2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Heinz Field

Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -3.5 ✓O 57 ✓Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Pittsburgh Steelers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:29, PIT +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:29ATL — PIT ATL ball · 1st & 10PIT 88%

(11:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:29PIT +13% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:30ATL +12% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee [50-B.Reed] at ATL -8. Touchback.
Q3 · 6:41PIT +11% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 30-J.Conner pushed ob at ATL 26 for 28 yards (27-D.Kazee).
Q2 · 3:00ATL +8% win prob(3:00) 76-C.Okorafor reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner right guard to PIT 34 for no gain (50-B.Reed, 36-K.Ishmael).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Steelers
Offensive plays	70	57
Total yards	324	384 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.27 (edge)
Success rate	39%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.41 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	9/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	18	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

26/38, 285 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

19/29, 250 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

10.4 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

21 att, 110 yds, 2 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Devonta FreemanRB

8 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Antonio BrownWR

6/13 for 101 yds, 2 TD

45% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Austin HooperTE

9/12 for 77 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 22	10	78	4:16	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 23	11	37	5:29	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 3	12	54	4:38	Touchdown
4	ATL	ATL 25	10	75	4:16	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 25	5	6	1:02	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 21	13	30	5:56	Turnover on downs
7	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	2:12	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 11	4	8	0:29	Punt
9	PIT	ATL 40	6	33	1:24	Interception
10	ATL	ATL 20	3	44	0:18	End of half
11	ATL	ATL 25	8	18	4:12	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 15	13	90	7:06	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 21	5	1	1:05	Punt
14	PIT	ATL 18	4	16	0:58	Touchdown
15	ATL	ATL 25	11	60	4:11	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 25	7	75	2:47	Touchdown
17	ATL	ATL 25	7	32	1:42	Turnover on downs
18	PIT	PIT 48	7	23	4:03	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 2	3	0	0:21	Defensive touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 25	9	19	2:53	Turnover on downs
21	PIT	ATL 44	1	0	0:42	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	26/38	285	1	0	6	-1.8
Matt Schaub	5/7	20	0	0	0	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devonta Freeman	8	32	4.0	0	-2.0
Tevin Coleman	7	15	2.1	0	-1.4
Matt Ryan	1	10	10.0	0	2.1
Ito Smith	3	5	1.7	1	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	9	12	77	0	27%	4.2
Mohamed Sanu	4	7	73	1	16%	3.3
Julio Jones	5	9	62	0	20%	1.5
Calvin Ridley	4	5	38	0	11%	3.8
Marvin Hall	2	3	25	0	7%	-0.6
Tevin Coleman	2	2	15	0	4%	1.8
Devonta Freeman	2	2	9	0	4%	-1.0
Eric Saubert	1	2	8	0	4%	-2.4
Ito Smith	1	1	5	0	2%	0.2
Ricky Ortiz	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Matt Schaub	1	1	-7	0	2%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordan Richards	3	2	0	0
Damontae Kazee	4	1	1	1
Deadrin Senat	1	4	0	0
Brooks Reed	3	1	0	0
Robert Alford	2	1	0	0
Desmond Trufant	3	0	0	2
Michael Bennett	2	1	0	0
Duke Riley	2	1	0	0
Brian Poole	2	0	0	0
Takk McKinley	1	1	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	19/29	250	3	1	0	10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	21	110	5.2	2	5.4
Ben Roethlisberger	2	16	8.0	0	2.2
Stevan Ridley	5	8	1.6	0	-2.5
Joshua Dobbs	1	-3	-3.0	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	6	13	101	2	45%	0.5
James Conner	4	4	75	0	14%	6.9
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	4	34	1	14%	3.7
Jesse James	2	2	20	0	7%	1.7
Xavier Grimble	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Vance McDonald	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.6
Ryan Switzer	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2
James Washington	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
T.J. Watt	6	2	3.0
Bud Dupree	3	3	0.0
Tyler Matakevich	3	2	0.0
Sean Davis	3	2	0.0
Terrell Edmunds	3	2	0.0
L.J. Fort	5	0	1.0
Joe Haden	5	0	0.0
Cameron Sutton	4	0	0.0
Jon Bostic	2	2	0.5
Anthony Chickillo	1	2	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3.5
Closing total: 57
ATL moneyline: +162
PIT moneyline: -180

Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 57; the game landed 58 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: ATL 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Mike Tomlin