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Miami Dolphins 7 at New England Patriots 38. Final.
Patriots -6.5 ✓U 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 4
New England Patriots 38, Dolphins 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:30, 4th and 2, on Stephen Gostkowski — 7.4 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:30 · 4th and 2
Stephen Gostkowski
Dolphins
(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 31.
New England Patriots 38–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:30, Dolphins +7.4% win probability on one snap.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cordarrelle PattersonPatriotsQ2 12:11(12:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-C.Patterson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 70th different career TD target, ties NFL record (Testaverde).
6.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ2 7:41(7:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 31, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at MIA 22. 53-K.Van Noy to MIA 22 for no gain (32-K.Drake).
6.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 2 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.72 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 11 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.41 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Dolphins159 of 164 plays carry both curves
(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Swing −7.4 for PatriotsExpected points +0.04 for PatriotsThe model had Dolphins 15 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:30MIA +7% win prob(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
2nd · 7:41MIA +7% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 31, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at MIA 22. 53-K.Van Noy to MIA 22 for no gain (32-K.Drake).
2nd · 12:11NE +6% win prob(12:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-C.Patterson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 70th different career TD target, ties NFL record (Testaverde).
1st · 7:29NE +5% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-J.Gordon to MIA 3 for 13 yards (22-T.McDonald; 47-K.Alonso).
1st · 5:21MIA +4% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 79-S.Young reported in as eligible. 32-K.Drake left guard to MIA 25 for no gain (54-D.Hightower).
1st · 1:36MIA +4% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 13-P.Dorsett INTERCEPTED by 28-B.McCain [94-R.Quinn] at MIA 36. 28-B.McCain to MIA 36 for no gain (13-P.Dorsett).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stephen Gostkowski's 20-yard field goal with 5:30 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:30Stephen Gostkowski·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+30–3
2nd12:11Cordarrelle Patterson·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–10
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Dolphins: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.15Patriots: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.34Patriots: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.72Dolphins: −0.72 expected points added per play
−0.03Patriots: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 45 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Patriots’s 72 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 1, Patriots 6.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 37.9%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.9 pts in week 3 against −8.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.3% in week 3 against 48.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +3.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots17.9%
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.9%, 15.7 points below their season mean of 53.6% and 1.6 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
53 dressed · 7 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%49 snaps
62Ted LarsenC · Every snap100%49 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%49 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Full-time86%42 snaps
86Mike GesickiTE · Full-time84%41 snaps
10Kenny StillsWR · Heavy rotation78%38 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Heavy rotation76%37 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Heavy rotation73%36 snaps
66Travis SwansonC · Heavy rotation67%33 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Heavy rotation63%31 snaps
70Ja'Wuan JamesOT · Heavy rotation59%29 snaps
79Sam YoungT · Heavy rotation53%26 snaps
21Frank GoreRB · Heavy rotation51%25 snaps
32Kenyan DrakeRB · Rotational45%22 snaps
67Daniel KilgoreC · Rotational33%16 snaps
8Brock OsweilerQB · Rotational27%13 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Situational4%2 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Andre BranchDEChase AllenOLBLuke FalkQBDavid FalesQBReshad JonesSSA.J. DerbyTEDeVante ParkerWR
New England Patriots
53 dressed · 7 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%81 snaps
77Trent BrownT · Every snap100%81 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%81 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Full-time95%77 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Full-time95%77 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Full-time95%77 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Full-time86%70 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Heavy rotation70%57 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Heavy rotation67%54 snaps
83Dwayne AllenTE · Heavy rotation56%45 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Heavy rotation51%41 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-C.Patterson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 70th different career TD target, ties NFL record (Testaverde).
Q2 12:11 · Patriots · 3rd & 6 at NE 45 · gained 55 · +5.76 EP · +9.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 90 yards from the NE 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
36%
Yards
621
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3464%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.3162%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.1122%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.1436%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2560%
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5-1.0480%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to midfield
Dolphins0Patriots3
Field goal15 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Dolphins 1
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
Intercepted5 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Dolphins 39
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 40
Dolphins0Patriots9
Dolphins0Patriots10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 45
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Patriots 48
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 45
Fumble lost1 play
Dolphins0Patriots16
Dolphins0Patriots17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Dolphins0Patriots23
Dolphins0Patriots24
Touchdown19 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Dolphins 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 27
Punt5 plays
Dolphins0Patriots30
Dolphins0Patriots31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Dolphins 14
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Patriots 45
The period ended11 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Dolphins 29
4th quarter33 plays
Dolphins0Patriots37
Dolphins0Patriots38
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 10
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 27
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Dolphins 28
Dolphins6Patriots38
Dolphins7Patriots38
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -6.5
Closing total
50.5
Dolphins moneyline
+247
Patriots moneyline
-279
Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 45 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 10:57NE +3% win prob(10:57) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 13-P.Dorsett. PENALTY on MIA-25-X.Howard, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 29 - No Play.
2nd · 7:50MIA +3% win prob(7:50) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to MIA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 36 for 12 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
