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Cleveland Browns 12, Ravens 9 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:07, 4th and 10 — 54.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:07 · 4th and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
(3:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 12–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:07, Ravens +54.2% win probability on one snap.
54.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBrownsOT 8:03(8:03) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-50-A.McClellan, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 13.
33.4pts
Unnamed on the sheetRavensOT 4:26(4:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
44.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Ravens at 8 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 2 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
3 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Ravens204 of 218 plays carry both curves
(3:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).
Swing −54.2 for BrownsExpected points +0.23 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 208
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:07CLE +54% win prob(3:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).
Overtime · 4:26CLE +44% win prob(4:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
Overtime · 8:03CLE +33% win prob(8:03) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-50-A.McClellan, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 13.
4th · 0:09BAL +33% win prob(:09) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Overtime · 3:26CLE +27% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.
Overtime · 4:20CLE +26% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry to CLE 41 for 27 yards (57-C.Mosley) [99-M.Judon]. PENALTY on BAL-23-T.Jefferson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 41.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Joseph's 37-yard field goal with 0:06 left in overtime put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:41Justin Tucker·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+33–0
2nd0:44Rashard Higgins·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfieldfrom Baker Mayfield · kick no good, hit right upright+63–6
3rd7:32Greg Joseph·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+33–9
3rd0:56Justin Tucker·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+36–9
4th0:56Justin Tucker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+39–9
Overtime0:06Greg Joseph·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+39–12
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBrowns
Ravens2–7Browns
410Total yards416
4.9Yards per play5.5
39%Success rate41%
25%Third-down rate32%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays12
23First downs19
2Sacks taken5
2Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Ravens: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Ravens: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Ravens: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.15Browns: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 84 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Browns’s 75 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Browns 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Browns11.7%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.2%, 16.4 points above their season mean of 50.7% and 1.1 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
S.Koch punts+54% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).
OT 3:07 · Ravens · 4th & 10 at BAL 39 · gained nothing · -0.23 EP · +54.2% win probability
202 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 218 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 218 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 78 yards from the CLE 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
218 of 218 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
218
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
36%
Yards
826
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0270%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0385%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.3250%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.0644%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.7550%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.4120%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5440%
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
218 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
218 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 28
Ravens3Browns0
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 26
Punt12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 35
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Browns 49
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Browns 2
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 3 to the Browns 29
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 47
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 14
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 43
Ravens3Browns6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Ravens 19
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 30
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 43
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 35
Ravens3Browns9
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 6
Ravens6Browns9
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 7
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 34
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Ravens 44
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 32
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 37
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Ravens9Browns9
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Browns 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 37
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxThree defenders
The period ended2 plays
Overtime35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Ravens 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Ravens 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Ravens9Browns12
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Ravens 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
