For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Raiders155 of 167 plays carry both curves
(2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 12-M.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard [91-C.Wake] at MIA -9. Touchback.
Swing +31.6 for DolphinsExpected points +5.58 for DolphinsThe model had Raiders 2 points higher than the market did.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:59OAK +32% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 12-M.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard [91-C.Wake] at MIA -9. Touchback.
4th · 7:30MIA +24% win prob(7:30) 15-A.Wilson pass deep right to 19-J.Grant for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The play was an end around
2nd · 12:17MIA +18% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Key].
1st · 14:56MIA +14% win prob(14:56) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 82-J.Nelson pushed ob at MIA 14 for 61 yards (55-J.Baker) [93-A.Spence].
4th · 4:09MIA +12% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 28-D.Martin right tackle to MIA 24 for 15 yards (52-R.McMillan).
1st · 2:15OAK +12% win prob(2:15) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 89-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 4. 25-X.Howard to MIA 43 for 39 yards (24-M.Lynch).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jakeem Grant's 52-yard touchdown catch with 7:30 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd1:01Jakeem Grant·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+717–14
4th7:30Jakeem Grant·52-yd TD catch52-yard touchdown catchfrom Albert Wilsonfrom Albert WilsonLead never changed again+717–21
4th2:11Albert Wilson·74-yd TD catch74-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+617–27
4th2:00Dolphins·1 pt1 pointthe league feed did not file the play that scored itthe league feed did not file the play that scored it+117–28
4th0:25M.Nugent·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+320–28
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 39.5% in week 2 against 63.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 8 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Dolphins16.7%
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.9 pts, 7.3 points above their season mean of -3.4 pts and 2.0 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Oakland Raiders
53 dressed · 8 never used
70Kelechi OsemeleG · Every snap100%76 snaps
77Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%76 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%76 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%76 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Full-time82%62 snaps
89Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation79%60 snaps
74T.J. ClemmingsOT · Heavy rotation76%58 snaps
82Jordy NelsonWR · Heavy rotation72%55 snaps
24Marshawn LynchRB · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
12Martavis BryantWR · Rotational46%35 snaps
19Brandon LaFellWR · Rotational43%33 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Rotational26%20 snaps
41Keith SmithFB · Rotational25%19 snaps
86Lee SmithTE · Rotational25%19 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational24%18 snaps
72Donald PennT · Situational24%18 snaps
28Doug MartinRB · Situational17%13 snaps
17Dwayne HarrisWR · Situational3%2 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Nick NelsonCBTank CarradineDEP.J. HallDTJustin MurrayOTAJ McCarronQBDeAndre WashingtonRBBrandon ParkerTSeth RobertsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 12-M.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard [91-C.Wake] at MIA -9. Touchback.
Q4 2:59 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at MIA 13 · gained nothing · -5.58 EP · −33.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 97 yards from the LV 2 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
45%
Yards
807
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0871%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.3277%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.2823%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0333%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+1.2933%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Raiders6Dolphins0
Raiders7Dolphins0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 12
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, four linebackers and one backIn the boxTen defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Raiders 4 to the Dolphins 1
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 1 to the Dolphins 31
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Raiders7Dolphins6
Raiders7Dolphins7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 34
Raiders10Dolphins7
Field goal20 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 2
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Raiders 25
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays
Raiders16Dolphins7
Raiders17Dolphins7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Dolphins 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Raiders17Dolphins13
Raiders17Dolphins14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Raiders 18
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
4th quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Raiders 45
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Raiders17Dolphins20
Raiders17Dolphins21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Dolphins 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.8 seconds
Raiders17Dolphins27
Touchdown2 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 26
Raiders17Dolphins28
Raiders20Dolphins28
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
