2018 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 27, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Minnesota Vikings

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -7.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓Rams closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 38–31. Biggest swing: Q2 9:40, LA +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:40MIN — LA LA ball · 2nd & 5LA 63%

(9:40) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-C.Kupp for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:40LA +18% win prob(9:40) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-C.Kupp for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:29MIN +11% win prob(1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 39 for -9 yards (94-J.Franklin). FUMBLES (94-J.Franklin), RECOVERED by LA-93-N.Suh at MIN 44. 93-N.Suh to MIN 44 for no gain (74-M.Remmers).
Q3 · 3:44LA +10% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:30LA +9% win prob(4:30) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to MIN 19 for 36 yards (26-T.Waynes). Penalty on MIN-20-M.Alexander, Defensive Holding, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Rams
Offensive plays	72	54
Total yards	448	557 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	10.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.19	0.48 (edge)
Success rate	49%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	79%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29	0.70 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	1/6
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.48 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

26/33, 465 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

27.6 expected points added · +14.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

36/50, 422 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.4 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

17 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

10 att, 20 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

9/11 for 162 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

8/12 for 135 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	15	75	7:05	Touchdown
2	LA	LA 25	14	70	6:00	Touchdown
3	MIN	MIN 25	13	61	6:50	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 25	4	75	0:37	Touchdown
5	MIN	MIN 25	5	75	1:24	Touchdown
6	LA	LA 25	5	7	1:07	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 29	4	4	1:20	Punt
8	LA	LA 29	5	71	1:50	Touchdown
9	MIN	MIN 25	8	15	2:06	Punt
10	LA	LA 27	3	58	0:15	Touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 30	9	49	1:24	Turnover on downs
12	LA	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	MIN	LA 25	9	39	4:06	Turnover on downs
14	MIN	MIN 36	7	18	2:32	Punt
15	LA	LA 16	6	68	3:01	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	MIN 25	7	77	1:46	Touchdown
17	LA	LA 25	7	75	2:26	Touchdown
18	MIN	MIN 25	6	6	2:10	Punt
19	LA	LA 15	11	75	5:38	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 20	9	58	4:35	Turnover on downs
21	LA	LA 25	5	9	1:26	Punt
22	MIN	MIN 34	4	10	1:02	Fumble
23	LA	MIN 44	2	10	1:18	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 77 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	36/50	422	3	0	4	15.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kirk Cousins	4	28	7.0	3.8
Dalvin Cook	10	20	2.0	-4.2
Roc Thomas	1	4	4.0	-0.1
Latavius Murray	2	2	1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	8	12	135	1	24%	10.8
Stefon Diggs	11	15	123	0	31%	3.1
Kyle Rudolph	5	6	57	0	12%	4.3
Laquon Treadwell	4	7	47	0	14%	1.3
Aldrick Robinson	2	2	33	2	4%	5.8
Latavius Murray	2	2	16	0	4%	1.8
C.J. Ham	2	2	7	0	4%	-0.7
David Morgan	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.4
Mike Boone	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.6
Roc Thomas	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mike Hughes	8	0	0.0	0
Eric Kendricks	5	2	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	3	3	1.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	4	2	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	3	2	0.0	0
Anthony Barr	2	2	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	2	1	0.0	1
Mackensie Alexander	2	0	0.0	0
Holton Hill	1	1	0.0	0
Trae Waynes	2	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	26/33	465	5	0	1	27.6
Johnny Hekker	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Todd Gurley	17	83	4.9	0.4
Brandin Cooks	1	10	10.0	0.6
Jared Goff	2	7	3.5	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	9	11	162	2	33%	10.6
Brandin Cooks	7	8	116	1	24%	8.9
Robert Woods	5	5	101	1	15%	6.7
Todd Gurley	4	6	73	1	18%	3.5
Gerald Everett	1	1	13	0	3%	0.9
Tyler Higbee	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Josh Reynolds	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
John Johnson	4	5	0.0	2
Lamarcus Joyner	5	1	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	3	2	2.0	0
Marcus Peters	5	0	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	1	4	0.0	2
Marqui Christian	4	1	0.0	1
Ramik Wilson	4	0	0.0	0
Sam Shields	3	1	0.0	1
Nickell Robey	3	0	0.0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7.5
Closing total: 48.5
MIN moneyline: +282
LA moneyline: -321

Rams closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 69 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: MIN 4 days · LA 4 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Sean McVay