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Baltimore Ravens 26 at Pittsburgh Steelers 14. Final.
Steelers -3 upsetU 51 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 4
Baltimore Ravens 26, Steelers 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:59, 2nd and 4, on Antonio Brown — 12.0 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:59 · 2nd and 4
Antonio Brown
Steelers
(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 26–14. Biggest swing: Q2 2:59, Steelers +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
John BrownRavensQ2 14:03(14:03) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 13-J.Brown pushed ob at PIT 13 for 71 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
11.1pts
Tim WhiteRavensQ3 5:23(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 14-T.White to PIT 33 for 14 yards (31-N.Berhe; 21-S.Davis).
11.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 13 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Ravens172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.0 for SteelersExpected points +3.43 for SteelersThe model had Ravens 3 points higher than the market did.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:59PIT +12% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:23PIT +11% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 14-T.White to PIT 33 for 14 yards (31-N.Berhe; 21-S.Davis).
2nd · 14:03PIT +11% win prob(14:03) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 13-J.Brown pushed ob at PIT 13 for 71 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
4th · 14:18PIT +11% win prob(14:18) (Run formation) 10-C.Moore left guard to PIT 39 for 3 yards (25-A.Burns, 98-V.Williams).
1st · 10:02BAL +10% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to PIT 31 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (23-T.Jefferson), RECOVERED by BAL-23-T.Jefferson at PIT 31. 23-T.Jefferson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to PIT 31 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (23-T.Jefferson), RECOVERED by BAL-23-T.Jefferson at PIT 31. 23-T.Jefferson to PIT 31 for no gain (89-V.McDonald).
1st · 10:52
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 47-yard field goal with 4:03 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:52John Brown·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+77–0
1st8:07Alex Collins·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+714–0
2nd14:10Chris Boswell·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+314–3
2nd6:29Chris Boswell·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+314–6
2nd2:59Antonio Brown·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point good+814–14
3rd4:03Justin Tucker·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+317–14
4th11:47Justin Tucker·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+320–14
4th3:40Justin Tucker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+323–14
4th2:00Justin Tucker·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+326–14
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categorySteelers
Ravens8–1Steelers
454Total yards287
6.3Yards per play4.9
49%Success rate39%
47%Third-down rate23%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays4
23First downs15
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Ravens: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.22Steelers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Ravens: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.18Steelers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Ravens: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.41Steelers: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 72 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Steelers 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 3.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +16.2 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 27 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Steelers4.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.5%, 13.7 points below their season mean of 18.2% and 1.9 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:59 · Steelers · 2nd & 4 at BAL 26 · gained 26 · +3.43 EP · +13.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 82 yards from the BAL 16 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
737
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2081%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.0577%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.5280%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR13-0.3292%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.180%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2433%
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.5780%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Ravens6Steelers0
Ravens7Steelers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 33
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Ravens13Steelers0
Ravens14Steelers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 3
Punt7 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 44
The period ended10 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Ravens 20
2nd quarter50 plays
Ravens14Steelers3
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 16
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Steelers 2
Ravens14Steelers6
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 1 to the Ravens 20
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 38
The period ended1 play
Punt1 play
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Ravens14Steelers12
Ravens14Steelers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Ravens 26
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 41
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Steelers 36
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Ravens17Steelers14
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Steelers 29
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Steelers 45
4th quarter46 plays
Ravens20Steelers14
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Steelers 31
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 45
Ravens23Steelers14
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Steelers 10
Intercepted4 plays
Ravens26Steelers14
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 13
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 25
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
