2018 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 30, 2018 · Soldier Field

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chicago BearsWinner

CHI -3 ✓O 46 ✓Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 38.

Chicago Bears 48–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:27, CHI +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:27TB — CHI CHI ball · 1st & 10CHI 63%

(12:27) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 80-T.Burton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:27CHI +8% win prob(12:27) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 80-T.Burton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:05TB +6% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 27 for -10 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
Q1 · 2:18CHI +5% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson II for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:27CHI +4% win prob(1:27) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at CHI 17 for 48 yards (23-K.Fuller).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Bears
Offensive plays	60	56
Total yards	311	485 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	8.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.46 (edge)
Success rate	40%	63% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.92 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	4/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

19/26, 354 yds, 6 TD, 0 INT

23.3 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

16/20, 145 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

1.9 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Tarik CohenRB

13 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

10 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Tarik CohenRB

7/8 for 121 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

DeSean JacksonWR

5/8 for 112 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	8	75	2:40	Touchdown
2	TB	TB 25	5	0	1:31	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 34	4	-12	1:31	Punt
4	TB	TB 14	7	24	3:33	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 27	8	68	3:34	Touchdown
6	TB	TB 28	7	60	2:16	Turnover on downs
7	CHI	CHI 23	6	77	2:34	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 25	5	-3	1:36	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 27	5	68	1:46	Touchdown
10	TB	TB 25	5	3	0:51	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 30	7	70	3:12	Touchdown
12	TB	TB 25	7	61	2:39	Interception
13	CHI	CHI 9	10	54	2:17	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 25	8	27	3:55	Interception
15	CHI	CHI 40	5	31	0:37	Touchdown
16	TB	TB 25	9	27	4:58	Punt
17	CHI	CHI 17	4	7	1:26	Punt
18	TB	TB 21	12	65	5:34	Touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 25	12	47	7:07	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 25	10	47	5:01	Interception
21	CHI	CHI 45	2	0	1:22	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 77 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	16/20	145	1	2	2	1.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	9/18	126	0	1	2	-6.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ronald Jones	10	29	2.9	-1.7
Peyton Barber	7	24	3.4	-2.1
Jameis Winston	1	7	7.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeSean Jackson	5	8	112	0	21%	0.8
Mike Evans	6	9	59	0	24%	1.7
Adam Humphries	6	7	36	0	18%	0.4
Cameron Brate	3	4	29	1	11%	-1.1
Chris Godwin	2	2	22	0	5%	3.8
Antony Auclair	1	1	8	0	3%	0.3
Peyton Barber	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.3
O.J. Howard	0	3	0	0	8%	-3.0
Ronald Jones	1	2	-1	0	5%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jason Pierre-Paul	6	1	1.0	0
Lavonte David	7	0	0.0	0
Isaiah Johnson	5	0	0.0	0
Brent Grimes	4	0	0.0	0
Justin Evans	3	1	0.0	0
Vinny Curry	2	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	3	0	0.0	0
Adarius Taylor	2	0	0.0	0
Kwon Alexander	2	0	0.0	1
Carl Nassib	1	1	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	19/26	354	6	0	1	23.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	3	53	17.7	4.8
Tarik Cohen	13	53	4.1	0.3
Jordan Howard	11	25	2.3	-2.8
Taylor Gabriel	1	10	10.0	0.7
Benny Cunningham	1	0	0.0	-0.4
Chase Daniel	2	-2	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tarik Cohen	7	8	121	1	31%	7.6
Taylor Gabriel	7	7	104	2	27%	10.5
Trey Burton	2	4	86	1	15%	6.0
Allen Robinson	2	4	23	1	15%	0.3
Josh Bellamy	1	1	20	1	4%	2.4
Jordan Howard	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Javon Wims	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kevin Toliver	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	4	0	0.0	0	0
Bryce Callahan	4	0	0.0	0	0
Bilal Nichols	3	1	0.5	0	0
Roquan Smith	3	1	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	2	2	0.0	1	2
Roy Robertson-Harris	0	3	0.5	0	0
Aaron Lynch	3	0	1.0	1	1
Khalil Mack	2	1	1.0	0	1
Eddie Jackson	3	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -3
Closing total: 46
TB moneyline: +126
CHI moneyline: -140

Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 38.

Total closed 46; the game landed 58 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: TB 6 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs Matt Nagy