2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium

New York Jets

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

JAX -7.5 ✓O 40.5 ✓Jaguars closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:31, JAX +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:31NYJ — JAX NYJ ball · 1st & 15JAX 80%

(14:31) 29-B.Powell left tackle to NYJ 29 for 9 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 29.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:31JAX +5% win prob(14:31) 29-B.Powell left tackle to NYJ 29 for 9 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 29.
Q2 · 1:56JAX +4% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 24-T.Yeldon for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:53JAX +4% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook to NYJ 13 for 20 yards (26-M.Maye).
Q1 · 12:30JAX +4% win prob(12:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to JAX 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Jaguars
Offensive plays	52	75
Total yards	178	503 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	27%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	3/13	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

29/38, 388 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

16.0 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

17/34, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.5 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

T.J. YeldonRB

18 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Leonard FournetteRB

11 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Dede WestbrookWR

9/13 for 130 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Donte MoncriefWR

5/5 for 109 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	17	2:41	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 6	15	90	8:38	Turnover on downs
3	NYJ	NYJ 9	5	7	2:17	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 23	12	73	6:59	Turnover on downs
5	NYJ	NYJ 22	8	28	4:39	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 22	8	78	2:59	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 19	6	27	0:47	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 35	5	29	0:31	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	7	0:29	End of half
10	JAX	JAX 25	6	19	2:33	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 2	1	-2	0:05	Turnover on downs
12	JAX	JAX 22	7	19	3:08	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 33	4	9	1:30	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 20	3	3	0:46	Interception
15	NYJ	JAX 23	7	14	2:00	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 25	5	77	1:18	Touchdown
17	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-7	1:37	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 38	5	4	1:30	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 30	7	55	2:40	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	JAX 25	2	4	0:09	Fumble
21	NYJ	JAX 5	4	5	1:26	Touchdown
22	JAX	JAX 32	5	9	2:00	Punt
23	NYJ	NYJ 14	4	0	0:28	Punt
24	JAX	JAX 41	6	43	3:07	Fumble
25	NYJ	NYJ 16	4	12	1:21	Punt
26	JAX	JAX 35	10	55	3:57	Touchdown
27	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	6	0:25	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	17/34	167	1	0	3	-8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bilal Powell	8	26	3.3	-0.0
Sam Darnold	2	8	4.0	-0.5
Isaiah Crowell	4	0	0.0	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quincy Enunwa	4	8	66	0	24%	-0.4
Bilal Powell	4	7	26	0	21%	-4.2
Jermaine Kearse	2	5	23	0	15%	1.0
Christopher Herndon	1	1	18	0	3%	1.0
Robbie Chosen	2	6	18	0	18%	-1.5
Jordan Leggett	3	4	13	1	12%	1.2
Isaiah Crowell	1	1	3	0	3%	-1.0
Terrelle Pryor	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamal Adams	10	2	0.0	0
Avery Williamson	6	3	0.0	1
Marcus Maye	6	1	0.0	0
Darron Lee	4	2	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	4	1	1.0	0
Morris Claiborne	4	1	0.0	0
Trumaine Johnson	4	0	0.0	0
Henry Anderson	2	1	1.0	2
Jordan Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0
Jeremiah Attaochu	2	0	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blake Bortles	29/38	388	2	1	2	16.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	18	52	2.9	1	-8.3
Leonard Fournette	11	30	2.7	0	-2.2
Blake Bortles	3	28	9.3	0	0.7
Dede Westbrook	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Corey Grant	1	5	5.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dede Westbrook	9	13	130	0	34%	-0.4
Donte Moncrief	5	5	109	1	13%	9.1
T.J. Yeldon	3	3	48	1	8%	3.8
James O'Shaughnessy	2	3	28	0	8%	2.6
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	2	4	24	0	11%	0.8
Keelan Cole	2	3	15	0	8%	-0.4
Corey Grant	2	3	12	0	8%	-1.2
Niles Paul	2	2	11	0	5%	-0.8
D.J. Chark	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.0
Leonard Fournette	1	1	5	0	3%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Myles Jack	4	1	0.0
Tyler Patmon	4	0	0.0
Telvin Smith	3	0	0.0
Calais Campbell	2	1	0.0
Barry Church	3	0	1.0
Tashaun Gipson	3	0	0.0
Malik Jackson	3	0	1.0
Dede Westbrook	2	0	0.0
Taven Bryan	1	1	0.0
Marcell Dareus	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -7.5
Closing total: 40.5
NYJ moneyline: +293
JAX moneyline: -335

Jaguars closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 43 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 86°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: NYJ 10 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Doug Marrone