2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -3.5 upsetO 52 ✓DomeFalcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 37–36 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, ATL +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:12CIN — ATL CIN ball · 2nd & 10ATL 68%

(:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:12ATL +43% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:02CIN +39% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones to CIN 11 for 49 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
Q4 · 1:21ATL +22% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 24 for 11 yards (21-D.Trufant).
Q3 · 1:53CIN +20% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 81-T.Kroft INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee at ATL 23. 27-D.Kazee ran ob at ATL 46 for 23 yards (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Face Mask (15 Yards), offsetting, enforced at ATL 46. Penalty on CIN-12-A.Erickson, Horse Collar Tackle, offsetting.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Falcons
Offensive plays	68	67
Total yards	407	495 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	0.23
Success rate	51% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	69%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34	0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	7/12	11/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	25
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

29/39, 419 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.0 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

29/41, 337 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

15.3 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Giovani BernardRB

15 att, 69 yds, 2 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

14 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

9/12 for 173 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Mohamed SanuWR

6/9 for 111 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	50	10	50	4:33	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 33	7	72	3:04	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 9	9	42	3:42	Turnover on downs
4	CIN	CIN 49	9	46	3:29	Touchdown
5	ATL	ATL 25	12	75	4:09	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	7	75	2:52	Touchdown
7	ATL	ATL 21	12	79	5:16	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	8	44	2:11	Touchdown
9	ATL	ATL 25	8	43	0:44	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 25	5	-6	1:52	Punt
11	ATL	CIN 8	4	3	1:46	Turnover on downs
12	CIN	CIN 25	10	36	3:42	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 8	6	22	2:48	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 42	6	16	3:14	Interception
15	ATL	ATL 46	5	49	2:13	Touchdown
16	CIN	CIN 48	12	39	6:06	Fumble
17	ATL	ATL 25	12	66	4:04	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 25	18	85	4:08	Touchdown
19	ATL	ATL 23	3	66	0:07	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 85 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	29/41	337	3	1	3	15.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Giovani Bernard	15	69	4.6	2	3.2
Andy Dalton	2	13	6.5	0	0.7
Mark Walton	5	9	1.8	0	-2.2
Alex Erickson	1	8	8.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	11	15	100	0	37%	9.0
A.J. Green	4	8	78	1	20%	6.2
John Ross	2	2	52	1	5%	4.6
Tyler Eifert	4	4	38	1	10%	4.5
Mark Walton	2	4	28	0	10%	2.9
Giovani Bernard	4	4	27	0	10%	1.9
Alex Erickson	1	2	8	0	5%	-0.4
C.J. Uzomah	1	1	6	0	2%	0.2
Tyler Kroft	0	1	0	0	2%	-6.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Vigil	8	0	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	7	1	0.0	0
Preston Brown	4	2	0.0	0
Darqueze Dennard	5	0	0.0	1
Geno Atkins	4	1	1.0	0
Shawn Williams	3	2	0.0	0
William Jackson	3	1	0.0	0
Andrew Billings	3	0	0.0	0
Jordan Evans	2	1	0.0	0
Carlos Dunlap	3	0	1.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	29/39	419	3	0	3	17.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	14	51	3.6	0	-2.2
Ito Smith	7	35	5.0	1	1.6
Matt Ryan	2	5	2.5	0	-0.0
Calvin Ridley	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	9	12	173	0	32%	7.6
Mohamed Sanu	6	9	111	0	24%	6.7
Calvin Ridley	4	6	54	2	16%	3.7
Tevin Coleman	3	3	26	0	8%	1.0
Austin Hooper	1	2	19	0	5%	2.6
Logan Paulsen	1	1	17	1	3%	2.6
Ito Smith	3	3	13	0	8%	-0.3
Justin Hardy	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Marvin Hall	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Desmond Trufant	6	1	0.0	0	2
Damontae Kazee	7	0	0.0	1	1
De'Vondre Campbell	5	0	0.0	0	0
Brian Poole	3	2	0.0	0	0
Duke Riley	3	2	0.0	0	0
Blidi Wreh-Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	4	0	0.0	0	1
Robert Alford	3	1	0.0	0	1
Grady Jarrett	2	1	0.0	0	0
Takk McKinley	2	1	2.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3.5
Closing total: 52
CIN moneyline: +161
ATL moneyline: -179

Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 73 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CIN 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs Dan Quinn