2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -3 upsetO 40.5 ✓15 mph wind49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 28–18. Biggest swing: Q4 4:41, ARI +38% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:41ARI — SF SF ball · 2nd & 11ARI 53%

(4:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by ARI-57-J.Bynes at SF 23. 57-J.Bynes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Total sack loss is 18-yds.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:41ARI +38% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by ARI-57-J.Bynes at SF 23. 57-J.Bynes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Total sack loss is 18-yds.
Q2 · 13:27ARI +24% win prob(13:27) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert right tackle to ARI 39 for 1 yard (95-R.Gunter). FUMBLES (95-R.Gunter), RECOVERED by ARI-21-P.Peterson at ARI 33. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at SF 18 for 49 yards (3-C.Beathard). 1-yd. rush for Mostert, 6-yds. loose ball yardage.
Q1 · 9:49SF +15% win prob(9:49) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 22. 22-YAC
Q3 · 8:54ARI +15% win prob(8:54) 3-C.Beathard sacked at ARI 46 for -7 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones), RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 46. 55-C.Jones to ARI 46 for no gain (3-C.Beathard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	45	95
Total yards	223	447 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	-0.14 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	36%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	2/10	10/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	35 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	5

49ers outgained Cardinals 447–223 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

34/54, 349 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-6.2 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

10/25, 170 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.5 expected points added · -18.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Alfred MorrisRB

18 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

8 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

3/4 for 85 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

5/7 for 83 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	10	74	5:11	Touchdown
2	ARI	ARI 25	3	75	0:10	Touchdown
3	SF	SF 31	3	4	1:18	Interception
4	ARI	SF 43	4	3	1:00	Punt
5	SF	SF 5	5	6	1:50	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 39	6	16	2:31	Punt
7	SF	SF 10	8	66	4:42	Fumble
8	ARI	SF 18	5	18	2:18	Touchdown
9	SF	SF 25	5	1	1:29	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 28	4	11	1:53	Punt
11	SF	SF 36	7	13	2:15	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 6	4	7	1:37	Punt
13	SF	SF 36	9	28	3:03	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 20	5	39	0:43	End of half
15	ARI	ARI 25	5	2	1:57	Punt
16	SF	SF 19	9	35	4:17	Fumble
17	ARI	ARI 46	7	15	2:27	Punt
18	SF	SF 10	13	63	6:27	Turnover on downs
19	ARI	ARI 35	6	8	2:15	Punt
20	SF	SF 17	15	88	5:46	Touchdown
21	ARI	ARI 25	5	3	1:01	Punt
22	SF	SF 32	3	-9	1:17	Defensive touchdown
23	SF	SF 25	6	2	0:45	Interception
24	ARI	SF 26	6	26	0:27	Touchdown
25	SF	SF 24	12	76	1:52	Touchdown
26	ARI	SF 46	4	0	1:29	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	10/25	170	1	0	1	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	18	55	3.1	2	-2.3
Christian Kirk	1	5	5.0	0	0.6
Chase Edmonds	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9
Josh Rosen	3	-3	-1.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	3	4	85	1	17%	3.3
Larry Fitzgerald	2	3	35	0	13%	0.9
Chad Williams	2	6	23	0	26%	-1.5
David Johnson	2	3	16	0	13%	-0.4
Jermaine Gresham	1	1	11	0	4%	1.5
Ricky Seals-Jones	0	5	0	0	22%	-4.5
Chase Edmonds	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Budda Baker	8	5	1.0	0	1
Antoine Bethea	8	4	0.0	0	0
Josh Bynes	6	2	1.0	0	1
Haason Reddick	6	0	1.0	0	2
Patrick Peterson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Tre Boston	5	0	0.0	1	3
Bene' Benwikere	2	3	0.0	1	1
Chandler Jones	5	0	1.0	0	1
Olsen Pierre	2	1	0.0	0	0
Benson Mayowa	1	2	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	34/54	349	2	2	4	-6.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alfred Morris	18	61	3.4	0	-3.5
Matt Breida	8	56	7.0	0	1.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	12	12.0	0	1.0
Raheem Mostert	5	11	2.2	0	-9.4
C.J. Beathard	2	7	3.5	1	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	5	7	83	0	13%	4.8
Kyle Juszczyk	6	7	75	0	13%	7.3
Trent Taylor	7	8	61	1	15%	5.7
Pierre Garcon	5	13	47	0	24%	-4.6
Kendrick Bourne	4	7	33	0	13%	-0.1
Alfred Morris	3	4	30	0	7%	2.3
Victor Bolden	1	4	10	0	7%	-2.8
Richie James	1	1	7	0	2%	0.2
Matt Breida	1	1	5	1	2%	1.5
Cole Wick	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.2
Raheem Mostert	1	1	-2	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Malcolm Smith	1	2	0.0
Cassius Marsh	2	1	1.0
Ahkello Witherspoon	3	0	0.0
C.J. Beathard	2	0	0.0
Fred Warner	2	0	0.0
Earl Mitchell	1	1	0.0
K'Waun Williams	1	1	0.0
Mark Nzeocha	2	0	0.0
Jaquiski Tartt	1	1	0.0
Arik Armstead	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3
Closing total: 40.5
ARI moneyline: +146
SF moneyline: -161

49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 46 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: ARI 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.