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2018 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 1, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
27
23
Kansas City Chiefs 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:03, DEN +25% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Chiefs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 59 |
| Total yards | 447 (edge) | 385 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 | 6.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.25 (edge) | 0.04 |
| Success rate | 54% (edge) | 47% |
| Dropback rate | 66% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.25 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 | 0.35 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/15 (edge) | 2/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 11 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
28/45, 304 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.4 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
21/33, 245 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.4 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 25 | 8 | 51 | 3:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | KC | KC 25 | 11 | 47 | 5:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 2 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 4 | KC | DEN 41 | 4 | 0 | 0:24 | Punt | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 20 | 8 | 32 | 3:57 | Punt | |
| 6 | KC | KC 11 | 13 | 89 | 5:39 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 22 | 7 | 78 | 2:56 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | KC | KC 25 | 9 | 27 | 4:20 | Punt | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 24 | 12 | 60 | 2:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | KC | KC 25 | 13 | 77 | 5:28 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 32 | 2 | 0 | 0:16 | Interception | |
| 12 | KC | KC 43 | 7 | 28 | 2:38 | Punt | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 20 | 10 | 67 | 4:33 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 24 | 6 | 48 | 2:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | KC | KC 25 | 14 | 95 | 6:20 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 0 | 1:52 | Punt | |
| 18 | KC | KC 40 | 9 | 75 | 2:56 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 47 | 1:27 | Fumble | |
| 20 | KC | KC 28 | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 95 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/45 | 304 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 19 | 121 | 6.4 | 1 | 8.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 | 2.2 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 12 | 78 | 1 | 27% | 3.3 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 7% | 4.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Fuller | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Murray | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Orlando Scandrick | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ron Parker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/33 | 245 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 50 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 30% | 0.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 7% | 0.8 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | 0.6 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 14% | -3.2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -1.0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dee Ford | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hitchens | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Ragland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Houston | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.6 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 1 | 4.7 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Heuerman | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 21% | -3.7 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 18% | -1.2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 21% | 0.7 |
| Andy Janovich | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3% | 1.8 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 21% | 0.3 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | -0.2 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | 0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Simmons | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Davis | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adam Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Wolfe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darian Stewart | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
