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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 1, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Final
ChiefsKansas City27
BY 4final margin
BroncosDenver23
Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Denver Broncos 23. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 ✓U 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 4
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Broncos 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:03, 3rd and 7, on Demetrius Harris — 24.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:03 · 3rd and 7
Demetrius Harris
Chiefs
(2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:03, Chiefs +24.9% win probability on one snap.
24.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jeff HeuermanBroncosQ4 0:56(:56) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 82-J.Heuerman to KC 28 for 36 yards (38-R.Parker) [25-A.Watts].
17.3pts
Courtland SuttonChiefsQ4 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to KC 19 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at KC 25. 50-J.Houston to KC 25 for no gain (72-G.Bolles). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
15.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 11 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 8 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chiefs170 of 183 plays carry both curves
(2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.
Swing −24.9 for BroncosExpected points −3.04 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 5 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:03DEN +25% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.
4th · 0:56DEN +17% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 82-J.Heuerman to KC 28 for 36 yards (38-R.Parker) [25-A.Watts].
4th · 0:16KC +15% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to KC 19 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at KC 25. 50-J.Houston to KC 25 for no gain (72-G.Bolles). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
3rd · 11:34DEN +14% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 3 for 29 yards (29-B.Roby).
4th · 1:39KC +12% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at DEN 15 for -10 yards (25-A.Watts).
4th · 1:43DEN +11% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 1:43 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:38Brandon McManus·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.King · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
1st6:07Harrison Butker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+33–3
4th12:52Brandon McManus·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.King · snap C.Kreiter+313–23
4th6:30Travis Kelce·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+720–23
4th1:43Kareem Hunt·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs7–2Broncos
447Total yards385
6.3Yards per play6.5
54%Success rate47%
47%Third-down rate18%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays11
21First downs20
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Chiefs: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Chiefs: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Chiefs: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.35Broncos: +0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 71 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Broncos’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Broncos 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 24.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos19.1%
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.3%, 9.3 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 1.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 8 never used
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%78 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%78 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.
Q4 2:03 · Chiefs · 3rd & 7 at DEN 46 · gained 35 · +3.04 EP · +23.9% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 89 yards from the KC 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
831
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1866%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1575%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.4768%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.6133%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.4414%
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.2160%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Chiefs0Broncos3
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 24
Chiefs3Broncos3
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 15
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 31
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Chiefs 48
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Chiefs9Broncos3
Chiefs10Broncos3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Broncos 8
Chiefs10Broncos9
Chiefs10Broncos10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Chiefs 14
Punt12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 47
Chiefs10Broncos13
Field goal15 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Chiefs 16
3rd quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Chiefs13Broncos13
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 1
Intercepted2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Broncos 35
Chiefs13Broncos19
Chiefs13Broncos20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Chiefs 1
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Chiefs13Broncos23
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Chiefs 28
Chiefs19Broncos23
Chiefs20Broncos23
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 2
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs26Broncos23
Chiefs27Broncos23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Broncos 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3.5
Closing total
53.5
Chiefs moneyline
-176
Broncos moneyline
+159
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 50 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Chiefs 8 days · Broncos 8 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Vance Joseph
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 2:53DEN +11% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-D.Robinson to DEN 46 for 23 yards (31-J.Simmons) [95-D.Wolfe].
4th · 3:07KC +10% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [55-B.Chubb]. PENALTY on KC-15-P.Mahomes, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
