2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -6 ✓O 53 ✓Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 11.

Kansas City Chiefs 38–27. Biggest swing: Q2 12:01, KC +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:01SF — KC SF ball · 1st & 10KC 93%

(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:01KC +6% win prob(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:27SF +5% win prob(13:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to KC 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.
Q1 · 11:58KC +4% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to SF 37 for 9 yards (27-A.Colbert).
Q1 · 2:29KC +4% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 17-C.Conley [54-C.Marsh]. KC-17-C.Conley was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-24-K.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at SF 32 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	64	66
Total yards	408 (edge)	386
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	0.25	0.31 (edge)
Success rate	56% (edge)	53%
Dropback rate	58%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23	0.51 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.00
Third downs	2/9	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24	24
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/38, 314 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.6 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

20/30, 251 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

10 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Alfred MorrisRB

14 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/10 for 114 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

5/7 for 79 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 19	5	5	1:41	Punt
2	KC	KC 43	12	62	4:55	Touchdown
3	SF	SF 25	7	31	2:38	Punt
4	KC	KC 16	9	33	3:26	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 25	10	77	5:28	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	7	75	2:58	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 25	5	4	1:42	Punt
8	KC	KC 28	9	52	3:35	Touchdown
9	SF	SF 25	7	8	1:37	Punt
10	KC	KC 32	10	73	1:26	Touchdown
11	SF	SF 25	7	54	0:34	Turnover on downs
12	KC	KC 25	8	23	3:24	Punt
13	SF	SF 13	8	87	2:37	Touchdown
14	KC	KC 25	5	-5	1:04	Punt
15	SF	SF 23	12	74	5:12	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 25	10	51	3:56	Turnover on downs
17	SF	SF 25	18	68	8:30	Turnover on downs
18	KC	KC 22	11	22	5:17	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	20/30	251	2	0	4	8.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Matt Breida	10	90	9.0	0	4.0
Alfred Morris	14	67	4.8	1	4.0
Jimmy Garoppolo	3	23	7.7	0	1.3
Raheem Mostert	1	0	0.0	0	-1.1
Marquise Goodwin	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	5	7	79	0	23%	5.8
Kyle Juszczyk	2	4	38	1	13%	3.3
Marquise Goodwin	3	4	30	1	13%	2.9
Matt Breida	3	3	27	0	10%	1.6
Kendrick Bourne	1	2	27	0	7%	0.1
Trent Taylor	3	4	24	0	13%	-0.9
Pierre Garcon	1	4	11	0	13%	-1.0
Raheem Mostert	1	1	8	0	3%	0.7
Garrett Celek	1	1	7	0	3%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	9	2	0.0	1
Antone Exum	8	1	1.0	0
Reuben Foster	6	1	0.0	1
Ahkello Witherspoon	5	0	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	2	1	0.0	0
Adrian Colbert	2	1	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	2	1	0.0	0
Ronald Blair	2	0	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	2	0	1.0	0
Richard Sherman	1	1	0.0	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/38	314	3	0	2	18.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	18	44	2.4	2	-1.5
Sammy Watkins	2	20	10.0	0	1.6
Patrick Mahomes	5	7	1.4	0	1.2
Tyreek Hill	2	5	2.5	0	-0.2
Spencer Ware	1	1	1.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	10	114	0	26%	9.3
Sammy Watkins	5	8	55	1	21%	3.2
Tyreek Hill	2	5	51	0	13%	1.7
Spencer Ware	2	3	29	0	8%	1.1
Anthony Sherman	1	1	16	0	3%	1.5
Damien Williams	2	2	16	0	5%	1.5
Demetrius Harris	1	3	13	1	8%	-0.1
Chris Conley	2	3	13	1	8%	3.7
Marcus Kemp	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.0
Kareem Hunt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Demarcus Robinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Reggie Ragland	4	4	0.0	0
Ron Parker	6	1	0.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	6	0	0.0	0
Eric Murray	3	2	0.0	1
Kendall Fuller	3	2	0.0	0
Justin Houston	4	0	2.0	0
Allen Bailey	3	1	1.0	0
Steven Nelson	3	0	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -6
Closing total: 53
SF moneyline: +222
KC moneyline: -250

Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 53; the game landed 65 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: SF 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Andy Reid