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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Seahawks160 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Swing −31.9 for CardinalsExpected points −0.93 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 2 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04ARI +32% win prob(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 1:55SEA +25% win prob(1:55) 4-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
4th · 9:07ARI +16% win prob(9:07) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 10-C.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-29-E.Thomas was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:02SEA +11% win prob(:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
3rd · 7:15ARI +10% win prob(7:15) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 14 for 15 yards (21-P.Peterson).
1st · 6:09SEA +9% win prob(6:09) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 26 for 1 yard (37-T.Flowers). FUMBLES (37-T.Flowers), RECOVERED by SEA-30-B.McDougald at ARI 26. 30-B.McDougald to ARI 26 for no gain (31-D.Johnson). Penalty on ARI-85-G.Holmes, Offensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sebastian Janikowski's 52-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:04Sebastian Janikowski·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks7–2Cardinals
331Total yards263
5.4Yards per play4.7
49%Success rate39%
0%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
17First downs15
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Seahawks: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.12Cardinals: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Seahawks: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.14Cardinals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Seahawks: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.41Cardinals: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 61 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Cardinals10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.2 pts, 6.6 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.0 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Sebastian Janikowski+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:04 · Seahawks · 4th & 4 at ARI 34 · gained nothing · +0.93 EP · +34.4% win probability
158 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
42%
Yards
594
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0445%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1054%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3742%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Cardinals 44
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 18
Seahawks6Cardinals0
Seahawks7Cardinals0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Cardinals 20
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
No good4 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 20
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Seahawks 26
2nd quarter52 plays
Seahawks7Cardinals3
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Seahawks 4
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 35
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 16
No good8 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 21
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Seahawks7Cardinals9
Seahawks7Cardinals10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 42 to the Seahawks 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 44
No good7 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 32
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks10Cardinals10
Field goal14 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Cardinals 14
Punt5 plays
Seahawks16Cardinals10
Seahawks17Cardinals10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 29
4th quarter43 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 44
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Seahawks17Cardinals16
Seahawks17Cardinals17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Seahawks 19
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 29
No good13 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Seahawks 27
Seahawks20Cardinals17
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Cardinals 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -3.5
Closing total
40
Seahawks moneyline
-192
Cardinals moneyline
+173
Seahawks closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40; the game landed 37 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Steve Wilks
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 10:45ARI +9% win prob(10:45) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to SEA 19 for 30 yards (54-B.Wagner).
4th · 5:10ARI +9% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 86-R.Seals-Jones pushed ob at SEA 42 for 21 yards (54-B.Wagner; 30-B.McDougald). ARI-86-R.Seals-Jones was injured during the play.
