2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · StubHub Center

San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -10 no coverO 46 ✓Chargers closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Chargers 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:38, SF +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:38SF — LAC SF ball · 2nd & 6LAC 73%

(2:38) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 46-A.Morris INTERCEPTED by 98-I.Rochell [33-D.James] at SF 23. 98-I.Rochell to SF 19 for 4 yards (58-W.Richburg).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:38SF +20% win prob(2:38) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 46-A.Morris INTERCEPTED by 98-I.Rochell [33-D.James] at SF 23. 98-I.Rochell to SF 19 for 4 yards (58-W.Richburg).
Q3 · 9:00SF +14% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left intended for 88-G.Celek INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Williams at LAC 2. 24-T.Williams to SF 12 for 86 yards (15-P.Garcon).
Q3 · 2:58LAC +14% win prob(2:58) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane].
Q1 · 14:12SF +13% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Exum at LAC 32. 38-A.Exum for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Chargers
Offensive plays	59	65
Total yards	364	374 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	-0.07	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	44%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

23/37, 298 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.8 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

25/39, 250 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

15 att, 104 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

9 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

6/8 for 125 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

7/10 for 63 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	4	0	0:57	Defensive touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 25	5	3	1:07	Punt
3	SF	SF 14	4	8	1:24	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 37	9	27	4:31	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 44	7	44	3:08	Touchdown
6	LAC	LAC 25	9	71	3:10	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 25	22	78	10:44	Turnover on downs
8	LAC	LAC 25	11	77	4:12	Touchdown
9	SF	SF 25	5	8	0:34	Punt
10	LAC	SF 32	3	2	0:13	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 29	5	-7	1:37	Punt
12	LAC	LAC 49	7	51	2:48	Touchdown
13	SF	SF 10	6	60	1:53	Interception
14	LAC	SF 12	4	5	0:58	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 24	5	9	1:50	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 25	5	12	2:17	Punt
17	SF	SF 16	3	84	0:47	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	7	15	1:43	Punt
19	SF	SF 36	9	49	3:28	Turnover on downs
20	LAC	LAC 25	10	72	4:58	Turnover on downs
21	SF	SF 17	5	7	0:51	Fumble
22	LAC	LAC 39	5	24	3:01	Punt
23	SF	SF 7	3	24	1:18	Interception
24	LAC	SF 19	5	15	2:31	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	23/37	298	2	2	1	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Matt Breida	9	39	4.3	-0.3
C.J. Beathard	7	19	2.7	-1.8
Alfred Morris	4	14	3.5	-0.1
Marquise Goodwin	1	4	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	6	8	125	1	22%	10.5
Pierre Garcon	4	7	52	0	19%	0.6
Kendrick Bourne	3	4	34	1	11%	3.7
Matt Breida	3	3	32	0	8%	0.2
Marquise Goodwin	2	4	24	0	11%	1.8
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	15	0	8%	0.4
Trent Taylor	2	3	12	0	8%	-0.2
Alfred Morris	1	3	4	0	8%	-5.5
Garrett Celek	0	1	0	0	3%	-10.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Fred Warner	4	6	0	0
K'Waun Williams	6	0	0	0
Reuben Foster	4	2	0	0
Arik Armstead	1	4	0	0
Malcolm Smith	1	4	0	0
Greg Mabin	3	1	0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	4	0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	1	2	0	0
Antone Exum	2	0	1	3
DeForest Buckner	1	1	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	25/39	250	3	1	1	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	15	104	6.9	1.8
Austin Ekeler	8	25	3.1	-3.2
Philip Rivers	4	-3	-0.8	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	7	10	63	0	26%	-7.9
Melvin Gordon	7	10	55	1	26%	2.7
Tyrell Williams	3	5	48	0	13%	3.5
Austin Ekeler	2	3	31	1	8%	3.5
Antonio Gates	2	4	27	1	11%	0.3
Mike Williams	1	3	15	0	8%	-0.7
Virgil Green	2	2	9	0	5%	1.1
Travis Benjamin	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jatavis Brown	7	2	0.0	0	1
Derwin James	5	2	1.0	0	2
Trevor Williams	4	1	0.0	1	1
Damion Square	3	2	0.0	0	1
Denzel Perryman	2	2	0.0	0	1
Casey Hayward	4	0	0.0	0	2
Jahleel Addae	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Emanuel	2	0	0.0	0	0
Darius Philon	2	0	0.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -10
Closing total: 46
SF moneyline: +368
LAC moneyline: -428

Chargers closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 56 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: StubHub Center
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: SF 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Anthony Lynn