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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Buccaneers159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(12:27) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 80-T.Burton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.4 for BearsExpected points +3.26 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:27CHI +8% win prob(12:27) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 80-T.Burton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:05TB +6% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 27 for -10 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
1st · 2:18CHI +5% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson II for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:27CHI +4% win prob(1:27) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at CHI 17 for 48 yards (23-K.Fuller).
1st · 14:35CHI +4% win prob(14:35) 24-J.Howard right guard to CHI 34 for 4 yards (97-V.Curry).
1st · 9:28CHI +3% win prob(9:28) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to TB 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Jackson to TB 29 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on TB-22-M.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.
2nd · 13:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trey Burton's 39-yard touchdown catch with 12:27 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th6:28Cody Parkey·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+310–48
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBears
Buccaneers0–9Bears
311Total yards485
5.2Yards per play8.7
40%Success rate63%
25%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns5
3Explosive plays13
15First downs25
4Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.92 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.46Bears: +0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Buccaneers: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.92Bears: +0.92 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Buccaneers: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 60 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Bears’s 56 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Bears 6.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 81.0% in week 3 against 63.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.0% in week 3 against 14.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bears14.0%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 43.9 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 1.5 times their own 29.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
53 dressed · 7 never used
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%63 snaps
69Demar DotsonOT · Every snap100%63 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%63 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%63 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time90%57 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
77Caleb BenenochT · Heavy rotation65%41 snaps
11DeSean JacksonWR · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Heavy rotation59%37 snaps
3Jameis WinstonQB · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
12Chris GodwinWR · Rotational49%31 snaps
25Peyton BarberRB · Rotational49%31 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Rotational44%28 snaps
62Evan SmithG · Rotational35%22 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Rotational32%20 snaps
82Antony AuclairTE · Rotational30%19 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Situational24%15 snaps
32Jacquizz RodgersRB · Situational17%11 snaps
45Alan CrossTE · Situational5%3 snaps
17Justin WatsonWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Jordan WhiteheadDBNoah SpenceDEBeau AllenDTMichael LiedtkeGAlex CappaGRyan GriffinQBShaun WilsonRB
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 7 never used
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Cody WhitehairC · Every snap100%61 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Full-time97%59 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Full-time97%59 snaps
75Kyle LongOG · Full-time95%58 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time87%53 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Heavy rotation79%48 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Heavy rotation74%45 snaps
64Eric KushOG · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation54%33 snaps
88Dion SimsTE · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Rotational48%29 snaps
11Kevin WhiteWR · Rotational46%28 snaps
68James DanielsC · Rotational44%27 snaps
84Ben BrauneckerTE · Situational20%12 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Situational15%9 snaps
46Michael BurtonFB · Situational11%7 snaps
30Benny CunninghamRB · Situational7%4 snaps
85Daniel BrownTE · Situational5%3 snaps
79Bradley SowellT · Situational5%3 snaps
4Chase DanielQB · Situational5%3 snaps
83Javon WimsWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Prince AmukamaraCBMarcus CooperCBNick WilliamsDTIsaiah IrvingLBKylie FittsLBRashaad CowardOTAnthony MillerWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:27) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 80-T.Burton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:27 · Bears · 1st & 10 at TB 39 · gained 39 · +3.26 EP · +8.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 79 yards from the TB 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
49%
Yards
794
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1868%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3344%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.5443%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0669%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+1.03100%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Buccaneers0Bears6
Buccaneers0Bears7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Buccaneers 39
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 39
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 38
Buccaneers0Bears13
Buccaneers0Bears14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Buccaneers 14
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Bears 12
2nd quarter57 plays
Buccaneers3Bears14
Field goal1 play
Buccaneers3Bears20
Buccaneers3Bears21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Buccaneers 4
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers3Bears27
Buccaneers3Bears28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Buccaneers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
Buccaneers3Bears34
Buccaneers3Bears35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Buccaneers 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 14
Buccaneers3Bears38
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Buccaneers 32
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 48
Buccaneers3Bears44
Buccaneers3Bears45
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Buccaneers 3
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 48
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 24
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Bears 34
4th quarter32 plays
Buccaneers9Bears45
Buccaneers10Bears45
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Bears 16
Buccaneers10Bears48
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Buccaneers 28
Intercepted12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 33
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
