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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 17 at Pittsburgh Steelers 41. Final.
Steelers -3.5 ✓O 57 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Pittsburgh Steelers 41, Falcons 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 11:29, 1st and 10, on Mohamed Sanu — 13.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:29 · 1st and 10
Mohamed Sanu
Falcons
(11:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Pittsburgh Steelers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:29, Falcons +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Damontae KazeeFalconsQ2 0:30(:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee [50-B.Reed] at ATL -8. Touchback.
11.6pts
James ConnerSteelersQ3 6:41(6:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 30-J.Conner pushed ob at ATL 26 for 28 yards (27-D.Kazee).
11.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 9 of 12 on third down, against Falcons at 6 of 14 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Falcons165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(11:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.0 for SteelersExpected points −3.94 for SteelersThe model had Falcons 6 points higher than the market did.play 48
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:29PIT +13% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:30ATL +12% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee [50-B.Reed] at ATL -8. Touchback.
3rd · 6:41PIT +11% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 30-J.Conner pushed ob at ATL 26 for 28 yards (27-D.Kazee).
2nd · 3:00ATL +8% win prob(3:00) 76-C.Okorafor reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner right guard to PIT 34 for no gain (50-B.Reed, 36-K.Ishmael).
1st · 0:43PIT +7% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:07PIT +7% win prob(8:07) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to PIT 41 for 7 yards (23-J.Haden) [90-T.Watt]. PENALTY on PIT-90-T.Watt, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 41.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Conner's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:51 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:51James Conner·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+60–6
1st0:43JuJu Smith-Schuster·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+70–13
2nd11:29Mohamed Sanu·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+77–13
2nd5:07Matt Bryant·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+310–13
3rd3:46Antonio Brown·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+710–20
Steelers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Falcons: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.27Steelers: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Falcons: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.41Steelers: +0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Falcons: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 70 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Steelers’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Steelers 6.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's pass rate over expected turned over: +16.2 pts in week 4 against +0.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.5% in week 4 against 53.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.5% in week 4 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Steelers25.0%
inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 0.3 pts, 8.2 points below their season mean of 8.5 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee [50-B.Reed] at ATL -8. Touchback.
Q2 0:30 · Steelers · 2nd & goal at ATL 7 · gained nothing · -4.65 EP · −14.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 97 yards from the PIT 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
705
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1081%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2963%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.5138%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.4488%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.6850%
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5-0.39100%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Falcons0Steelers6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Falcons 1
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Steelers 33
Falcons0Steelers12
Falcons0Steelers13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 3 to the Falcons 18
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Falcons6Steelers13
Falcons7Steelers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Steelers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Falcons10Steelers13
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Steelers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.2 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 41
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 43
Falcons10Steelers19
Falcons10Steelers20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Falcons 9
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 22
Falcons10Steelers26
Falcons10Steelers27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 44
4th quarter44 plays
Falcons16Steelers27
Falcons17Steelers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 2
Falcons17Steelers33
Falcons17Steelers34
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Falcons 47
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Steelers 48
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Falcons 39
Falcons17Steelers40
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 2 to the Falcons 14
Falcons17Steelers41
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 43
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -3.5
Closing total
57
Falcons moneyline
+162
Steelers moneyline
-180
Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 57; the game landed 58 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 81°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south; 0.01 in of precipitation; clear.
Referee
John Parry
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Mike Tomlin
1st · 1:30PIT +7% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 81-J.James (29-J.Richards). PENALTY on ATL-42-D.Riley, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at PIT 42 - No Play.
3rd · 3:46PIT +7% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
