2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Lambeau Field

Buffalo Bills

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -8.5 ✓U 44 ✓Packers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Green Bay Packers 22–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:48, GB +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:48BUF — GB GB ball · 3rd & 4GB 81%

(6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-T.Montgomery to BUF 7 for 43 yards (21-J.Poyer). BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:48GB +7% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-T.Montgomery to BUF 7 for 43 yards (21-J.Poyer). BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q1 · 12:09BUF +6% win prob(12:09) 30-J.Williams right end to GB 44 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds). PENALTY on GB-75-B.Bulaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
Q1 · 7:30BUF +4% win prob(7:30) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to 50 for -3 yards (55-J.Hughes).
Q1 · 8:21BUF +4% win prob(8:21) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to BUF 6, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Packers
Offensive plays	56	74
Total yards	145	423 (edge)
Yards per play	2.6	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.43	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	30%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	3/16	11/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	8	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	7	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.43.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

22/40, 298 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

16/33, 151 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-17.7 expected points added · -16.6% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

11 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

5 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

8/14 for 81 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Geronimo AllisonWR

6/11 for 80 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 19	5	9	2:19	Punt
2	GB	GB 35	8	34	4:27	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 6	4	0	0:20	Punt
4	GB	GB 44	7	56	2:39	Touchdown
5	BUF	BUF 25	10	28	3:48	Punt
6	GB	GB 17	10	78	5:22	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 15	5	-5	1:44	Punt
8	GB	GB 43	2	6	0:48	Interception
9	BUF	GB 49	4	5	1:01	Punt
10	GB	GB 11	10	38	4:51	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 20	9	45	1:58	Interception
12	GB	GB 26	7	40	0:43	Turnover on downs
13	GB	GB 25	11	57	3:47	Turnover on downs
14	BUF	BUF 25	8	39	5:08	Interception
15	GB	GB 30	5	34	1:34	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 36	4	-1	1:51	Punt
17	GB	GB 19	4	-1	1:08	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 38	4	-9	1:44	Punt
19	GB	GB 33	6	15	3:03	Fumble
20	BUF	GB 48	4	-18	1:54	Punt
21	GB	GB 19	7	23	3:49	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 16	7	42	1:41	Fumble
23	GB	GB 27	7	43	2:26	Turnover on downs
24	BUF	BUF 25	5	10	1:55	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	16/33	151	0	2	7	-17.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
LeSean McCoy	5	24	4.8	-0.2
Josh Allen	5	19	3.8	-3.7
Chris Ivory	6	15	2.5	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Charles Clay	4	6	40	18%	4.4
Zay Jones	4	7	38	21%	-0.9
Kelvin Benjamin	1	6	34	18%	-2.9
LeSean McCoy	3	6	13	18%	-3.1
Jason Croom	1	1	13	3%	0.7
Andre Holmes	2	3	8	9%	-1.6
Khari Lee	1	1	5	3%	-0.1
Robert Foster	0	2	0	6%	-0.8
Taiwan Jones	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ryan Lewis	7	1	0.0	0	2
Jordan Poyer	4	3	0.0	1	1
Tre'Davious White	5	0	0.0	0	3
Tremaine Edmunds	4	1	0.0	0	1
Lorenzo Alexander	2	2	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	3	1	1.0	0	0
Nate Orchard	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jerry Hughes	4	0	0.0	0	0
Lafayette Pitts	2	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	1	2	0.0	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	22/40	298	1	1	2	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	11	65	5.9	1	2.2
Aaron Rodgers	5	31	6.2	0	2.9
Jamaal Williams	11	27	2.5	0	-4.9
Ty Montgomery	5	18	3.6	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	8	14	81	0	35%	0.3
Geronimo Allison	6	11	80	0	28%	1.3
Ty Montgomery	2	3	56	0	8%	3.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	3	38	0	8%	-0.5
Jimmy Graham	3	6	21	1	15%	-2.3
Aaron Jones	1	1	17	0	3%	2.0
Lance Kendricks	1	2	5	0	5%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Martinez	6	3	1.0	0
Reggie Gilbert	3	1	1.0	0
Kyler Fackrell	4	0	3.0	0
Josh Jackson	3	1	0.0	2
Oren Burks	2	2	0.0	0
Tramon Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Clay Matthews	2	2	0.5	0
Kentrell Brice	2	0	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	1	1	0.0	0
Nick Perry	1	1	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -8.5
Closing total: 44
BUF moneyline: +317
GB moneyline: -365

Packers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 44; the game landed 22 — under by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: BUF 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike McCarthy