2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

Miami Dolphins

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -6.5 ✓U 50.5 ✓Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 31.

New England Patriots 38–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:30, MIA +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:30MIA — NE NE ball · 4th & 2NE 83%

(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:30MIA +7% win prob(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q2 · 7:41MIA +7% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 31, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at MIA 22. 53-K.Van Noy to MIA 22 for no gain (32-K.Drake).
Q2 · 12:11NE +6% win prob(12:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-C.Patterson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 70th different career TD target, ties NFL record (Testaverde).
Q1 · 7:29NE +5% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-J.Gordon to MIA 3 for 13 yards (22-T.McDonald; 47-K.Alonso).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Patriots
Offensive plays	45	72
Total yards	172	452 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.41	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	24%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.72	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	3/11	10/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

23/35, 274 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

11.9 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

11/20, 100 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.4 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

25 att, 112 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

James WhiteRB

8 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

James WhiteRB

8/10 for 68 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Phillip DorsettWR

4/7 for 55 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · -2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	6	35	2:55	Punt
2	NE	NE 24	13	64	6:37	Turnover on downs
3	MIA	MIA 25	7	0	2:01	Punt
4	NE	NE 35	5	12	1:59	Interception
5	MIA	MIA 36	4	9	2:19	Punt
6	NE	NE 33	6	62	2:08	Touchdown
7	MIA	MIA 38	5	2	1:14	Punt
8	NE	NE 23	6	32	3:06	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 36	1	0	0:05	Fumble
10	NE	MIA 22	2	22	0:07	Touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 25	5	7	1:40	Punt
12	NE	NE 15	16	80	5:31	Touchdown
13	MIA	MIA 25	4	22	0:18	End of half
14	NE	NE 25	5	2	0:54	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 40	4	-1	2:16	Punt
16	NE	NE 41	10	69	5:01	Touchdown
17	MIA	MIA 24	5	31	1:36	Interception
18	NE	NE 10	13	73	6:30	Touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 25	5	-8	2:04	Punt
20	NE	NE 43	4	25	1:47	Interception
21	MIA	MIA 25	14	75	7:10	Touchdown
22	NE	NE 25	5	11	2:42	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 80 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	11/20	100	0	1	2	-12.4
Brock Osweiler	4/5	35	1	0	0	6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	11	41	3.7	-2.8
Brock Osweiler	1	7	7.0	-0.7
Kenyan Drake	3	3	1.0	-2.1
Kalen Ballage	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Albert Wilson	1	2	2.0	-0.8
Ryan Tannehill	1	0	0.0	-6.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Stills	3	6	40	0	24%	0.6
Danny Amendola	2	3	21	0	12%	-0.8
Albert Wilson	4	6	19	0	24%	-4.5
Jakeem Grant	2	2	17	0	8%	0.6
Frank Gore	2	3	16	1	12%	3.2
Kenyan Drake	1	2	13	0	8%	-0.2
Mike Gesicki	1	2	9	0	8%	-0.5
Durham Smythe	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Kiko Alonso	3	9	0	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	6	1	2
Jerome Baker	6	4	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	3	3	0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	3	0	0
T.J. McDonald	2	3	0	0
Jonathan Woodard	3	1	0	0
Vincent Taylor	1	3	0	0
Charles Harris	1	3	0	0
Albert Wilson	2	1	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	23/35	274	3	2	0	11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	25	112	4.5	1	-0.4
James White	8	44	5.5	1	0.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	11	11.0	0	1.1
Kenjon Barner	3	11	3.7	0	-2.2
Brian Hoyer	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James White	8	10	68	1	29%	4.3
Phillip Dorsett	4	7	55	1	20%	-2.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	5	54	1	14%	1.3
Rob Gronkowski	4	7	44	0	20%	4.5
Josh Gordon	2	2	32	0	6%	4.6
Chris Hogan	1	1	25	0	3%	1.9
James Develin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Dwayne Allen	1	2	-4	0	6%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Jones	5	3	0.0	0
John Simon	2	3	1.0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	3	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	2	0.0	0
Patrick Chung	1	3	0.0	0
Jason McCourty	2	1	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	1	2	0.0	1
Dont'a Hightower	1	1	0.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	1	1	0.0	0
Nicholas Grigsby	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -6.5
Closing total: 50.5
MIA moneyline: +247
NE moneyline: -279

Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 45 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: MIA 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.