2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Heinz Field

Baltimore RavensWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -3 upsetU 51 ✓Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 26–14. Biggest swing: Q2 2:59, PIT +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:59BAL — PIT PIT ball · 2nd & 4BAL 61%

(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:59PIT +12% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 5:23PIT +11% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 14-T.White to PIT 33 for 14 yards (31-N.Berhe; 21-S.Davis).
Q2 · 14:03PIT +11% win prob(14:03) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 13-J.Brown pushed ob at PIT 13 for 71 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
Q4 · 14:18PIT +11% win prob(14:18) (Run formation) 10-C.Moore left guard to PIT 39 for 3 yards (25-A.Burns, 98-V.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Steelers
Offensive plays	72	59
Total yards	454 (edge)	287
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.22
Success rate	49% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	61%	83%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

28/42, 363 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

27/47, 274 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

11 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Javorius AllenRB

10 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

John BrownWR

3/7 for 116 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Vance McDonaldTE

5/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	10	75	4:15	Touchdown
2	PIT	PIT 25	4	6	0:46	Defensive touchdown
3	BAL	PIT 31	5	31	1:56	Touchdown
4	PIT	PIT 21	5	3	1:55	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 42	4	2	1:35	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 15	12	64	5:26	Turnover on downs
7	BAL	BAL 16	4	77	1:28	Fumble
8	PIT	PIT 1	14	89	6:13	Turnover on downs
9	BAL	BAL 23	6	15	1:38	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 24	6	78	1:58	Touchdown
11	BAL	BAL 23	8	22	2:40	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 13	1	0	0:10	End of half
13	PIT	PIT 34	5	2	2:06	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 26	7	38	2:48	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 20	7	27	2:42	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 20	12	51	3:26	Turnover on downs
17	PIT	PIT 30	5	-2	1:01	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 32	11	42	6:15	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 25	6	20	1:25	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 8	14	87	6:40	Turnover on downs
21	PIT	PIT 30	4	0	0:22	Interception
22	BAL	PIT 27	5	14	1:19	Turnover on downs
23	PIT	PIT 16	5	0	0:53	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	PIT 16	2	0	1:03	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 89 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	28/42	363	2	0	2	11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alex Collins	11	42	3.8	-5.0
Javorius Allen	10	30	3.0	-1.7
Lamar Jackson	4	17	4.3	0.1
De'Lance Turner	1	4	4.0	-0.1
John Brown	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Chris Moore	1	3	3.0	2.7
Joe Flacco	2	-3	-1.5	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
John Brown	3	7	116	1	18%	4.3
Willie Snead	6	7	56	0	18%	3.3
Maxx Williams	5	5	51	0	13%	3.3
Nick Boyle	3	5	36	0	13%	0.7
Michael Crabtree	3	8	29	0	20%	-2.2
Chris Moore	1	1	19	0	3%	1.1
Javorius Allen	2	2	17	0	5%	0.2
Tim White	1	1	14	0	3%	2.2
Mark Andrews	2	2	12	0	5%	0.2
De'Lance Turner	1	1	10	0	3%	0.4
Alex Collins	1	1	3	1	3%	1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	4	2	0.0	0	1
Anthony Levine	4	2	0.0	1	3
Tony Jefferson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Tavon Young	3	1	0.0	0	1
Eric Weddle	4	0	0.0	0	0
Terrell Suggs	2	1	0.0	0	1
Brandon Carr	3	0	0.0	0	2
Marlon Humphrey	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tim Williams	2	0	1.0	0	0
De'Lance Turner	1	0	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	27/47	274	1	1	1	-5.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	9	19	2.1	-3.4
Ryan Switzer	1	1	1.0	-0.7
Ben Roethlisberger	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Vance McDonald	5	5	62	0	11%	-0.8
Antonio Brown	5	11	62	1	24%	-4.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	11	60	0	24%	-2.7
Ryan Switzer	7	7	32	0	15%	0.2
James Conner	3	7	25	0	15%	-0.6
Jesse James	1	1	23	0	2%	1.8
James Washington	2	4	10	0	9%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jon Bostic	6	3	0.0	0
Vince Williams	3	5	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	4	3	0.0	0
Sean Davis	3	3	0.0	0
Joe Haden	3	2	0.0	1
Coty Sensabaugh	5	0	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	1	3	0.0	0
Artie Burns	3	0	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	2	1	1.0	0
T.J. Watt	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3
Closing total: 51
BAL moneyline: +153
PIT moneyline: -170

Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 40 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: BAL 7 days · PIT 6 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.