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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 33 at New York Giants 18. Final.
Saints -3.5 ✓U 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 4
New Orleans Saints 33, Giants 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:45, 1st and 10, on Wayne Gallman — 27.1 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:45 · 1st and 10
Wayne Gallman
Saints
(4:45) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman to NO 47 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NYG 48. 23-M.Lattimore pushed ob at NYG 11 for 37 yards (10-E.Manning). Officially, a pass for -1 yard. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 15.
New Orleans Saints 33–18. Biggest swing: Q2 4:45, Saints +27.1% win probability on one snap.
27.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin HardeeSaintsQ1 6:59(6:59) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass short right to 34-J.Hardee to NO 43 for 10 yards (36-S.Chandler).
9.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ2 11:03(11:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate pushed ob at NO 32 for 12 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25. Officially, a return for 5 yards.
8.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 4 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Saints at 2 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.01 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Saints163 of 171 plays carry both curves
(4:45) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman to NO 47 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NYG 48. 23-M.Lattimore pushed ob at NYG 11 for 37 yards (10-E.Manning).
Swing −27.1 for GiantsExpected points −7.30 for GiantsThe model had Giants 18 points higher than the market did.play 60
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:45NO +27% win prob(4:45) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman to NO 47 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NYG 48. 23-M.Lattimore pushed ob at NYG 11 for 37 yards (10-E.Manning). Officially, a pass for -1 yard. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 6:59NYG +10% win prob(6:59) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass short right to 34-J.Hardee to NO 43 for 10 yards (36-S.Chandler).
2nd · 11:03NYG +8% win prob(11:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate pushed ob at NO 32 for 12 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25. Officially, a return for 5 yards.
1st · 13:23NYG +6% win prob(13:23) 13-O.Beckham left end pushed ob at NYG 35 for 10 yards (20-K.Crawley). End around.
1st · 3:50NYG +6% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 89-J.Hill to NYG 24 for 20 yards (35-C.Riley, 52-A.Ogletree).
2nd · 11:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 37-yard field goal with 3:40 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:30Sterling Shepard·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning+70–7
2nd15:00Wil Lutz·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–7
2nd7:23Wil Lutz·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+36–7
2nd3:40Wil Lutz·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+39–7
2nd0:15Wil Lutz·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+312–7
Saints ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Saints: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.01Giants: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Saints: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.01Giants: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Saints: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.01Giants: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Giants’s 59 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Giants 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, +8.1 pts, sat 9.2 points above their season number of −1.2 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 4.3-point weekly swing.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 3.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.4% in week 3 against 5.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Giants5.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.1 pts, 9.2 points above their season mean of -1.2 pts and 2.1 times their own 4.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 8 never used
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%70 snaps
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%70 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time94%66 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time84%59 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational37%26 snaps
81Cameron MeredithWR · Rotational31%22 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Rotational26%18 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational21%15 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Situational17%12 snaps
25Mike GillisleeRB · Situational7%5 snaps
74Jermon BushrodT · Situational6%4 snaps
43Marcus WilliamsFS · Situational4%3 snaps
36Dwayne WashingtonRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Will ClappCCameron TomCTrey HendricksonDEMitchell LoewenDEJay BromleyDTManti Te'oMLBTeddy BridgewaterQBDan ArnoldTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass−30% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:45) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman to NO 47 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NYG 48. 23-M.Lattimore pushed ob at NYG 11 for 37 yards (10-E.Manning). Officially, a pass for -1 yard. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 4:45 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 49 · lost 1 · -7.30 EP · −30.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 97 yards from the NO 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
690
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1880%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1064%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.1425%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+1.0675%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.6367%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2660%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 24
Saints0Giants6
Saints0Giants7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Saints 2
The period ended16 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Giants 13
2nd quarter48 plays
Saints3Giants7
Field goal1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 36
Saints6Giants7
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Giants 11
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 49
Saints9Giants7
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 8
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 27
Saints12Giants7
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 47 to the Giants 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 43
Saints18Giants7
Saints19Giants7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Giants 9
Saints19Giants10
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Saints 14
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 35
Saints25Giants10
Saints26Giants10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Giants 4
Saints26Giants16
Saints26Giants18
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Saints 1
Saints32Giants18
Saints33Giants18
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 3 to the Giants 49
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 44
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3.5
Closing total
51.5
Saints moneyline
-170
Giants moneyline
+153
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 51 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; partly cloudy.
Referee
Peter Morelli
Rest
Saints 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Pat Shurmur
NO +6% win prob
(11:47) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to NYG 27 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).
2nd · 6:30NYG +6% win prob(6:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 22-W.Gallman to NYG 36 for 7 yards (56-D.Davis, 47-A.Anzalone).
2nd · 2:42NO +6% win prob(2:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to NO 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 49. 87-B.Tate to NYG 47 for 2 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).
Saintscategory by categoryGiants
Saints0
Giants6
