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Oakland Raiders 45, Browns 42 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 5:39, 4th and 5 — 43.0 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 5:39 · 4th and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Browns
(5:39) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LV 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 19 for 12 yards (29-D.Johnson, 24-N.Chubb).
Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Oakland Raiders 45–42 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:39, Browns +43.0% win probability on one snap.
43.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ4 13:30(13:30) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 20, RECOVERED by LV-90-J.Hankins at CLE 20. 90-J.Hankins to CLE 20 for no gain (64-J.Tretter). Penalty on CLE-81-R.Higgins, Illegal Shift, declined.
25.2pts
A.CooperBrownsOT 8:49(8:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 89-A.Cooper pushed ob at CLE 35 for 36 yards (38-T.Carrie).
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 93 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Browns223 of 237 plays carry both curves
(5:39) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LV 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 19 for 12 yards (29-D.Johnson, 24-N.Chubb).
Swing −43.0 for RaidersExpected points +0.18 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 223
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:39OAK +43% win prob(5:39) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LV 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 19 for 12 yards (29-D.Johnson, 24-N.Chubb).
Overtime · 8:49OAK +36% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 89-A.Cooper pushed ob at CLE 35 for 36 yards (38-T.Carrie).
4th · 13:30CLE +25% win prob(13:30) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 20, RECOVERED by LV-90-J.Hankins at CLE 20. 90-J.Hankins to CLE 20 for no gain (64-J.Tretter). Penalty on CLE-81-R.Higgins, Illegal Shift, declined.
Overtime · 4:44OAK +23% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 87-J.Cook to 50 for 24 yards (26-D.Kindred) [55-G.Avery].
4th · 9:06OAK +21% win prob(9:06) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-A.Callaway pushed ob at LV 1 for 59 yards (21-G.Conley). CLE-11-A.Callaway was injured during the play.
Overtime · 1:54OAK +20% win prob(1:54) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to CLE 11 for 2 yards (93-T.Coley; 38-T.Carrie).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.McCrane's 29-yard field goal with 1:50 left in overtime put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime1:50M.McCrane·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+342–45
15 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 47.5 points below their season mean of 47.5% and 1.3 times their own 36.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4OT
B.Colquitt punts+43% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:39) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LV 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 19 for 12 yards (29-D.Johnson, 24-N.Chubb).
OT 5:39 · Browns · 4th & 5 at CLE 45 · gained nothing · -0.18 EP · +43.0% win probability
221 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 237 plays across 38 drives, personnel groupings on 237 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 38 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 77 yards from the CLE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
237 of 237 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
237
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
1058
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.2475%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0970%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16+0.3431%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0871%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.4830%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0957%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
237 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
237 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 30
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Browns0Raiders6
Touchdown2 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 25
Browns0Raiders7
Browns3Raiders7
Field goal19 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Raiders 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 41
2nd quarter45 plays
No good5 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Browns 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns9Raiders7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
Browns15Raiders7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Raiders 49
Browns17Raiders7
Browns17Raiders13
Browns17Raiders14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Browns 8
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Browns 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter48 plays
Browns20Raiders14
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Raiders 10
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 49
Browns26Raiders14
Browns28Raiders14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 2
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 40
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost1 play
Browns28Raiders20
Browns28Raiders21
Touchdown4 plays
Punt6 plays
Drive ended3 plays, from the Raiders 42 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended1 play
4th quarter1 plays
3rd quarter3 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 21
4th quarter70 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns28Raiders24
Field goal2 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 20
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Browns28Raiders30
Browns28Raiders31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 19
Punt5 plays
Browns28Raiders34
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 26
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Browns34Raiders34
Browns35Raiders34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Raiders 1
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns41Raiders34
Browns42Raiders34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Raiders 41
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Browns 6
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 18
Browns42Raiders40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns42Raiders42
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Browns 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Raiders 49
The period ended2 plays
Overtime28 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Browns 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns42Raiders45
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Browns 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -2.5
Closing total
44.5
Browns moneyline
+122
Raiders moneyline
-135
Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 87 — over by 42.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 72°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Browns 10 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Hue Jackson vs Jon Gruden
1st · 10:11CLE +18% win prob(10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at CLE 36. 21-G.Conley for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:14CLE +17% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson at LV 14. 27-R.Nelson to LV 14 for no gain (80-J.Landry).
