2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Arizona Cardinals

SEA -3.5 no coverU 40 ✓DomeSeahawks closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, ARI +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04SEA — ARI SEA ball · 4th & 4SEA 68%

(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04ARI +32% win prob(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 · 1:55SEA +25% win prob(1:55) 4-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q4 · 9:07ARI +16% win prob(9:07) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 10-C.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-29-E.Thomas was injured during the play.
Q2 · 0:02SEA +11% win prob(:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Cardinals
Offensive plays	61	56
Total yards	331 (edge)	263
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	49% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	48%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	0/9	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

15/27, 180 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

19/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Mike DavisRB

21 att, 101 yds, 2 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

22 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

-9.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

5/6 for 53 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Ricky Seals-JonesTE

2/4 for 52 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 24	7	37	3:38	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 7	6	2	2:16	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 38	7	62	2:57	Touchdown
4	ARI	ARI 25	2	1	0:06	Fumble
5	SEA	ARI 26	4	6	1:29	Turnover on downs
6	ARI	ARI 28	13	68	5:30	Turnover on downs
7	SEA	SEA 26	5	9	2:11	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 15	4	1	2:28	Punt
9	SEA	ARI 48	7	24	4:01	Turnover on downs
10	ARI	ARI 42	7	36	3:32	Touchdown
11	SEA	SEA 25	9	30	1:22	Turnover on downs
12	ARI	50	4	13	0:30	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	ARI 30	5	9	2:15	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 22	14	66	7:46	Turnover on downs
15	ARI	ARI 25	5	0	1:40	Punt
16	SEA	ARI 47	6	39	2:19	Touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 24	6	4	1:57	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 19	5	20	2:25	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 20	6	80	2:39	Touchdown
20	SEA	SEA 22	5	7	1:48	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 24	12	49	5:21	Turnover on downs
22	SEA	SEA 35	7	31	1:50	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	19/26	172	0	0	2	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	21	101	4.8	2	2.3
Rashaad Penny	9	49	5.4	0	1.6
Russell Wilson	4	21	5.3	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	5	6	53	24%	1.6
Doug Baldwin	5	7	41	28%	0.2
David Moore	2	2	39	8%	3.1
Mike Davis	4	4	23	16%	0.1
Nick Vannett	1	2	6	8%	-1.4
Will Dissly	1	1	5	4%	-0.0
Brandon Marshall	1	3	5	12%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mychal Kendricks	4	2	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	3	3	0.0	1
Tre Flowers	6	0	0.0	0
Bradley McDougald	4	1	0.0	1
Jarran Reed	3	1	1.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	1	0.0	0
Earl Thomas	3	1	0.0	1
Justin Coleman	3	0	0.0	1
Branden Jackson	2	1	0.0	0
Barkevious Mingo	2	0	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	15/27	180	1	0	1	4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	22	71	3.2	1	-9.1
Josh Rosen	2	13	6.5	0	-0.3
Christian Kirk	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Chase Edmonds	3	1	0.3	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ricky Seals-Jones	2	4	52	0	16%	1.1
David Johnson	3	4	41	0	16%	2.4
Christian Kirk	4	5	28	0	20%	2.2
Larry Fitzgerald	3	7	28	0	28%	1.0
Chad Williams	1	3	22	1	12%	0.9
Derrick Coleman	1	1	5	0	4%	0.2
J.J. Nelson	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Tre Boston	11	0	0.0
Antoine Bethea	6	1	0.0
Deone Bucannon	6	0	0.0
Budda Baker	5	0	0.0
Patrick Peterson	5	0	0.0
Bene' Benwikere	4	0	0.0
Robert Nkemdiche	4	0	0.0
Josh Bynes	4	0	0.0
Ezekiel Turner	3	0	0.0
Chandler Jones	3	0	1.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3.5
Closing total: 40
SEA moneyline: -192
ARI moneyline: +173

Seahawks closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40; the game landed 37 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: SEA 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Steve Wilks

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.