2018 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 1, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Denver Broncos

KC -3.5 ✓U 53.5 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Kansas City Chiefs 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:03, DEN +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:03KC — DEN KC ball · 3rd & 7DEN 60%

(2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:03DEN +25% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.
Q4 · 0:56DEN +17% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 82-J.Heuerman to KC 28 for 36 yards (38-R.Parker) [25-A.Watts].
Q4 · 0:16KC +15% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to KC 19 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at KC 25. 50-J.Houston to KC 25 for no gain (72-G.Bolles). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
Q3 · 11:34DEN +14% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 3 for 29 yards (29-B.Roby).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Broncos
Offensive plays	71	59
Total yards	447 (edge)	385
Yards per play	6.3	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	54% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	66%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26	0.35 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

28/45, 304 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

21/33, 245 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.4 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

19 att, 121 yds, 1 TD

8.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

12 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/12 for 78 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Demetrius HarrisTE

2/3 for 59 yds, 0 TD

7% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	8	51	3:27	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 25	11	47	5:30	Turnover on downs
3	DEN	DEN 25	5	2	1:30	Punt
4	KC	DEN 41	4	0	0:24	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 20	8	32	3:57	Punt
6	KC	KC 11	13	89	5:39	Touchdown
7	DEN	DEN 22	7	78	2:56	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	9	27	4:20	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 24	12	60	2:17	Turnover on downs
10	KC	KC 25	13	77	5:28	Turnover on downs
11	DEN	DEN 32	2	0	0:16	Interception
12	KC	KC 43	7	28	2:38	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 20	10	67	4:33	Touchdown
14	KC	KC 25	5	9	1:35	Punt
15	DEN	DEN 24	6	48	2:43	Turnover on downs
16	KC	KC 25	14	95	6:20	Touchdown
17	DEN	DEN 25	5	0	1:52	Punt
18	KC	KC 40	9	75	2:56	Touchdown
19	DEN	DEN 25	10	47	1:27	Fumble
20	KC	KC 28	1	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 95 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	28/45	304	1	0	1	8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	19	121	6.4	1	8.5
Patrick Mahomes	3	7	2.3	1	2.2
De'Anthony Thomas	1	6	6.0	0	0.4
Spencer Ware	2	6	3.0	0	-0.8
Tyreek Hill	1	2	2.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	7	12	78	1	27%	3.3
Demetrius Harris	2	3	59	0	7%	4.7
Kareem Hunt	3	4	54	0	9%	5.0
Tyreek Hill	9	13	54	0	30%	0.1
Demarcus Robinson	2	3	31	0	7%	0.8
De'Anthony Thomas	1	2	15	0	5%	0.6
Chris Conley	4	6	13	0	14%	-3.2
Sammy Watkins	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kendall Fuller	7	0	0.0	0	1
Eric Murray	5	1	0.0	1	1
Orlando Scandrick	5	0	0.0	0	1
Ron Parker	5	0	0.0	0	0
Dee Ford	3	0	1.0	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	1	2	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Reggie Ragland	2	1	0.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	2	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Houston	2	0	1.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	21/33	245	0	1	4	-5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	12	69	5.8	1	1.6
Royce Freeman	8	67	8.4	1	4.7
Emmanuel Sanders	1	18	18.0	0	1.3
Devontae Booker	1	5	5.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jeff Heuerman	4	7	57	21%	-3.7
Courtland Sutton	3	6	51	18%	-1.2
Emmanuel Sanders	5	7	45	21%	0.7
Andy Janovich	1	1	32	3%	1.8
Demaryius Thomas	4	7	24	21%	0.3
Matt LaCosse	1	1	17	3%	1.4
Phillip Lindsay	2	2	10	6%	-0.2
Devontae Booker	1	2	9	6%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Simmons	7	1	0.0	0
Todd Davis	4	3	0.5	0
Chris Harris	6	0	0.0	1
Brandon Marshall	3	3	0.0	1
Adam Jones	4	0	0.0	1
Shelby Harris	2	1	0.0	0
Bradley Roby	3	0	0.0	1
Derek Wolfe	1	2	0.0	0
Darian Stewart	3	0	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 53.5
KC moneyline: -176
DEN moneyline: +159

Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 50 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: KC 8 days · DEN 8 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Vance Joseph

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.