2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland BrownsWinner

BAL -3 upsetU 44.5 ✓Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 12–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:07, CLE +54% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:07BAL — CLE BAL ball · 4th & 10CLE 78%

(3:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:07CLE +54% win prob(3:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).
OT · 4:26CLE +44% win prob(4:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
OT · 8:03CLE +33% win prob(8:03) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-50-A.McClellan, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 13.
Q4 · 0:09BAL +33% win prob(:09) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Browns
Offensive plays	84	75
Total yards	410	416 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	39%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	4/16	6/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

25/43, 342 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

29/56, 298 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.2 expected points added · -11.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Carlos HydeRB

17 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

12 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

6/10 for 69 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

5/11 for 69 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	10	33	3:16	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 9	4	15	2:11	Interception
3	BAL	CLE 33	4	7	0:56	Turnover on downs
4	CLE	CLE 25	11	41	5:42	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 16	5	33	2:16	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 5	4	3	2:18	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 48	8	48	3:53	Interception
8	CLE	CLE 3	5	36	2:00	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 42	4	5	1:22	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 10	4	4	2:21	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 40	4	3	1:46	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 22	7	78	1:19	Touchdown
13	BAL	BAL 25	8	45	0:40	End of half
14	CLE	CLE 25	8	18	3:15	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 20	5	22	1:17	Fumble
16	CLE	BAL 42	8	30	2:59	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	BAL 25	14	63	6:36	Turnover on downs
18	CLE	CLE 25	5	19	2:15	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 12	6	27	2:05	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 20	6	12	2:14	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 26	5	11	1:51	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 14	6	19	2:59	Punt
23	BAL	BAL 34	11	52	3:37	Turnover on downs
24	CLE	CLE 25	9	38	0:47	Turnover on downs
25	BAL	BAL 45	1	13	0:05	Turnover on downs
26	CLE	CLE 25	5	6	2:03	Punt
27	BAL	BAL 7	10	48	3:37	Punt
28	CLE	CLE 14	5	32	0:58	Turnover on downs
29	BAL	BAL 39	4	0	0:25	Punt
30	CLE	CLE 16	7	65	2:55	Turnover on downs

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 78 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	29/56	298	0	1	2	-10.2
Lamar Jackson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alex Collins	12	59	4.9	-2.6
Javorius Allen	8	34	4.3	-0.3
Joe Flacco	2	13	6.5	3.1
Lamar Jackson	3	10	3.3	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Crabtree	6	12	66	21%	-2.5
John Brown	4	14	58	25%	-2.2
Willie Snead	5	7	55	12%	2.1
Javorius Allen	6	8	44	14%	-2.9
Chris Moore	1	2	20	4%	0.8
Mark Andrews	1	3	16	5%	-1.3
Nick Boyle	1	2	10	4%	-4.7
Maxx Williams	2	2	8	4%	-0.5
Alex Collins	1	4	7	7%	-1.4
De'Lance Turner	1	1	7	2%	0.4
Hayden Hurst	1	2	7	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tony Jefferson	8	1	0.0	0	0
C.J. Mosley	6	3	0.0	0	0
Eric Weddle	7	1	1.0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	2	4	0.5	0	0
Brandon Williams	5	1	1.0	0	0
Anthony Levine	3	2	0.0	0	3
Matt Judon	4	0	0.0	0	1
Tavon Young	4	0	0.0	1	1
Marlon Humphrey	3	1	0.0	0	0
Willie Henry	1	1	1.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	25/43	342	1	1	5	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Carlos Hyde	17	63	3.7	-1.8
Duke Johnson	5	35	7.0	1.2
Baker Mayfield	2	23	11.5	0.7
Nick Chubb	3	2	0.7	-2.6
Rod Streater	1	-11	-11.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Njoku	6	10	69	0	24%	-0.5
Jarvis Landry	5	11	69	0	26%	-1.5
Rashard Higgins	3	4	66	1	10%	5.4
Derrick Willies	3	5	61	0	12%	0.7
Seth DeValve	1	1	26	0	2%	1.5
Antonio Callaway	3	5	22	0	12%	-0.4
Carlos Hyde	2	3	14	0	7%	-0.1
Darren Fells	1	1	8	0	2%	0.9
Duke Johnson	1	1	7	0	2%	-0.0
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jamie Collins	8	4	1.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	7	5	0.0	0	0
Joe Schobert	5	4	0.0	0	2
Damarious Randall	5	1	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	1	0.0	1	3
Trevon Coley	1	3	0.5	0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	3	0.0	0	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	1	0.0	0	2
E.J. Gaines	4	0	0.0	0	2
Derrick Kindred	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 44.5
BAL moneyline: -171
CLE moneyline: +154

Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 21 — under by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: BAL 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Hue Jackson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.