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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 28 at San Francisco 49ers 18. Final.
49ers -3 upsetO 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Arizona Cardinals 28, 49ers 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:41, 2nd and 11, on C.J. Beathard — 37.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:41 · 2nd and 11
C.J. Beathard
Cardinals
(4:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by ARI-57-J.Bynes at SF 23. 57-J.Bynes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Total sack loss is 18-yds.
49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 28–18. Biggest swing: Q4 4:41, Cardinals +37.7% win probability on one snap.
37.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian KirkCardinalsQ1 9:49(9:49) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 22. 22-YAC
15.3pts
Raheem MostertCardinalsQ2 13:27(13:27) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert right tackle to ARI 39 for 1 yard (95-R.Gunter). FUMBLES (95-R.Gunter), RECOVERED by ARI-21-P.Peterson at ARI 33. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at SF 18 for 49 yards (3-C.Beathard). 1-yd. rush for Mostert, 6-yds. loose ball yardage.
24.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 5 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 17 on third down, against Cardinals at 2 of 10 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Cardinals183 of 195 plays carry both curves
(4:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by ARI-57-J.Bynes at SF 23. 57-J.Bynes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Total sack loss is 18-yds.
Swing −37.7 for 49ersExpected points −8.20 for 49ersThe model had Cardinals 4 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:41ARI +38% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by ARI-57-J.Bynes at SF 23. 57-J.Bynes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Total sack loss is 18-yds.
2nd · 13:27ARI +24% win prob(13:27) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert right tackle to ARI 39 for 1 yard (95-R.Gunter). FUMBLES (95-R.Gunter), RECOVERED by ARI-21-P.Peterson at ARI 33. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at SF 18 for 49 yards (3-C.Beathard). 1-yd. rush for Mostert, 6-yds. loose ball yardage.
1st · 9:49SF +15% win prob(9:49) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 22. 22-YAC
3rd · 8:54ARI +15% win prob(8:54) 3-C.Beathard sacked at ARI 46 for -7 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones), RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 46. 55-C.Jones to ARI 46 for no gain (3-C.Beathard).
4th · 10:01SF +14% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at ARI 14 for 45 yards (41-A.Bethea). Caught at SF 37. 49-YAC
4th · 6:59SF +14% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian Kirk's 75-yard touchdown catch with 9:49 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th1:29C.J. Beathard·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+628–18
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
Cardinals3–649ers
223Total yards447
5.0Yards per play4.7
36%Success rate45%
20%Third-down rate59%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays10
9First downs35
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers5
The read
49ers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Cardinals: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.1749ers: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Cardinals: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.0949ers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Cardinals: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.3249ers: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 45 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against 49ers’s 95 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, 49ers 3.
Note49ers outgained Cardinals 447-223 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.7 pts in week 4 against −4.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
92 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
49ers16.0%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 21.3% — and ARI swings 24.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
53 dressed · 8 never used
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%51 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesOT · Every snap100%51 snaps
64Mason ColeC · Every snap100%51 snaps
3Josh RosenQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Full-time94%48 snaps
76Mike IupatiOG · Full-time86%44 snaps
11Larry FitzgeraldWR · Full-time82%42 snaps
10Chad WilliamsWR · Full-time80%41 snaps
71Andre SmithT · Heavy rotation67%34 snaps
86Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Heavy rotation67%34 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation63%32 snaps
84Jermaine GreshamTE · Heavy rotation55%28 snaps
73John WetzelT · Rotational33%17 snaps
85Gabe HolmesTE · Rotational25%13 snaps
32Derrick ColemanFB · Situational18%9 snaps
62Daniel MunyerC · Situational14%7 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Situational6%3 snaps
29Chase EdmondsRB · Situational6%3 snaps
14J.J. NelsonWR · Situational4%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Markus GoldenDERobert NkemdicheDTJeremy VujnovichGBlaine ClausellOTSam BradfordQBMike GlennonQBT.J. LoganRBKorey CunninghamT
San Francisco 49ers
53 dressed · 9 never used
—Michael PersonG · Every snap100%98 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%98 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%98 snaps
74Joe StaleyT · Every snap100%98 snaps
3C.J. BeathardQB · Every snap100%98 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time89%87 snaps
58Weston RichburgC · Full-time87%85 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykRB · Heavy rotation69%68 snaps
15Pierre GarconWR · Heavy rotation63%62 snaps
17Victor BoldenWR · Heavy rotation58%57 snaps
81Trent TaylorWR · Heavy rotation51%50 snaps
46Alfred MorrisRB · Rotational45%44 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational43%42 snaps
88Garrett CelekTE · Rotational27%26 snaps
13Richie JamesWR · Situational24%24 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational13%13 snaps
62Erik MagnusonOT · Situational13%13 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Situational13%13 snaps
89Cole WickTE · Situational4%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Mike PersonCJullian TaylorDTD.J. JonesDTJimmie WardFSJoshua GarnettOGNick MullensQBShon ColemanTDante PettisWRMarquise GoodwinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Beathard sacked−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by ARI-57-J.Bynes at SF 23. 57-J.Bynes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Total sack loss is 18-yds.
Q4 4:41 · 49ers · 2nd & 11 at SF 41 · lost 18 · -8.20 EP · −35.5% win probability
181 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 83 yards from the SF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
39%
Yards
667
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1679%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31-0.1248%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.3171%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0457%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4450%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.7633%
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.520%
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
49ers0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Cardinals049ers6
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Cardinals649ers6
Cardinals749ers6
Touchdown3 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 35
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the 49ers 40
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the 49ers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the 49ers 45
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 46
2nd quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the Cardinals 40
Cardinals1349ers6
Cardinals1449ers6
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 2
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 29
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Cardinals 49
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 6 to the Cardinals 13
Punt11 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Cardinals 41
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the 49ers 41
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost9 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the Cardinals 39
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the 49ers 39
The period ended13 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the Cardinals 25
4th quarter67 plays
No good2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the 49ers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Cardinals1449ers12
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown16 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Cardinals2049ers12
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the 49ers 42
Cardinals2149ers12
Intercepted6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 36
Cardinals2749ers12
Cardinals2849ers12
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 6
Cardinals2849ers18
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3
Closing total
40.5
Cardinals moneyline
+146
49ers moneyline
-161
49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 46 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(6:59) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 81-T.Taylor for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:22SF +10% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk pushed ob at ARI 1 for 8 yards (23-B.Benwikere). Caught ARI 5. 4-YAC
2nd · 13:58SF +10% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 40 for 17 yards (33-T.Boston). Caught at ARI 45. 5-YAC
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
Cardinals0
49ers6
