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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 26, Lions 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:24, 2nd and 12, on Golden Tate — 24.7 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:24 · 2nd and 12
Golden Tate
Lions
(2:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:24, Lions +24.7% win probability on one snap.
24.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ezekiel ElliottCowboysQ4 1:23(1:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 21-E.Elliott to DET 25 for 34 yards (40-J.Davis).
24.6pts
Brett MaherCowboysQ4 0:03(:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
23.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 11 on third down, against Cowboys at 5 of 12 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.26 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Lions154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(2:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.7 for CowboysExpected points −4.42 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:24DAL +25% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:23DAL +25% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 21-E.Elliott to DET 25 for 34 yards (40-J.Davis).
4th · 0:03DAL +23% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
1st · 0:30DAL +19% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-94-R.Gregory, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
2nd · 1:48DAL +19% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:52DAL +14% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate to DAL 36 for 35 yards (35-K.Frazier; 31-B.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brett Maher's 38-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:34Brett Maher·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+30–3
1st0:30Golden Tate·45-yd TD catch45-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–3
2nd11:06Brett Maher·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+37–6
2nd2:54Matt Prater·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+310–6
2nd1:48Ezekiel Elliott·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+710–13
3rd3:01Geoff Swaim·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+710–20
4th5:52Brett Maher·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+317–23
4th2:24Golden Tate·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+724–23
4th0:03Brett Maher·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+324–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCowboys
Lions3–3Cowboys
382Total yards415
7.2Yards per play6.5
43%Success rate56%
55%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays7
18First downs22
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Lions, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.30Lions: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.21Cowboys: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Lions: +0.48 expected points added per play
+0.26Cowboys: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Lions: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 64 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Cowboys 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 21.4% in week 3 against 11.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cowboys11.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −3.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.3 pts, 6.6 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.6 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brett Maher+35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 0:03 · Cowboys · 4th & 5 at DET 20 · gained nothing · +0.34 EP · +34.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 85 yards from the DAL 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
46%
Yards
796
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3658%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1558%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2636%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.4611%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+1.54100%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 39
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 29
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cowboys 41
Lions0Cowboys3
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Lions 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Lions6Cowboys3
Lions7Cowboys3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Cowboys 45
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Lions7Cowboys6
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Lions 25
Lions10Cowboys6
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 13
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Lions10Cowboys12
Lions10Cowboys13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 38
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 26
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Lions 18
Lions10Cowboys19
Lions10Cowboys20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Lions 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 34
4th quarter44 plays
Lions16Cowboys20
Lions17Cowboys20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 8
Lions17Cowboys23
Field goal19 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Lions 4
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Lions23Cowboys23
Lions24Cowboys23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 36
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Lions24Cowboys26
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -2.5
Closing total
44
Lions moneyline
+127
Cowboys moneyline
-140
Cowboys closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44; the game landed 50 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Walt Coleman
Rest
Lions 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Matt Patricia vs Jason Garrett
4th · 1:50
DAL +9% win prob
(1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 17-A.Hurns to DAL 41 for 9 yards (39-J.Agnew).
4th · 2:00DET +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott to DAL 24 for -8 yards (93-D.Hand). FUMBLES (93-D.Hand), and recovers at DAL 19. 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 87-G.Swaim.
