For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Bengals178 of 192 plays carry both curves
(:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −43.4 for FalconsExpected points −3.56 for FalconsThe model had Bengals 5 points higher than the market did.play 186
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:12ATL +43% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:02CIN +39% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones to CIN 11 for 49 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
4th · 1:21ATL +22% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 24 for 11 yards (21-D.Trufant).
3rd · 1:53CIN +20% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 81-T.Kroft INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee at ATL 23. 27-D.Kazee ran ob at ATL 46 for 23 yards (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Face Mask (15 Yards), offsetting, enforced at ATL 46. Penalty on CIN-12-A.Erickson, Horse Collar Tackle, offsetting.
3rd · 13:16CIN +15% win prob(13:16) 10-K.Huber punt is BLOCKED by 35-K.Tandy, Center-46-C.Harris, recovered by CIN-81-T.Kroft at CIN 8. 81-T.Kroft to CIN 8 for no gain (29-J.Richards).
4th · 0:57CIN +14% win prob(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 18-A.Green. PENALTY on CIN-77-C.Glenn, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 24 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Green's 13-yard touchdown catch with 0:12 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd0:02Matt Bryant·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+328–24
3rd11:25Matt Bryant·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+328–27
4th14:31Calvin Ridley·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · two-point no good+628–33
4th8:23Randy Bullock·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+331–33
4th4:18Matt Bryant·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+331–36
4th0:12A.J. Green·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton · two-point no goodLead never changed again+637–36
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryFalcons
Bengals3–4Falcons
407Total yards495
6.0Yards per play7.4
51%Success rate49%
58%Third-down rate73%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays6
27First downs25
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Bengals: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.23Falcons: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Bengals: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.39Falcons: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.05Falcons: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 68 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Falcons’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 6, Falcons 6.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Falcons8.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -0.8 pts, 5.0 points below their season mean of 4.1 pts and 1.1 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 8 never used
62Alex RedmondG · Every snap100%73 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%73 snaps
65Clint BolingG · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Cordy GlennOT · Every snap100%73 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time95%69 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time85%62 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Heavy rotation60%44 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Rotational49%36 snaps
32Mark WaltonHB · Rotational38%28 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational27%20 snaps
85Tyler EifertTE · Rotational26%19 snaps
15John RossWR · Rotational25%18 snaps
16Cody CoreWR · Situational15%11 snaps
80Josh MaloneWR · Situational5%4 snaps
74Jake FisherOT · Situational3%2 snaps
94Sam HubbardDE · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Billy PriceCAdolphus WashingtonDTJoe MixonHBCedric OgbuehiOTJeff DriskelQBThomas RawlsRBMason SchreckTEAuden TateWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones to CIN 11 for 49 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
Q4 0:02 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at ATL 40 · gained 49 · -0.18 EP · −36.8% win probability
176 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 79 yards from the ATL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
46%
Yards
902
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.3373%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2679%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3438%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0754%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2450%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Bengals0Falcons6
Bengals0Falcons7
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Bengals 7
Bengals6Falcons7
Bengals7Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Falcons 15
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Bengals 44
Bengals13Falcons7
Bengals14Falcons7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Falcons 10
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bengals14Falcons13
Bengals14Falcons14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Bengals 17
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals20Falcons14
Bengals21Falcons14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Falcons 39
Bengals21Falcons20
Bengals21Falcons21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Bengals 11
Bengals27Falcons21
Bengals28Falcons21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Falcons 1
Bengals28Falcons24
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bengals 37
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Bengals28Falcons27
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 4
Punt11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Falcons 29
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Falcons 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 46 to the Bengals 44
4th quarter58 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bengals28Falcons33
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Bengals31Falcons33
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Falcons 9
Bengals31Falcons36
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bengals 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals37Falcons36
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown20 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Falcons 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
