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2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Heinz Field
26
14
Baltimore Ravens 26–14. Biggest swing: Q2 2:59, PIT +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Ravens | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 72 | 59 |
| Total yards | 454 (edge) | 287 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 (edge) | 4.9 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.10 (edge) | -0.22 |
| Success rate | 49% (edge) | 39% |
| Dropback rate | 61% | 83% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 (edge) | -0.18 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 (edge) | -0.41 |
| Third downs | 8/17 (edge) | 3/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
28/42, 363 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.5 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
27/47, 274 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.9 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | BAL 25 | 10 | 75 | 4:15 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | PIT | PIT 25 | 4 | 6 | 0:46 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 3 | BAL | PIT 31 | 5 | 31 | 1:56 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | PIT | PIT 21 | 5 | 3 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 5 | BAL | BAL 42 | 4 | 2 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 6 | PIT | PIT 15 | 12 | 64 | 5:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | BAL | BAL 16 | 4 | 77 | 1:28 | Fumble | |
| 8 | PIT | PIT 1 | 14 | 89 | 6:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | BAL | BAL 23 | 6 | 15 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 10 | PIT | PIT 24 | 6 | 78 | 1:58 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | BAL | BAL 23 | 8 | 22 | 2:40 | Punt | |
| 12 | PIT | PIT 13 | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 13 | PIT | PIT 34 | 5 | 2 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 14 | BAL | BAL 26 | 7 | 38 | 2:48 | Punt | |
| 15 | PIT | PIT 20 | 7 | 27 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 16 | BAL | BAL 20 | 12 | 51 | 3:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | PIT | PIT 30 | 5 | -2 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 18 | BAL | BAL 32 | 11 | 42 | 6:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | PIT | PIT 25 | 6 | 20 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 20 | BAL | BAL 8 | 14 | 87 | 6:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | PIT | PIT 30 | 4 | 0 | 0:22 | Interception | |
| 22 | BAL | PIT 27 | 5 | 14 | 1:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | PIT | PIT 16 | 5 | 0 | 0:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | BAL | PIT 16 | 2 | 0 | 1:03 | End of game |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 89 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/42 | 363 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | -5.0 |
| Javorius Allen | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.1 |
| De'Lance Turner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| John Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 3 | 7 | 116 | 1 | 18% | 4.3 |
| Willie Snead | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 18% | 3.3 |
| Maxx Williams | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Levine | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Tony Jefferson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavon Young |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/47 | 274 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 40 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.3 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 13% | 0.7 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 20% | -2.2 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | 1.1 |
| Javorius Allen | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| Tim White | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | 2.2 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| De'Lance Turner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | 0.4 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Eric Weddle | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Suggs | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Carr | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Williams | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Lance Turner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -3.4 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance McDonald | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 11% | -0.8 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 11 | 62 | 1 | 24% | -4.8 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 24% | -2.7 |
| Ryan Switzer | 7 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 15% | 0.2 |
| James Conner | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 15% | -0.6 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 2% | 1.8 |
| James Washington | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 9% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Bostic | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vince Williams | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Davis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Haden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Coty Sensabaugh | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Artie Burns | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
