2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

New York Giants

NO -3.5 ✓U 51.5 ✓Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 15.

New Orleans Saints 33–18. Biggest swing: Q2 4:45, NO +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:45NO — NYG NYG ball · 1st & 10NYG 55%

(4:45) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman to NO 47 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NYG 48. 23-M.Lattimore pushed ob at NYG 11 for 37 yards (10-E.Manning).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:45NO +27% win prob(4:45) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman to NO 47 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NYG 48. 23-M.Lattimore pushed ob at NYG 11 for 37 yards (10-E.Manning). Officially, a pass for -1 yard. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 6:59NYG +10% win prob(6:59) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass short right to 34-J.Hardee to NO 43 for 10 yards (36-S.Chandler).
Q2 · 11:03NYG +8% win prob(11:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate pushed ob at NO 32 for 12 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25. Officially, a return for 5 yards.
Q1 · 13:23NYG +6% win prob(13:23) 13-O.Beckham left end pushed ob at NYG 35 for 10 yards (20-K.Crawley). End around.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Giants
Offensive plays	64	59
Total yards	392 (edge)	302
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	44%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	5/12	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22	22
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

31/41, 255 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

18/32, 217 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

19 att, 134 yds, 3 TD

8.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

10 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

10/10 for 77 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Josh HillTE

3/3 for 63 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 23	5	11	1:37	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 25	11	60	4:59	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	16	51	8:29	Turnover on downs
4	NYG	NYG 24	7	13	4:06	Punt
5	NO	NO 15	9	59	3:31	Turnover on downs
6	NYG	NYG 25	7	23	2:45	Fumble
7	NO	NYG 11	4	3	0:57	Turnover on downs
8	NYG	NYG 25	5	2	1:04	Punt
9	NO	NYG 47	7	40	2:21	Turnover on downs
10	NYG	NYG 25	2	0	0:11	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 25	8	25	4:27	Punt
12	NO	NO 20	8	71	3:17	Touchdown
13	NYG	NYG 11	11	75	5:14	Turnover on downs
14	NO	NO 25	5	0	1:34	Punt
15	NYG	NYG 31	4	-4	2:02	Punt
16	NO	NO 26	15	74	6:39	Touchdown
17	NYG	NYG 25	12	77	3:03	Touchdown
18	NO	NO 3	8	83	1:38	Touchdown
19	NYG	NYG 9	7	31	1:09	Fumble
20	NO	NYG 40	3	0	0:57	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 83 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	18/32	217	0	0	1	5.2
Taysom Hill	1/2	10	0	0	0	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	19	134	7.1	3	8.6
Taysom Hill	4	28	7.0	0	0.4
Mike Gillislee	2	6	3.0	0	-0.5
Dwayne Washington	2	2	1.0	0	-1.2
Ted Ginn	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Drew Brees	4	-1	-0.3	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Hill	3	3	63	9%	4.5
Alvin Kamara	5	9	47	27%	1.1
Michael Thomas	4	4	47	12%	5.9
Cameron Meredith	3	4	32	12%	-0.0
Benjamin Watson	1	3	23	9%	0.7
Justin Hardee	1	1	10	3%	3.0
Mike Gillislee	1	1	9	3%	0.8
Ted Ginn	0	3	0	9%	-2.0
Tre'Quan Smith	0	2	0	6%	-1.7
Zach Line	0	2	0	6%	-1.3
Taysom Hill	1	1	-4	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	8	2	2.0	0
Ken Crawley	7	1	0.0	1
P.J. Williams	4	2	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	0	0.0	0
Alex Anzalone	1	3	0.0	0
Tyeler Davison	1	2	1.0	0
Vonn Bell	1	2	0.0	1
A.J. Klein	1	2	0.0	0
Kurt Coleman	1	1	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	1	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	31/41	255	1	0	3	5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	10	44	4.4	1	0.1
Odell Beckham	1	10	10.0	0	0.6
Wayne Gallman	2	6	3.0	0	-0.8
Eli Manning	2	5	2.5	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	10	10	77	1	24%	8.8
Odell Beckham	7	11	60	0	27%	-1.0
Saquon Barkley	6	8	56	0	20%	3.2
Rhett Ellison	3	5	29	0	12%	0.4
Wayne Gallman	3	3	17	0	7%	-4.7
Russell Shepard	1	3	9	0	7%	-0.5
Scott Simonson	1	1	7	0	2%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Landon Collins	5	5	0.0	1
Alec Ogletree	2	7	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	5	1	0.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	3	2	0.0	0
Ray-Ray Armstrong	2	2	0.0	0
Kareem Martin	1	2	0.0	0
Curtis Riley	2	0	0.0	0
Donte Deayon	1	1	0.0	1
B.J. Hill	1	1	1.0	0
Zak DeOssie	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3.5
Closing total: 51.5
NO moneyline: -170
NYG moneyline: +153

Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 51 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: NO 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Pat Shurmur