 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Quincy EnunwaWR

4/8 for 57 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	5	2	0:55	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 29	4	-4	1:41	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 26	7	26	1:42	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 1	4	3	1:31	Punt
5	CLE	NYJ 39	4	-2	1:53	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 11	6	15	2:46	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 6	5	25	2:19	Punt
8	NYJ	CLE 28	6	28	2:17	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 25	5	-5	1:25	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 37	11	63	5:37	Touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 26	13	28	5:09	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 9	4	-3	1:03	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 34	6	39	1:19	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 40	5	7	0:18	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 19	1	0	0:05	End of half
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	13	2:35	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 5	10	50	4:50	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 12	2	24	1:16	Fumble
19	CLE	NYJ 8	4	0	0:58	Turnover on downs
20	NYJ	NYJ 10	6	17	1:50	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 31	8	71	2:49	Touchdown
22	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	65	6:46	Turnover on downs
23	CLE	CLE 25	17	85	6:52	Touchdown
24	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	17	0:43	Interception
25	CLE	NYJ 43	4	8	0:25	Punt
26	NYJ	NYJ 6	3	23	0:45	Interception
27	CLE	CLE 34	1	0	0:11	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 85 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	15/31	169	0	2	2	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bilal Powell	14	73	5.2	0	0.6
Isaiah Crowell	16	34	2.1	2	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Quincy Enunwa	4	8	57	27%	4.1
Jermaine Kearse	3	6	35	20%	-1.1
Terrelle Pryor	1	3	25	10%	-0.6
Robbie Chosen	2	4	22	13%	-5.4
Isaiah Crowell	2	3	17	10%	1.1
Eric Tomlinson	1	2	14	7%	0.3
Bilal Powell	0	1	0	3%	-1.1
Jordan Leggett	0	1	0	3%	-0.8
Christopher Herndon	2	2	-1	7%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Avery Williamson	8	6	2.0	0
Doug Middleton	10	1	0.0	1
Darron Lee	4	3	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	3	3	0.0	0
Morris Claiborne	4	0	0.0	1
Henry Anderson	1	3	0.5	0
Trumaine Johnson	2	1	0.0	1
Robbie Chosen	2	0	0.0	0
Darryl Roberts	1	1	0.0	0
Buster Skrine	1	1	0.5	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	17/23	201	0	0	1	9.3
Tyrod Taylor	4/14	19	0	0	3	-11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Carlos Hyde	23	98	4.3	2	-1.9
Tyrod Taylor	4	22	5.5	0	-0.8
Duke Johnson	2	9	4.5	0	-0.2
Nick Chubb	2	6	3.0	0	0.3
Baker Mayfield	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	8	14	103	40%	7.2
David Njoku	2	2	36	6%	2.0
Rashard Higgins	3	3	32	9%	1.5
Duke Johnson	2	2	24	6%	3.6
Antonio Callaway	4	11	20	31%	-6.6
Carlos Hyde	2	2	5	6%	-0.6
Orson Charles	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Larry Ogunjobi	4	4	0.0	0	0
Joe Schobert	4	3	0.0	1	2
Terrance Mitchell	4	1	0.0	1	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	1	0.0	0	0
Damarious Randall	3	1	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	0	0.0	0	0
James Burgess	2	1	0.0	0	0
Derrick Kindred	3	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	3	0	2.0	0	1
Chris Smith	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -3
Closing total: 41
NYJ moneyline: +153
CLE moneyline: -170

Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 41; the game landed 38 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NYJ 4 days · CLE 4 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Hue Jackson