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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 37 at Indianapolis Colts 34. Final.
Texans -1 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 4
Houston Texans 37, Colts 34 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 0:27, 4th and 4, on Andrew Luck — 53.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 0:27 · 4th and 4
Andrew Luck
Colts
(:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (24-J.Joseph).
Dome
Texans closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Houston Texans 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 0:27, Colts +53.7% win probability on one snap.
53.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ka'imi FairbairnColtsQ4 0:06(:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
35.6pts
Adam VinatieriTexansOT 6:04(6:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
38.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.93 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Texans223 of 238 plays carry both curves
(:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (24-J.Joseph).
Swing +53.7 for ColtsExpected points −1.60 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 233
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:27IND +54% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (24-J.Joseph).
Overtime · 6:04HOU +38% win prob(6:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
4th · 0:06HOU +36% win prob(:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
Overtime · 0:24IND +32% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to IND 19 for 24 yards (26-C.Geathers).
Overtime · 1:54HOU +28% win prob(1:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
Overtime · 2:54IND +24% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee pushed ob at IND 23 for 13 yards (27-N.Hairston).
Overtime · 7:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 37-yard field goal with 0:03 left in overtime put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:22Zach Pascal·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+70–7
3rd5:21Nyheim Miller-Hines·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+728–17
4th7:45Eric Ebron·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck · two-point no good+628–23
4th3:02Ka'imi Fairbairn·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+331–23
4th0:51Nyheim Miller-Hines·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck · two-point good+831–31
Overtime6:04Adam Vinatieri·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+331–34
Overtime1:54Ka'imi Fairbairn·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+334–34
Overtime0:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+337–34
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Texans5–4Colts
466Total yards480
5.7Yards per play5.6
48%Success rate45%
50%Third-down rate59%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays4
29First downs28
7Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Texans ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.93 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Texans: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.02Colts: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Texans: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.17Colts: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.93Colts: −0.93 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 82 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Colts’s 85 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Colts 4.
NoteColts outgained Texans 480-466 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
65 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 70 dropbacks
Colts20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 20.3 points above their season mean of 59.7% and 1.4 times their own 14.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
A.Luck pass+54% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (24-J.Joseph).
OT 0:27 · Colts · 4th & 4 at IND 43 · gained nothing · -1.60 EP · +53.7% win probability
221 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 238 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 238 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 85 yards from the IND 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
238 of 238 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
238
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
44%
Yards
946
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR71+0.0885%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0267%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR33+0.1545%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
238 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
238 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Texans0Colts6
Texans0Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 4
Punt13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 39
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans6Colts7
Touchdown2 plays
Texans7Colts7
Punt6 plays
Texans13Colts7
Texans14Colts7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Colts 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 48
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Colts 45
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 36
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 44
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 10
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Colts 30
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost1 play
Texans20Colts7
Texans21Colts7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 5
Texans21Colts10
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Texans 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Texans27Colts10
Texans28Colts10
Touchdown19 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Colts 5
Texans28Colts16
Texans28Colts17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 14
Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 35
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 6 to the Texans 41
4th quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays
Texans28Colts23
Touchdown18 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Texans 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Texans31Colts23
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Colts 22
Texans31Colts29
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Texans 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans31Colts31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
No good5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
The period ended2 plays
Overtime42 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Texans31Colts34
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Texans34Colts34
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 46
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Texans37Colts34
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Colts 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
