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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:36 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Kansas City Chiefs 38. Final.
Chiefs -6 ✓O 53 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
Kansas City Chiefs 38, 49ers 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:01, 1st and 10, on Kyle Juszczyk — 6.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:01 · 1st and 10
Kyle Juszczyk
49ers
(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 11.
Kansas City Chiefs 38–27. Biggest swing: Q2 12:01, 49ers +6.3% win probability on one snap.
6.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ1 13:27(13:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to KC 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.
4.8pts
Sammy WatkinsChiefsQ1 11:58(11:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to SF 37 for 9 yards (27-A.Colbert).
4.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against 49ers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.00 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on 49ers177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.3 for ChiefsExpected points −3.39 for ChiefsThe model had 49ers 8 points higher than the market did.play 50
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:01KC +6% win prob(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:27SF +5% win prob(13:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to KC 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.
1st · 11:58KC +4% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to SF 37 for 9 yards (27-A.Colbert).
1st · 2:29KC +4% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 17-C.Conley [54-C.Marsh]. KC-17-C.Conley was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-24-K.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at SF 32 - No Play.
2nd · 11:12KC +4% win prob(11:12) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to SF 8 for 42 yards (27-A.Colbert).
1st · 11:58SF +3% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Watkins.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 8:27 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:27Kareem Hunt·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th13:51Harrison Butker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+324–38
4th5:21Robbie Gould·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+327–38
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryChiefs
49ers4–3Chiefs
408Total yards386
6.4Yards per play5.8
56%Success rate53%
22%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns5
9Explosive plays5
24First downs24
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2549ers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.31Chiefs: +0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.2349ers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.51Chiefs: +0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.2649ers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.00Chiefs: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 64 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 66 at 62%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.9 pts in week 2 against −9.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs13.5%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 44.4 points above their season mean of 22.2% and 1.6 times their own 27.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
53 dressed · 8 never used
58Weston RichburgC · Every snap100%68 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%68 snaps
74Joe StaleyT · Every snap100%68 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap99%67 snaps
—Michael PersonG · Full-time90%61 snaps
85George KittleTE · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykRB · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
15Pierre GarconWR · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
11Marquise GoodwinWR · Heavy rotation62%42 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Rotational43%29 snaps
81Trent TaylorWR · Rotational37%25 snaps
18Dante PettisWR · Rotational37%25 snaps
46Alfred MorrisRB · Rotational34%23 snaps
88Garrett CelekTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Situational22%15 snaps
62Erik MagnusonOT · Situational10%7 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational4%3 snaps
3C.J. BeathardQB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Mike PersonCGreg MabinCBJullian TaylorDTJaquiski TarttFSNajee ToranGJoshua GarnettOGShon ColemanTRichie JamesWR
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 9 never used
61Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%75 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%75 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass+6% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:01 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at KC 35 · gained 35 · +3.39 EP · +6.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 87 yards from the SF 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
48%
Yards
792
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3657%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR36+0.1639%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.2887%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2175%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 24
49ers0Chiefs6
49ers0Chiefs7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the 49ers 1
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 36
49ers0Chiefs13
49ers0Chiefs14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the 49ers 1
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 46
2nd quarter59 plays
49ers6Chiefs14
49ers7Chiefs14
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Chiefs 35
49ers7Chiefs20
49ers7Chiefs21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 4
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 29
49ers7Chiefs27
49ers7Chiefs28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the 49ers 13
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
49ers7Chiefs34
49ers7Chiefs35
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the 49ers 12
49ers10Chiefs35
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 21
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 48
49ers16Chiefs35
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the Chiefs 11
Punt5 plays
49ers22Chiefs35
49ers24Chiefs35
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Chiefs 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 33
4th quarter41 plays
49ers24Chiefs38
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the 49ers 19
49ers27Chiefs38
Field goal19 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended16 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the 49ers 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
