For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Los Angeles Chargers 29. Final.
Chargers -10 no coverO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers 29, 49ers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:38, 2nd and 6, on Isaac Rochell — 20.3 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:38 · 2nd and 6
Isaac Rochell
Chargers
(2:38) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 46-A.Morris INTERCEPTED by 98-I.Rochell [33-D.James] at SF 23. 98-I.Rochell to SF 19 for 4 yards (58-W.Richburg).
Chargers closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Chargers 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:38, Chargers +20.3% win probability on one snap.
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trevor WilliamsChargersQ3 9:00(9:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 88-G.Celek INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Williams at LAC 2. 24-T.Williams to SF 12 for 86 yards (15-P.Garcon).
14.3pts
George Kittle49ersQ3 2:58(2:58) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane].
13.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against 49ers at 6 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 12 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 13 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on 49ers163 of 171 plays carry both curves
(2:38) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 46-A.Morris INTERCEPTED by 98-I.Rochell [33-D.James] at SF 23. 98-I.Rochell to SF 19 for 4 yards (58-W.Richburg).
Swing +20.3 for ChargersExpected points +4.98 for ChargersThe model had 49ers 6 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:38SF +20% win prob(2:38) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 46-A.Morris INTERCEPTED by 98-I.Rochell [33-D.James] at SF 23. 98-I.Rochell to SF 19 for 4 yards (58-W.Richburg).
3rd · 9:00SF +14% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 88-G.Celek INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Williams at LAC 2. 24-T.Williams to SF 12 for 86 yards (15-P.Garcon).
3rd · 2:58LAC +14% win prob(2:58) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane].
1st · 14:12SF +13% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Exum at LAC 32. 38-A.Exum for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:48LAC +9% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 85-A.Gates for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:12LAC +8% win prob(13:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-47-M.Windt. 18-D.Pettis to SF 14 for -3 yards (57-J.Brown). SF-18-D.Pettis was injured during the play. He is Out.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Caleb Sturgis's 21-yard field goal with 7:44 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th12:43Robbie Gould·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+327–26
4th7:44Caleb Sturgis·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder D.Kaser · snap M.WindtLead never changed again+327–29
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryChargers
49ers2–6Chargers
364Total yards374
6.2Yards per play5.8
44%Success rate46%
42%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
18First downs21
1Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.00Chargers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.03Chargers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.03Chargers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Chargers’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Chargers 6.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected, +11.7 pts, sat 14.6 points above their season number of −2.9 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.4 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 3.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.9% in week 3 against 21.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.0% in week 3 against 7.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 3 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chargers21.4%
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.7 pts, 14.6 points above their season mean of -2.9 pts and 2.4 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
53 dressed · 9 never used
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%60 snaps
—Michael PersonG · Every snap100%60 snaps
58Weston RichburgC · Every snap100%60 snaps
3C.J. BeathardQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Full-time95%57 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time83%50 snaps
15Pierre GarconWR · Full-time82%49 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Heavy rotation63%38 snaps
76Garry GilliamOT · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykRB · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
11Marquise GoodwinWR · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
81Trent TaylorWR · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational42%25 snaps
74Joe StaleyT · Rotational38%23 snaps
88Garrett CelekTE · Rotational28%17 snaps
46Alfred MorrisRB · Situational23%14 snaps
62Erik MagnusonOT · Situational5%3 snaps
90Earl MitchellNT · Situational2%1 snap
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Mike PersonCRichard ShermanCBJullian TaylorDTJaquiski TarttFSNajee ToranGJoshua GarnettOGNick MullensQBShon ColemanTRichie JamesWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Beathard pass−27% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 88-G.Celek INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Williams at LAC 2. 24-T.Williams to SF 12 for 86 yards (15-P.Garcon).
Q3 9:00 · 49ers · 1st & goal at LAC 8 · gained nothing · -10.57 EP · −26.7% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
41%
Yards
734
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0466%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27+0.4248%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.2488%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1225%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.32100%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
49ers6Chargers0
Touchdown4 plays
49ers7Chargers0
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 28
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 17
No good10 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the 49ers 36
49ers13Chargers0
49ers14Chargers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the Chargers 2
49ers14Chargers6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the 49ers 4
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
49ers17Chargers6
Field goal21 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Chargers 3
49ers17Chargers12
49ers17Chargers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the 49ers 22
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 33
49ers17Chargers17
Field goal3 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the 49ers 30
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the 49ers 32
49ers17Chargers23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the 49ers 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the Chargers 8
49ers17Chargers26
Field goal4 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the 49ers 7
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 45
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
49ers23Chargers26
49ers24Chargers26
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the 49ers 18
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 40
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the 49ers 45
4th quarter37 plays
49ers27Chargers26
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Chargers 15
49ers27Chargers29
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the 49ers 3
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 24
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the 49ers 37
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 7 to the 49ers 31
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -10
Closing total
46
49ers moneyline
+368
Chargers moneyline
-428
Chargers closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 56 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
StubHub Center
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
49ers 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Anthony Lynn
1st · 6:29LAC +8% win prob(6:29) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle to 11-M.Goodwin to LAC 24 for 20 yards (24-T.Williams) [93-D.Philon]. PENALTY on LAC-93-D.Philon, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at LAC 24.
4th · 3:57SF +8% win prob(3:57) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to SF 7, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-30-A.Ekeler.
