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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 24, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh30
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay27
Pittsburgh Steelers 30 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27. Final.
Buccaneers -1 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 30, Buccaneers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q1 6:00, 3rd and 10, on Vance McDonald — 20.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:00 · 3rd and 10
Vance McDonald
Steelers
(6:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 55 ✓
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 6:00, Steelers +20.4% win probability on one snap.
20.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersQ4 3:21(3:21) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to TB 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-20-C.Sutton. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TB 36 - No Play. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
15.0pts
JuJu Smith-SchusterSteelersQ4 2:31(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to 50 for 18 yards (24-B.Grimes) [92-W.Gholston].
15.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.01 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Steelers177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(6:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.4 for BuccaneersExpected points −7.46 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 3 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:00TB +20% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:31TB +15% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to 50 for 18 yards (24-B.Grimes) [92-W.Gholston].
4th · 3:21PIT +15% win prob(3:21) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to TB 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-20-C.Sutton. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TB 36 - No Play. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 1:08TB +13% win prob(1:08) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to TB 49 for 43 yards (21-J.Evans) [93-G.McCoy]. Penalty on TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul, Defensive Offside, declined. PENALTY on TB-93-G.McCoy, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 49.
2nd · 5:58PIT +11% win prob(5:58) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 34-T.Edmunds at PIT 30. 34-T.Edmunds to TB 35 for 35 yards (32-J.Rodgers).
2nd · 10:40TB +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 38-yard field goal with 12:19 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:26Cameron Brate·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+70–7
1st6:00Vance McDonald·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · kick no good, hit right upright+66–7
2nd12:19Chris Boswell·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.CanadayLead never changed again+39–7
2nd10:40Antonio Brown·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+716–7
2nd1:17Chandler Catanzaro·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap G.Sanborn+323–10
2nd0:10Ryan Switzer·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+730–10
3rd7:10Chandler Catanzaro·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap G.Sanborn+330–13
4th11:12Chris Godwin·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+730–20
4th5:49Mike Evans·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+730–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Steelers3–5Buccaneers
416Total yards456
6.9Yards per play6.7
43%Success rate38%
30%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays8
19First downs25
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers4
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Steelers: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Steelers: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Steelers: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.24Buccaneers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 68 at 84%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Buccaneers 6.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Steelers 456-416 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate, 81.0%, sat 16.9 points above their season number of 64.2% — they passed early by 2.1 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 2.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Buccaneers19.5%
inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.0%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 64.2% and 2.1 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
53 dressed · 9 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%66 snaps
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%66 snaps
67B.J. FinneyC · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%66 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%66 snaps
84Antonio BrownWR · Full-time94%62 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Full-time85%56 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time83%55 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
81Jesse JamesTE · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational48%32 snaps
85Xavier GrimbleTE · Situational24%16 snaps
45Roosevelt NixFB · Situational17%11 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Situational14%9 snaps
10Ryan SwitzerWR · Situational11%7 snaps
22Stevan RidleyRB · Situational8%5 snaps
88Darrius Heyward-BeyWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Marcus AllenDBL.T. WaltonDEDavid DeCastroGMarcus GilbertOTMason RudolphQBJoshua DobbsQBMorgan BurnettSSZach BannerTJustin HunterWR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
53 dressed · 9 never used
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%73 snaps
69Demar DotsonOT · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%73 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Heavy rotation79%58 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation73%53 snaps
77Caleb BenenochT · Heavy rotation71%52 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Heavy rotation66%48 snaps
25Peyton BarberRB · Heavy rotation60%44 snaps
11DeSean JacksonWR · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
12Chris GodwinWR · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational42%31 snaps
32Jacquizz RodgersRB · Rotational34%25 snaps
62Evan SmithG · Rotational29%21 snaps
82Antony AuclairTE · Situational22%16 snaps
16Freddie MartinoWR · Situational7%5 snaps
45Alan CrossTE · Situational4%3 snaps
38Shaun WilsonRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Marcus WilliamsCBNoah SpenceDEBeau AllenDTVita VeaDTMichael LiedtkeGAlex CappaGRyan GriffinQBRonald JonesRBJustin WatsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:00 · Steelers · 3rd & 10 at PIT 25 · gained 75 · +7.46 EP · +16.5% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 92 yards from the TB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
37%
Yards
868
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0478%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1478%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4480%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.5160%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7-0.0914%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.9667%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.03100%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 16
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 48
Steelers0Buccaneers6
Steelers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Steelers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Steelers6Buccaneers7
Touchdown5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Steelers 27
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 8 to the Buccaneers 28
2nd quarter60 plays
Steelers9Buccaneers7
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 20
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
Steelers15Buccaneers7
Steelers16Buccaneers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Steelers 12
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 6 to the Steelers 27
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt4 plays
Steelers22Buccaneers7
Touchdown2 plays
Steelers23Buccaneers7
Steelers23Buccaneers10
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Steelers 3
Steelers29Buccaneers10
Steelers30Buccaneers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Steelers30Buccaneers13
Field goal18 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Steelers 6
No good13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Steelers 46
4th quarter52 plays
Steelers30Buccaneers19
Steelers30Buccaneers20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Steelers 4
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Steelers30Buccaneers26
Steelers30Buccaneers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Steelers 24
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Buccaneers 36
Punt4 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.5 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Buccaneers 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
