2018 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 23, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX -10 upsetU 39 ✓Jaguars closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 9–6 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:19, JAX +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:19TEN — JAX TEN ball · 3rd & 5JAX 54%

(7:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to JAX 31 for 12 yards (42-B.Church). JAX-93-C.Campbell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:19JAX +10% win prob(7:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to JAX 31 for 12 yards (42-B.Church). JAX-93-C.Campbell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q4 · 2:31JAX +10% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end to TEN 48 for 15 yards (42-B.Church).
Q1 · 15:00JAX +10% win prob(15:00) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole pushed ob at JAX 36 for 11 yards (21-M.Butler).
Q4 · 4:00TEN +9% win prob(4:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at JAX 28 for -5 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey), recovered by JAX-65-B.Linder at JAX 29. 65-B.Linder to JAX 29 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	59	56
Total yards	233 (edge)	232
Yards per play	3.9	4.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	39% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	49%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	5/15	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	13 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

21/34, 155 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.0 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

12/18, 100 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.6 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

18 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

7 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

T.J. YeldonRB

6/7 for 46 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Keelan ColeWR

5/9 for 40 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	8	28	3:33	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 20	4	-5	1:30	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 40	4	6	0:47	Turnover on downs
4	TEN	JAX 47	9	12	4:11	Fumble
5	JAX	JAX 26	8	19	3:42	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 4	5	22	2:00	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 38	11	44	5:23	Turnover on downs
8	TEN	TEN 25	5	3	1:07	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 9	4	13	2:10	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 38	4	8	2:04	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 20	4	0	1:08	Punt
12	TEN	50	6	20	2:25	Turnover on downs
13	TEN	TEN 25	10	45	4:59	Turnover on downs
14	JAX	JAX 25	8	21	2:08	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 18	9	37	5:26	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 12	13	78	6:39	Turnover on downs
17	TEN	TEN 25	13	65	6:42	Turnover on downs
18	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:24	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 24	7	26	2:23	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 13	3	16	0:19	Fumble

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 78 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	12/18	100	0	0	1	0.6
Blaine Gabbert	1/3	8	0	0	2	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	18	57	3.2	-5.5
Marcus Mariota	7	51	7.3	1.0
Dion Lewis	9	26	2.9	-1.5
Tajae Sharpe	1	16	16.0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	2	4	34	19%	0.9
Taywan Taylor	4	5	30	24%	3.7
Dion Lewis	3	3	14	14%	-0.1
Luke Stocker	1	2	11	10%	0.3
Jonnu Smith	1	2	9	10%	0.2
Darius Jennings	1	1	7	5%	0.4
Rishard Matthews	1	2	3	10%	-1.5
Derrick Henry	0	1	0	5%	-0.5
Tajae Sharpe	0	1	0	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Wesley Woodyard	10	2	1.0	1
Jayon Brown	5	2	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	3	2	0.0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	4	0	1.0	0
Malcolm Butler	3	0	0.0	0
Jurrell Casey	3	0	1.0	0
Austin Johnson	1	1	0.0	0
LeShaun Sims	1	1	0.0	0
Harold Landry	2	0	0.0	0
Brian Orakpo	2	0	0.0	1

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blake Bortles	21/34	155	0	0	3	-6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	7	44	6.3	1.0
Blake Bortles	5	27	5.4	0.4
Corey Grant	6	11	1.8	-4.5
Brandon Wilds	1	5	5.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	6	7	46	21%	0.4
Keelan Cole	5	9	40	26%	-2.3
Dede Westbrook	3	4	31	12%	2.0
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	3	5	18	15%	-0.4
Donte Moncrief	2	3	16	9%	-0.1
Tommy Bohanon	1	2	5	6%	-0.4
James O'Shaughnessy	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
D.J. Chark	0	1	0	3%	-0.4
Corey Grant	1	2	-1	6%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Telvin Smith	8	0	1.0	0
Marcell Dareus	4	2	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	6	0	0.0	1
Calais Campbell	5	0	2.0	0
Barry Church	5	0	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	4	0	0.0	0
A.J. Bouye	3	0	0.0	0
Myles Jack	2	1	0.0	0
Tre Herndon	2	1	0.0	0
Malik Jackson	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -10
Closing total: 39
TEN moneyline: +357
JAX moneyline: -415

Jaguars closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39; the game landed 15 — under by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 89°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: TEN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.