2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee TitansWinner

PHI -3 upsetO 41.5 ✓Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:51, TEN +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 4:51PHI — TEN TEN ball · 4th & 15PHI 78%

(4:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor ran ob at 50 for 19 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 4:51TEN +36% win prob(4:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-T.Taylor ran ob at 50 for 19 yards.
OT · 6:23PHI +35% win prob(6:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
OT · 1:17TEN +30% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 33-D.Lewis to PHI 15 for 17 yards (31-J.Mills, 54-K.Grugier-Hill).
OT · 3:06TEN +29% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 14-N.Williams. PENALTY on PHI-22-S.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at PHI 44 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Titans
Offensive plays	76	67
Total yards	432 (edge)	398
Yards per play	5.7	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	45%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

33/50, 348 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

30/43, 344 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.1 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Jay AjayiRB

15 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

10 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

9/15 for 161 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

10/14 for 112 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	9	51	3:38	Turnover on downs
2	PHI	PHI 25	8	28	2:13	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 20	5	22	1:52	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 20	5	6	2:24	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 7	9	45	5:03	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 5	8	47	2:57	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 11	6	37	2:57	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 3	9	97	4:52	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 25	5	3	1:42	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 14	9	39	1:41	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 20	1	0	0:15	Interception
12	PHI	TEN 17	4	8	0:26	Turnover on downs
13	PHI	PHI 25	14	93	7:24	Touchdown
14	TEN	TEN 25	10	67	4:45	Touchdown
15	PHI	PHI 25	8	10	3:48	Fumble
16	TEN	PHI 35	8	20	4:45	Turnover on downs
17	PHI	PHI 25	5	4	1:23	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 25	6	75	2:54	Touchdown
19	PHI	PHI 25	7	17	2:11	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 20	4	7	1:09	Punt
21	PHI	TEN 39	6	27	1:25	Turnover on downs
22	TEN	TEN 25	2	0	0:16	Turnover on downs
23	PHI	PHI 25	10	56	3:41	Turnover on downs
24	TEN	TEN 25	17	71	6:14	Touchdown

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 97 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	33/50	348	2	0	4	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jay Ajayi	15	70	4.7	-1.4
Wendell Smallwood	5	39	7.8	0.9
Carson Wentz	2	8	4.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	10	14	112	0	28%	3.5
Alshon Jeffery	8	9	105	1	18%	11.0
Jordan Matthews	1	3	56	1	6%	2.9
Nelson Agholor	5	12	22	0	24%	-6.5
Wendell Smallwood	3	5	15	0	10%	0.0
Kamar Aiken	1	1	14	0	2%	1.0
Dallas Goedert	2	2	13	0	4%	0.0
Jay Ajayi	3	4	11	0	8%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Corey Graham	7	1	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	7	0	0.0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	5	2	0.0	1
Jordan Hicks	4	1	0.0	0
Haloti Ngata	3	1	1.0	0
Brandon Graham	2	2	0.0	0
Nigel Bradham	2	2	0.0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	2	1	0.0	0
Sidney Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Derek Barnett	2	1	1.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	30/43	344	2	1	3	10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marcus Mariota	10	46	4.6	1	0.8
Derrick Henry	8	24	3.0	0	-2.2
Dion Lewis	4	0	0.0	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	9	15	161	1	36%	5.2
Taywan Taylor	7	9	77	0	21%	2.8
Dion Lewis	9	9	66	0	21%	4.6
Tajae Sharpe	2	3	27	1	7%	4.4
Derrick Henry	2	2	7	0	5%	-0.6
Darius Jennings	1	2	6	0	5%	0.2
Jonnu Smith	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kevin Byard	8	2	0.0	0
Malcolm Butler	9	1	1.0	0
Jayon Brown	4	4	1.0	0
Logan Ryan	4	1	0.0	1
Jurrell Casey	3	2	0.0	0
Harold Landry	3	1	1.0	0
Will Compton	2	1	0.0	1
Brian Orakpo	2	1	0.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	0	0.0	0
Rashaan Evans	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -3
Closing total: 41.5
PHI moneyline: -146
TEN moneyline: +132

Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 49 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PHI 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Mike Vrabel