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Green Bay Packers 22, Bills 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:48, 3rd and 4, on Ty Montgomery — 7.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:48 · 3rd and 4
Ty Montgomery
Packers
(6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-T.Montgomery to BUF 7 for 43 yards (21-J.Poyer). BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Packers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Green Bay Packers 22–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:48, Packers +7.4% win probability on one snap.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jamaal WilliamsBillsQ1 12:09(12:09) 30-J.Williams right end to GB 44 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds). PENALTY on GB-75-B.Bulaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
6.0pts
Aaron RodgersBillsQ1 7:30(7:30) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to 50 for -3 yards (55-J.Hughes).
4.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bills at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 11 of 19 on third down, against Bills at 3 of 16 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bills at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bills161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-T.Montgomery to BUF 7 for 43 yards (21-J.Poyer). BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Swing +7.4 for PackersExpected points +3.80 for PackersThe model had Bills 19 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:48GB +7% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-T.Montgomery to BUF 7 for 43 yards (21-J.Poyer). BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 12:09BUF +6% win prob(12:09) 30-J.Williams right end to GB 44 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds). PENALTY on GB-75-B.Bulaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
1st · 7:30BUF +4% win prob(7:30) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to 50 for -3 yards (55-J.Hughes).
1st · 8:21BUF +4% win prob(8:21) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to BUF 6, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.
2nd · 0:56BUF +4% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander [50-B.Martinez] at GB -1. 23-J.Alexander to GB 26 for 27 yards (66-R.Bodine).
1st · 11:06GB +4% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to GB 49 for 7 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jimmy Graham's 3-yard touchdown catch with 5:19 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:19Jimmy Graham·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgersfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, hit right uprightLead never changed again+60–6
2nd0:03Mason Crosby·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+30–16
3rd11:17Mason Crosby·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+30–19
4th2:00Mason Crosby·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+30–22
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryPackers
Bills0–9Packers
145Total yards423
2.6Yards per play5.7
30%Success rate50%
19%Third-down rate58%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays9
8First downs21
7Sacks taken2
3Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.43Bills: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.02Packers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.49Bills: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Bills: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.16Packers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 56 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Packers’s 74 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Bills 1, Packers 3.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 3 against 23.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 69.4% in week 3 against 53.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Packers23.3%
leaned — got home · +11.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.99× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 11.0 points above their season mean of 12.2% and 2.0 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-T.Montgomery to BUF 7 for 43 yards (21-J.Poyer). BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q1 6:48 · Packers · 3rd & 4 at 50 · gained 43 · +3.80 EP · +10.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 83 yards from the GB 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
37%
Yards
568
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0665%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.4577%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0750%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4067%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0817%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 28
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Bills 40
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Bills0Packers6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Bills 3
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Packers 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Packers 31
2nd quarter51 plays
Bills0Packers12
Bills0Packers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 19
Intercepted2 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Packers 49
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Packers 44
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Bills 44
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Packers 20
Bills0Packers16
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Bills 34
3rd quarter38 plays
Bills0Packers19
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bills 18
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Packers 44
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Bills 36
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Bills 42
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 45
4th quarter43 plays
Punt1 play
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Bills 46
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Packers 42
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Packers 29
Bills0Packers22
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Bills 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Packers 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
