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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Eagles185 of 199 plays carry both curves
(4:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor ran ob at 50 for 19 yards.
Swing +35.8 for TitansExpected points +3.18 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 184
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:51TEN +36% win prob(4:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor ran ob at 50 for 19 yards.
Overtime · 6:23PHI +35% win prob(6:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Overtime · 1:17TEN +30% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 33-D.Lewis to PHI 15 for 17 yards (31-J.Mills, 54-K.Grugier-Hill).
Overtime · 3:06TEN +29% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 14-N.Williams. PENALTY on PHI-22-S.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at PHI 44 - No Play.
Overtime · 0:17TEN +25% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:54PHI +20% win prob(1:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-D.Carter to TEN 39 for 42 yards (6-B.Kern).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Corey Davis's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:26Ryan Succop·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+30–3
4th9:22Ryan Succop·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+317–13
4th5:06Tajae Sharpe·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+717–20
4th0:21Jake Elliott·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+320–20
Overtime6:23Jake Elliott·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+323–20
Overtime0:17Corey Davis·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus MariotaLead never changed again+623–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryTitans
Eagles4–4Titans
432Total yards398
5.7Yards per play5.9
45%Success rate45%
33%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays6
24First downs19
4Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Titans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Eagles: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.08Titans: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Eagles: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Eagles: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.35Titans: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 76 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Titans’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Titans 4.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected, +9.1 pts, sat 16.8 points above their season number of −7.7 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.4 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 3 against 40.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.0 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.9% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 50.8% in week 3 against 72.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −3.7 pts in week 3 against +7.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Titans19.6%
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.1 pts, 16.8 points above their season mean of -7.7 pts and 2.4 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Mariota pass+36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor ran ob at 50 for 19 yards.
OT 4:51 · Titans · 4th & 15 at TEN 31 · gained 19 · +3.18 EP · +35.8% win probability
184 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 199 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 97 yards from the PHI 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
829
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1772%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0873%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.5577%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0258%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4760%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Eagles0Titans3
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Eagles 24
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Titans 47
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 47
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 37
The period ended11 plays, from the Titans 7 to the Titans 41
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Titans 48
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Eagles6Titans3
Eagles7Titans3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 3 to the Eagles 44
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Punt13 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Eagles10Titans3
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 9
3rd quarter33 plays
Eagles16Titans3
Eagles17Titans3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Titans 8
Eagles17Titans9
Eagles17Titans10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Eagles 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 38
4th quarter44 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Eagles17Titans13
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 11
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Eagles17Titans19
Eagles17Titans20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Eagles 9
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 42
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Eagles20Titans20
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Titans 12
The period ended3 plays
Overtime34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles23Titans20
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Titans 17
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Eagles23Titans26
Touchdown23 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Eagles 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
