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New York Jets 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars 31. Final.
Jaguars -7.5 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 4
Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Jets 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:31, 1st and 15, on Bilal Powell — 4.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:31 · 1st and 15
Bilal Powell
Jets
(14:31) 29-B.Powell left tackle to NYJ 29 for 9 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 29.
Jaguars closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Jacksonville Jaguars 31–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:31, Jets +4.6% win probability on one snap.
4.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dede WestbrookJaguarsQ2 11:53(11:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook to NYJ 13 for 20 yards (26-M.Maye).
3.6pts
T.J. YeldonJaguarsQ2 1:56(1:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 24-T.Yeldon for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 1 chunk play.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 3 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Jets166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(14:31) 29-B.Powell left tackle to NYJ 29 for 9 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 29.
Swing −4.6 for JaguarsExpected points −2.00 for JaguarsThe model had Jets 21 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:31JAX +5% win prob(14:31) 29-B.Powell left tackle to NYJ 29 for 9 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 29.
2nd · 1:56JAX +4% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 24-T.Yeldon for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:53JAX +4% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook to NYJ 13 for 20 yards (26-M.Maye).
1st · 12:30JAX +4% win prob(12:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to JAX 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.
1st · 10:32JAX +3% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end to JAX 48 for 23 yards.
2nd · 13:38JAX +3% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 13 yards (21-M.Claiborne).
2nd · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Lambo's 32-yard field goal with 3:45 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:45Josh Lambo·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap C.TinkerLead never changed again+30–3
2nd9:28Josh Lambo·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap C.Tinker+30–6
4th12:56Jason Myers·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+36–25
4th11:21Jordan Leggett·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold · two-point no good+612–25
4th0:27T.J. Yeldon·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+612–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryJaguars
Jets1–7Jaguars
178Total yards503
3.4Yards per play6.7
27%Success rate44%
23%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays10
9First downs23
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers3
The read
Jaguars ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Jets: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.03Jaguars: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Jets: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.30Jaguars: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.32Jaguars: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 52 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 75 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Jaguars 6.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.8 pts in week 3 against +4.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.3% in week 3 against 9.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.4% in week 3 against 67.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jaguars10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 4.4 pts, 9.0 points above their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Bortles pass+6% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins to JAX 47 for 21 yards (33-J.Adams).
Q2 15:00 · Jaguars · 3rd & 7 at JAX 26 · gained 21 · +2.56 EP · +6.5% win probability
164 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 80 yards from the JAX 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
34%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.1757%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2981%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.7963%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.4329%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0367%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Drive ended6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jaguars 48
Jets0Jaguars3
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Jets 10
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 16
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 25
2nd quarter49 plays
Jets0Jaguars6
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jets 4
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jaguars 46
Jets0Jaguars12
Jets0Jaguars13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jets 31
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jaguars 49
Jets0Jaguars16
Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jets 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 36
3rd quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 44
Jets0Jaguars18
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 39
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 42
Intercepted4 plays
Jets3Jaguars18
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 9
Jets3Jaguars24
Jets3Jaguars25
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 35
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 47
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Jets6Jaguars25
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jaguars 20
Fumble lost2 plays
Jets12Jaguars25
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 2
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Jaguars 41
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jets 23
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 20
Jets12Jaguars31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jets 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -7.5
Closing total
40.5
Jets moneyline
+293
Jaguars moneyline
-335
Jaguars closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 43 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-east; 0.23 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Jets 10 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Doug Marrone
JAX +3% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins to JAX 47 for 21 yards (33-J.Adams).
1st · 15:00NYJ +3% win prob(15:00) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 29-B.Powell to NYJ 20 for -5 yards (39-T.Gipson). PENALTY on NYJ-61-S.Long, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 25 - No Play.
