2018 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 24, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -1 upsetO 55 ✓Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 6:00, TB +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:00PIT — TB PIT ball · 3rd & 10TB 75%

(6:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:00TB +20% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:31TB +15% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to 50 for 18 yards (24-B.Grimes) [92-W.Gholston].
Q4 · 3:21PIT +15% win prob(3:21) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to TB 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-20-C.Sutton. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TB 36 - No Play. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 · 1:08TB +13% win prob(1:08) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to TB 49 for 43 yards (21-J.Evans) [93-G.McCoy]. Penalty on TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul, Defensive Offside, declined. PENALTY on TB-93-G.McCoy, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 49.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	60	68
Total yards	416	456 (edge)
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	6.7
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	43% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	68%	84%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	3/10	3/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Buccaneers outgained Steelers 456–416 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

30/50, 411 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

5.5 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

30/38, 353 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

12.5 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

15 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

8 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/11 for 137 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

9/11 for 116 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 10	5	6	2:17	Punt
2	TB	TB 41	4	2	0:51	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 23	4	25	1:57	Interception
4	TB	TB 47	6	53	2:34	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 25	5	75	1:33	Touchdown
6	TB	TB 17	9	32	3:49	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 8	9	72	4:45	Turnover on downs
8	TB	TB 24	3	11	0:54	Fumble
9	PIT	TB 33	3	33	0:47	Touchdown
10	TB	TB 30	7	53	2:29	Interception
11	PIT	PIT 6	5	6	2:01	Punt
12	TB	TB 30	1	0	0:18	Interception
13	PIT	TB 35	4	-7	2:08	Punt
14	TB	TB 2	2	0	0:47	Defensive touchdown
15	TB	TB 22	7	60	1:35	Turnover on downs
16	PIT	PIT 25	11	74	1:09	Touchdown
17	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
18	TB	TB 25	15	80	7:53	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 25	12	46	6:01	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 37	13	73	5:00	Touchdown
21	PIT	PIT 25	7	12	2:26	Defensive touchdown
22	TB	TB 8	10	92	2:57	Touchdown
23	PIT	PIT 25	8	39	2:41	Punt
24	TB	TB 20	4	0	0:26	Punt
25	PIT	PIT 32	6	35	2:36	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	30/38	353	3	1	3	12.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	15	61	4.1	-3.3
Stevan Ridley	3	18	6.0	0.1
Ben Roethlisberger	4	-1	-0.3	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	9	11	116	0	30%	3.2
Vance McDonald	4	4	112	1	11%	12.2
Antonio Brown	6	9	50	1	24%	-1.3
James Conner	5	6	34	0	16%	0.3
James Washington	2	2	25	0	5%	2.6
Ryan Switzer	3	3	9	1	8%	1.4
Jesse James	1	1	7	0	3%	0.2
Xavier Grimble	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Sean Davis	5	1	0.0	0	1
Vince Williams	5	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	4	1	0.0	1	1
Jon Bostic	5	0	1.0	0	2
Artie Burns	4	0	0.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	2	2	0.0	0	0
Coty Sensabaugh	4	0	0.0	0	0
Bud Dupree	2	1	1.0	1	1
Nat Berhe	2	0	0.0	0	0
Stephon Tuitt	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	30/50	411	3	3	3	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Peyton Barber	8	33	4.1	-1.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick	5	27	5.4	2.1
Adam Humphries	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Jacquizz Rodgers	2	-1	-0.5	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	11	137	1	22%	4.6
Chris Godwin	5	10	74	1	20%	0.9
O.J. Howard	6	8	72	0	16%	4.3
DeSean Jackson	3	5	37	0	10%	-1.7
Cameron Brate	3	4	34	1	8%	4.7
Adam Humphries	3	5	30	0	10%	-0.9
Jacquizz Rodgers	2	3	18	0	6%	-5.8
Shaun Wilson	2	2	9	0	4%	-0.4
Peyton Barber	0	2	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kwon Alexander	5	3	0.0	0	0
M.J. Stewart	8	0	0.0	0	1
Lavonte David	7	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Evans	4	1	0.0	1	1
Jordan Whitehead	4	0	0.0	0	0
Brent Grimes	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	4	0	2.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	3	0	0.0	0	0
Vinny Curry	1	2	0.5	0	0
Chris Godwin	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -1
Closing total: 55
PIT moneyline: +106
TB moneyline: -117

Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 57 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: PIT 8 days · TB 8 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Dirk Koetter