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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Tennessee Titans 9 at Jacksonville Jaguars 6. Final.
Jaguars -10 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 3
Tennessee Titans 9, Jaguars 6 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 7:19, 3rd and 5, on Corey Davis — 10.0 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:19 · 3rd and 5
Corey Davis
Titans
(7:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to JAX 31 for 12 yards (42-B.Church). JAX-93-C.Campbell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
U 39 ✓
Jaguars closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 9–6 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:19, Titans +10.0% win probability on one snap.
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Keelan ColeJaguarsQ1 15:00(15:00) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole pushed ob at JAX 36 for 11 yards (21-M.Butler).
9.7pts
Marcus MariotaTitansQ4 2:31(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end to TEN 48 for 15 yards (42-B.Church).
9.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 2 chunk plays.
7 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Titans152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(7:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to JAX 31 for 12 yards (42-B.Church). JAX-93-C.Campbell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Swing −10.0 for JaguarsExpected points −1.69 for JaguarsThe model had Titans 3 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:19JAX +10% win prob(7:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to JAX 31 for 12 yards (42-B.Church). JAX-93-C.Campbell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 2:31JAX +10% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end to TEN 48 for 15 yards (42-B.Church).
1st · 15:00JAX +10% win prob(15:00) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole pushed ob at JAX 36 for 11 yards (21-M.Butler).
4th · 4:00TEN +9% win prob(4:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at JAX 28 for -5 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey), recovered by JAX-65-B.Linder at JAX 29. 65-B.Linder to JAX 29 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard).
3rd · 14:02JAX +9% win prob(14:02) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis to JAX 30 for 22 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
4th · 0:07TEN +8% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon to JAX 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to 10-D.Moncrief to JAX 33 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TEN-98-B.Orakpo at JAX 29.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 28-yard field goal with 4:13 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:03Ryan Succop·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–0
2nd8:59Josh Lambo·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap C.Tinker+33–3
3rd10:05Ryan Succop·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+36–3
4th11:31Josh Lambo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap C.Tinker+36–6
4th4:13Ryan Succop·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.BrinkleyLead never changed again+39–6
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryJaguars
Titans4–2Jaguars
233Total yards232
3.9Yards per play4.1
39%Success rate38%
33%Third-down rate36%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays2
13First downs12
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Titans: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.16Jaguars: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.17Jaguars: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.15Jaguars: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 59 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 56 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Jaguars 1.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.2% in week 2 against 12.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jaguars13.8%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 14.3% — and TEN swings 16.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Gabbert sacked+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert sacked at TEN 45 for -11 yards (97-M.Jackson). FUMBLES (97-M.Jackson) [97-M.Jackson], RECOVERED by JAX-56-D.Fowler at TEN 39. 56-D.Fowler to TEN 34 for 5 yards (66-K.Pamphile). PENALTY on JAX-97-M.Jackson, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 44 - No Play.
Q1 6:40 · Titans · 3rd & 19 at JAX 44 · gained nothing · +3.17 EP · +13.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 68 yards from the JAX 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
35%
Yards
465
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1469%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1760%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1028%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.079%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0470%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 23
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 46
Titans3Jaguars0
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Jaguars 20
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 4 to the Titans 17
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 21
Titans3Jaguars3
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Titans 23
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 18
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Titans 47
Punt4 plays
No good10 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 30
3rd quarter37 plays
Titans6Jaguars3
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 12
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 46
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Jaguars 47
Turnover on downs1 play
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 42
4th quarter42 plays
Titans6Jaguars6
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Titans 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Titans9Jaguars6
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 10
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 33
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 24 to midfield
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runAngleCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
