2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · AT&T Stadium

Detroit Lions

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -2.5 no coverO 44 ✓DomeCowboys closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Dallas Cowboys 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:24, DAL +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:24DET — DAL DET ball · 2nd & 12DAL 78%

(2:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:24DAL +25% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:23DAL +25% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 21-E.Elliott to DET 25 for 34 yards (40-J.Davis).
Q4 · 0:03DAL +23% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q1 · 0:30DAL +19% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-94-R.Gregory, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Cowboys
Offensive plays	53	64
Total yards	382	415 (edge)
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	0.30 (edge)	0.21
Success rate	43%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.48 (edge)	0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

24/30, 307 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.6 expected points added · +13.2% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

17/27, 255 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

25 att, 152 yds, 0 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

9 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Golden TateWR

8/8 for 132 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

4/4 for 88 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	6	35	2:16	Punt
2	DAL	DAL 20	4	8	1:47	Punt
3	DET	DET 30	8	29	4:18	Punt
4	DAL	DAL 10	7	76	2:09	Turnover on downs
5	DET	DET 23	11	77	4:11	Touchdown
6	DAL	DAL 25	13	50	4:18	Turnover on downs
7	DET	DET 25	14	78	8:11	Turnover on downs
8	DAL	DAL 25	6	60	1:11	Touchdown
9	DET	DET 25	7	13	1:35	Punt
10	DAL	DAL 19	1	0	0:04	End of half
11	DAL	DAL 25	11	22	5:45	Punt
12	DET	DET 12	4	0	2:13	Punt
13	DAL	DAL 36	9	64	4:03	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 25	9	75	3:39	Touchdown
15	DAL	DAL 11	17	80	8:31	Turnover on downs
16	DET	DET 25	8	75	3:32	Touchdown
17	DAL	DAL 25	10	55	2:17	Turnover on downs

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 80 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/30	307	2	0	3	16.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	9	55	6.1	1	1.3
Jamal Agnew	1	17	17.0	0	1.0
LeGarrette Blount	7	12	1.7	0	-3.0
Theo Riddick	1	7	7.0	0	0.1
Matthew Stafford	2	5	2.5	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Golden Tate	8	8	132	2	28%	13.7
Kenny Golladay	4	4	74	0	14%	8.2
Marvin Jones	3	6	56	0	21%	2.1
Theo Riddick	4	5	20	0	17%	-1.8
Levine Toilolo	2	2	12	0	7%	1.0
Hakeem Valles	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.1
Luke Willson	1	2	6	0	7%	-1.6
Kerryon Johnson	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jarrad Davis	9	3	0.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	5	3	0.0	0
Glover Quin	4	3	0.0	1
Nevin Lawson	3	2	0.0	1
Devon Kennard	2	3	1.0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	2	0.0	1
Jamal Agnew	3	0	0.0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	3	0	1.0	0
Darius Slay	3	0	0.0	3
Sylvester Williams	2	1	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	17/27	255	2	0	3	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	25	152	6.1	5.5
Rod Smith	6	22	3.7	-0.3
Tavon Austin	1	7	7.0	0.2
Dak Prescott	3	2	0.7	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	4	4	88	1	15%	8.7
Cole Beasley	4	5	53	0	19%	3.3
Michael Gallup	2	5	45	0	19%	0.8
Geoff Swaim	3	5	39	1	19%	1.0
Allen Hurns	3	5	30	0	19%	-0.2
Rod Smith	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
Tavon Austin	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Rico Gathers	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Chidobe Awuzie	5	3	0.0	1
Demarcus Lawrence	6	2	3.0	0
Jaylon Smith	5	2	0.0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	5	1	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	1	2	0.0	0
Byron Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Taco Charlton	2	1	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	2	1	0.0	0
Jeff Heath	2	1	0.0	0
Rod Smith	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -2.5
Closing total: 44
DET moneyline: +127
DAL moneyline: -140

Cowboys closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 50 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: DET 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Jason Garrett