2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Indianapolis Colts

HOU -1 ✓O 48 ✓DomeTexans closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Houston Texans 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 0:27, IND +54% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 0:27HOU — IND IND ball · 4th & 4HOU 94%

(:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (24-J.Joseph).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 0:27IND +54% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (24-J.Joseph).
OT · 6:04HOU +38% win prob(6:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
Q4 · 0:06HOU +36% win prob(:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
OT · 0:24IND +32% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to IND 19 for 24 yards (26-C.Geathers).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Colts
Offensive plays	82	85
Total yards	466	480 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	48% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	61%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.93
Third downs	8/16	10/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	29 (edge)	28
Sacks taken	7	4 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Colts outgained Texans 480–466 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

40/62, 464 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

11.6 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

29/42, 375 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.8 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

14 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

6 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

10/12 for 169 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

4/6 for 115 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	9	75	3:43	Touchdown
2	HOU	HOU 25	11	31	5:42	Punt
3	IND	IND 2	2	0	0:16	Defensive touchdown
4	IND	IND 24	5	-9	2:07	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 48	6	52	1:27	Touchdown
6	IND	IND 25	10	18	2:33	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 15	6	40	2:13	Punt
8	IND	IND 14	7	22	1:13	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 24	5	20	1:56	Punt
10	IND	IND 9	4	1	1:32	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 46	11	11	5:25	Punt
12	IND	IND 12	1	-4	0:06	Fumble
13	HOU	IND 8	3	8	0:39	Touchdown
14	IND	IND 30	7	36	1:06	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
16	HOU	HOU 21	17	84	8:21	Touchdown
17	IND	IND 25	7	70	1:25	Touchdown
18	HOU	HOU 21	3	14	0:39	Interception
19	IND	HOU 45	4	3	1:53	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 6	8	35	3:39	Punt
21	IND	IND 27	14	103	6:22	Touchdown
22	HOU	HOU 24	11	54	4:43	Turnover on downs
23	IND	IND 15	11	87	2:13	Touchdown
24	HOU	HOU 25	5	34	0:44	Turnover on downs
25	IND	IND 49	1	0	0:01	Turnover on downs
26	IND	IND 25	14	50	4:00	Turnover on downs
27	HOU	HOU 30	13	59	4:10	Turnover on downs
28	IND	IND 25	6	28	1:26	Turnover on downs
29	HOU	IND 43	3	24	0:24	Turnover on downs

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 103 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	29/42	375	2	1	7	10.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Miller	14	49	3.5	0	-1.8
Deshaun Watson	6	41	6.8	1	4.4
Alfred Blue	13	31	2.4	0	-4.2
Keke Coutee	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	10	12	169	1	30%	10.2
Keke Coutee	11	15	109	0	38%	3.4
Will Fuller	4	5	49	1	13%	3.4
Jordan Akins	2	3	24	0	8%	3.3
Ryan Griffin	1	1	12	0	3%	0.9
Sammie Coates	1	1	12	0	3%	0.7
Alfred Blue	0	3	0	0	8%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Johnathan Joseph	7	1	0.0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	7	0	0.0	1
Zach Cunningham	5	1	0.0	2
Justin Reid	4	1	0.0	1
Benardrick McKinney	5	0	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	1	0.0	0
Aaron Colvin	4	0	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	4	0	2.0	0
Shareece Wright	4	0	0.0	2
J.J. Watt	3	0	2.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	40/62	464	4	0	4	11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Wilkins	8	16	2.0	-4.1
Andrew Luck	3	11	3.7	-6.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	10	2.5	-2.3
Jeremy McNichols	2	4	2.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	4	6	115	0	10%	10.7
Chester Rogers	8	11	85	0	18%	4.7
Ryan Grant	5	7	64	0	11%	3.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	9	11	63	2	18%	4.4
Zach Pascal	6	10	56	1	16%	0.8
Eric Ebron	5	10	40	1	16%	0.6
Marcus Johnson	2	3	24	0	5%	1.8
Mo Alie-Cox	1	2	17	0	3%	-0.9
Jordan Wilkins	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	8	5	1.0	0	0
Denico Autry	6	2	2.0	0	0
Anthony Walker	6	1	1.0	0	0
Clayton Geathers	7	0	0.0	0	0
Pierre Desir	5	0	0.0	1	1
Jabaal Sheard	4	1	0.5	0	0
Matthias Farley	4	1	0.0	0	1
Al Woods	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	3	0	0.0	0	0
Nate Hairston	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -1
Closing total: 48
HOU moneyline: -115
IND moneyline: +104

Texans closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 48; the game landed 71 — over by 23.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: HOU 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.